HomeMy WebLinkAbout5H Amend 2030 Comp Plan and Maps O � PRIp
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v � 4646 Dakota Street SE
Prior Lake, MN 55372
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CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
MEETING DATE: AUGUST 12, 2013
AGENDA #: 5H
PREPARED BY: DAN ROGNESS, COMMUNITY 8� ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR
PRESENTED BY: DAN ROGNESS
AGENDA ITEM: CONSIDER APPROVAL OF A RESOLUTION DIRECTING THE PLANNING
COMMISSION TO CONDUCT A PUBLIC HEARING ON PROPOSED AMEND-
MENTS TO THE 2030 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AND MAPS
DISCUSSION: Introduction
The purpose of this item is to direct the Planning Commission to begin the formal
review process of amending the city's 2030 Comprehensive Plan by conducting a
public hearing. The proposed amendment relates to the final report for the County
Road 42 Study, Land Use and Transportation Plan, completed by WSB & Associ-
ates, dated Juty 31, 2013.
Histo
A 6-month development moratorium was approved by the City Council lasting
� through September 16; 2013 to allow further study of approximately 1,350 acres
along the County Highway 42 corridor in Prior Lake. WSB and the City held an open
house for property owners on Tuesday, June 4'h. A joint meeting was then sched-
uled on June 17th to allow the city's consultant to provide preliminary conclusions on i
this corridor to the City Council, Planning Commission and EDA. A final presenta-
tion by WSB was given to the City Council at a Work Session on July 22 before
submitting its final draft report to the city for approval.
Current Circumstances
City staff has outlined a process to complete the full review and approval process to
include the Planning Commission, City Council and Metropolitan Council as follows:
August 12 ... City Council resolution directing the Planning Commission to
conduct a public hearing.
August 13 ... Letter sent notifying adjacent communities/jurisdictions.
August 20 ... Legal notice sent to newspaper for public hearing.
Sept. 3... Planning Commission holds public hearing (Tues. meeting
due to holiday).
Sept. 9... City Council approves WSB Report and Comprehensive
Plan amendments; considers extension of the moratorium to
Dec. 1.
Sept. 13 ... Submit application to the Met Council (assuming all adjacent
community responses have been received).
Sept. 16 ... Moratorium ends (unless extended by the City Council)
Nov. 15 ... 60-day review period by the Met Council ends (unless fur-
ther extended).
Conclusion
The city will have completed its review process of the County Highway 42 Study
Area Plan by the end of the moratorium on September 16. However, more time
will be needed for the full Metropolitan Council review and approval process to be
completed by the estimated ending date of November 30, 2013.
ISSUES: In order to move this process forward as expeditiously as possible, it is appropriate
for the city council to adopt the resolution directing the Planning Commission to
conduct the prerequisite public hearing.
The issue that arose at the work session was whether the city council desires to
extend the moratorium to December 1, 2013. Council discussed the possibility of
letting the moratorium lapse on September 16. This would mean that the existing
comprehensive plan and zoning ordinance would direct any completed develop-
ment petition received before the comprehensive plan amendments have been ap-
proved by the Metropolitan Council. It is unclear whether there is really any threat
of such a thing happening. However if it did, it seems inconsistent with the city
council's original commitment to "properly re-guide" the 1,350-acre County High-
way 42 corridor and the time and dollars invested in the effort to date. It would also
mean that any successful petitioner would be protected for a year from the city
changing its ordinances. The City Council will have to decide whether or not to ex-
tend the existing 6-month moratorium for a specified time period although that is
not the question before the city council tonight. If the council desires, it could re-
• quest that as part of the public hearing, the planning commission solicit input about �
the impacts of extending the moratorium until December 1.
FINANCIAL There has already been financial investment in this effort by retaining a consultant
IMPACT: and in the time and effort the process has required to date. As the city pursues this
objective there will be additional expenditures of staff time and potentially addi-
tional consulting and/or legal costs to modify the zoning ordinance to comply with
the new comprehensive plan.
On the flip side, the amendments are intended to have the positive impacts of fa-
cilitating the right type of developments in the right places based upon topography,
natural features, transportation and infrastructural considerations.
ALTERNATIVES: 1. Motion and a second to approve a resolution directing the planning commis-
sion to conduct a public hearing on a proposed amendment to the 2030 Com-
prehensive Plan.
2. Motion and a second to deny the resolution.
3. Motion and second to table action and request staff to provide additional infor-
mation as directed by the City Council.
RECOMMENDED Staff recommends Alternative #1
MOTION:
ATTACHMENTS: Final County Road 42 Study by WSB & Associates, dated July 31, 2013
O � PRIp
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4646 Dakota Street SE
�� Prior Lake, MN 55372
RESOLUTION 13-�ocx
A RESOLUTION DIRECTING THE PLANNING COMMISSION TO HOLD A PUBLIC HEARING ON A
PROPOSED AMENDMENT TO THE 2030 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AND MAPS
Motion By: Second By:
WHEREAS, The City Council approved the selection of WSB & Associates ("WSB") per Resolution No, 13-
054 on April 22, 2013 to complete the County Road 42 Study Area Plan; and
WHEREAS, WSB has completed the final County Road 42 Study, Land Use and Transportation Plan
dated July 31, 2013, and proposed 2030 Comprehensive Plan amendments for Prior Lake;
and
WHEREAS, A Public Hearing is necessary to begin a formal review process to amend the City's 2013
Comprehensive Plan, including its submission to the Metropolitan Council and adjacent or
impacted jurisdictions; and
WHEREAS, The City Council desires to begin the formal review process related to amending the 2030
Comprehensive Plan in conjunction with the County Highway 42 Study Area Plan.
NOW THEREFORE, BE IT HEREBY RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF PRIOR LAKE,
MINNESOTA as follows:
1. The recitals set forth above are incorporated herein.
2. The City Council of Prior Lake directs the Planning Commission to hold a public hearing on Tuesday,
September 3, 2013 to consider a recommendation to amend the 2030 Comprehensive Plan in
conjunction with the County Road 42 Study, Land Use and Transportation Plan.
3. The City Council of Prior Lake authorizes City staff to initiate the review period for adjacent
governmental units and affected school districts.
PASSED AND ADOPTED THIS 12� DAY OF August, 2013.
YES NO
Hedbe Hedbe
Keene Keene
McGuire McGuire
Morton Morton
Souku Souku
Frank Boyles, City Manager
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County Road 42 Study
Land Use and Transportation Plan
July 31, 2013
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Introduction
Prior Lake has historically been described as a small town, resort
community, with development focused around Prior Lake. However, the
��� city's Iacation in the Twin Cities metra area f�as posi�ioned it for growth
. ..� f 4`�5�� ��
pressure, due to its proximity to downtawn Minneapolis (less than 20 miles►,
��` � � good access to the interstate and highway system and the availability of
•=�`.�� ;-�`� �_+_ natural and commercial amenities. Between 1980 and 2000, the City of Prior
��"';,� �� '� .��aa� Lake more than doubled in popufation, from 7,�0 to almost 16,0� residents
� � °� � �
--�� �- �''=�:��' (see Figure 1►. The Metropolitan Council's estimated papulation for 2030 is
,., n � �` 40,000 residents which, as evidenced by Figure 1, would stay on track with
����'' e � historical inereases in popufation overthe Iast30years.
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��� _ -�- - Projected Population (Met
25,�00 -- --
� Counci{)
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1984 193Q Z000 2010 2020 2f330
Figure 1. Populai�on Trends- City of Prior Lake
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�<<=�x�,t�.o,�. Introduction/ 1
County Road 42 Study • Land lise �nd Tra�;�po: taticn Fiar. City of Prior Lake
However, the past five years have brought
many adjustments in the national and regional
� development markets, both in the housing and
..�
:; ��r _ commercial sectors. Regionally, the Twin Cities saw
� � � � �- ��-- �- � �.�" �� � a 75 percent drop in residential housing permits
s� ' � �. � , >
�' between 2004 and 2008, which put a downward
� t: � �. -
. . -"'^�Py �"; _ � �! 3i�''� k F� iq �.£ �tq $.�e
�� ���. `���`� `�� `� `'�,� strain on the economy as a whole. The City of Prior
'� Lake ex erienced a similar slowdown in the ra id
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�� ;�� ��, � �` ����� �, �� residential growth it had experienced throughout
� �� � � �� _ �����r � �� �.� the 1990s and 2000s (Figure 2�, which resulted in an
�. �� � ���'�� � � �`�-� �'��. over-prediction of future housing and commercial
'����� �� ��� � � development for 2010 and beyond. It is necessary for
� ��s �
� r. �� � „ ; �
�.� �' ������'� '���,;,� �� � the eityto re-analyze its population and employment
�� �, ;
�°��� „ y; projections to accommodate these market
- ���� �� corrections and to plan forthe future.
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Figure 2. Annual Housrng Statistres- City of Prior Lake
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County Rc�ad 42 Study • Land Use and T-ar.spo�ta:ion F;ar, City of Prior Lake
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Exlsting Conditions
Environmental
��� � �
As part of this study, existing natural resources and ° �, a Y ���,�k ,�r
potential environmenta{ constra[nts were reviewed. �� ��°� �.� "� ��
Data sources were broken into three categories � �` .° ;��� ,, � �
�-_ � ,'
�
x.
Parkland and Rare Natural Feat�res, Surface �
Waters, and Soils and Slopes. Figure 4 summarizes �
,_ �� _
the environmental data collected and analyzed ��� � - � � � � ����°'" �� �_ ��°� ����
�` � �� t � »^� ���a�k'� � , r ?��s� f � i° a ,�� �"' bf; °:
The natural resources data reviewed were obtained ��� ��, �� �,�� �� { ,�,�v,��� °�� � �''��`������ ��r 19A������ �
from the foklowing resources: �"�
• MN Department of Natura{ Resaurees (DNR►
• US Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS1
• Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA) It is recommended that impacts to this area be
avoided or minimized to the greatest extent
• City of Prior Lake practicable. The US FVUS Section 7 Consultation
• Natural Resource Conservat�a� Service Website was also reviewed. No Federally-listed
(NRCS} species are present within Scott County.
• MN Pnllution Control Agency (PGA}
The DNR`s Natural Heritage Information
System (NHIS► for Scott Counry revealed
a Maple-Basswood forested located
north of County Highway 42 in Section 22
of Township 115N, Range 22W.
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�'!��N�°t�'° �°� Existing Conditions/ 4
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County Road 42 Study � Land Use and Transpo: ta;ion Flar. City of Prior Lake
..<< .. 4... . - Parks
� . � ' ��
�� A �� .� � � Two parks are located within the study area. Pike
�� . ' 'f �
,: ,��"- "� Lake Nature Area is a nature area located northeast
� �� _���P`.�, ,. of the County Highway 42 and County Highway 21
` ,� ``� intersection. The park covers approximately 47
�, �� `�, , ��,,. x � �„� acres antl provides several passive recreational op-
� � �" � �"'�_ � � = � �� �'"���'`� porCunities. The park was developed with LAWCON
"�� �� ��_�' -'��� `�� �� '�� s �� - funding, and istherefore protected under Section
�� ���'�� � � g � 61f► of the Land and Water Conservation Act. Horkey
Park at Shepard's Path is also located within the
'� �� � study area. It covers 15.8 aeres and includes a
� ��
.�°. � picnic shelter, walking trail, and is a nature preserve.
� r"`��� �� �' ���'� �.; This Park is covered under Section 4(f) ofthe
r? � � Department of Transportation Act.
_ y��,.v'^� ; R �,,, -j � �.-: "
�� F � f � � � .
� �
� . ,� +�__ ° ,
� � �������� �� � .� �� � .� � �,'� � Contaminated Property
}� ' �if� ���Y` / � fill�..�s ... Y'" '� ..
�. �� 'f �. ,� �� � ' l . , � " � -
-� j �� -�. � �r, The MN PCA's What's In My Neighborhaod web
` " . �-� `' �.. ���� application was used to perform a desktop review
} ;� .'�`�'� of potentially contaminated areas. Based on the
Pike Lake results of the desktop review, there are na patentiaf�y
� contar�inated sites within the study area.
Surface Water Federal EmergencyManagementAgeney
floodplain maps were reviewed and an area
Data on the surface waters present within the study around Pike Lake was identified as being within
area were obtained from the US FWS, DNR, and the 100-year floodplain. Impacts to 100-year
FEMA. The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance floodplain may be required to be mitigated far
was also reviewed. Various types of surface waters within the same floodplain area.
exist within the study area.
The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance was
The US FWS National Wetlands Inventorywas also reviewed. The Shoreland Ordinance applies
reviewed and 104 NWI wetlands, covering 189 to any land within 1,000 feet of a Public Water.
acres of land, exist within the study area. If impacts Within the study area, this applies to Pi6ce Lake,
to these wetlands are proposed, approvals and Jeffers Pond, Haas Lake, and Lower Prior Lake.
replacement may be required through the Wetland Structures within the Shoreland Ordinance zone
Conservation Act and US Army Corps of Engineers. must be set back 75 feet from the Ordinary Nigh
Water level (as determined bythe DNR► afthe
The DNR Public Waters Inventory maps were waterbody. In addition, no more than 3Q percent
reviewed and nine PWI wetlands were identified of land cover within this zone may be impervious
within the study area. These wetlands comprise when used for residential purposes.
104 acres of land. There is also a DNR Pub(ic
Watercourse adjacentto the study area.
�
ws�
_
& 4"°"°"`,'°`. Existing Conditions/ 6
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and T:a��sport�tion P1ar.� City of Prior i akP
$OIIS
The NRCS Soii Survey of Scott County and LIDAR �
(remote sensing technology� data were used to ��
���
determine areas that may be difficu(t ta develop. '}, � '
Soils were generally considered correctable r c�m -� �`` �.� �° �`�� �� ' ��r
� development standp�int. Sinpes abo�re 18 pc� ��� � � ��_ � � � � � ` _ �� ��
r _ � =�� x�
were identified as areas where tran�portatio� �����-~ �°° � �� � q ��`�
networks may be diificult to construct. Slope- � � �� � '�������"'� � �� �� ��
,_� _.._. o -
.. . m _. �.:_,.�
„
above 25 percentwere identif�ed as areas �r�` < '�� - -��� � �� � � � � ��,��� � � °� �r����
development in general may be difficult. .`�a � �� �'� ° Y'= � �� �'�� � °' =°��� � � �
Land Use
Study Area includes 1,361 acres of land. The
existing land use is primarily agricultural and vacant
land, butthere are also several hundreds of acres
that are wetland, lakes, and pubficly-owned
, park(and. The City's Comprehens�ve Pian, cample�ed
in 2005, guided the property in the study area for a
variety of land uses, including low, medium, and
,, w u;;� V '��,,� �, high density residential uses, business offieepark,
`� x �� �`���� � ,�-'`�� ' '� : �°�� neighborhood and community level retail, and
�.,, � .
k ' --�- ` _ _ `�`"°�� � �� hospitality.
� . ��� �.
; _,;: ,� ,� The Gomprehensive Plan isthe guiding policy
�- . ...:��,. �� documentfor all decision making within the City. ft
�,�� � � ���
� contains goals, objectives and policies to guide public
; �� � _��_� ��� �� �: � � �f and private land use development, redevelopment
' � ': �� �� and preservation of all lands and waters within the
��� ��,� " �� ��� �����ad�� � F�,�, � � �� , ,: �� City. The City's goals are centered on housing quafity
�`��°` � ��� '� � ��' ��� � ' ' ��� ���;°�� and diversity, environmenta! and nataral resouree
� �
� ��� ` `a � � � �° � ��; � , �' ``� � protection, economic vitality, security, access,
��--- �'"� -�- � Y � -�. eu-`' "��_ � - � `°����� informationtechnology,humandevelopment,infra-
structure, urban expansion area, and e�ie�ency ir�
government. The City identifies current land uses,
analyzes growth projections, and makesfuture land
use determinations. The future land use map is the
primarytool used to guide future development on
individual parcels. The text and policies in the cam-
prehensive plan are reflected in the Zoning Ordinance
and other official development controls.
A variety of different future land uses make up the
study area along the County Highway 42 corridor.
�
rYSB
�
� ''�`�''°t��. r.��- Existing Conditionsl 7
County Road 42 Study • Land lise and i7anspo: ta:ion FI�r. City of Prior Lake
�
�
Low Density Residential (R-LD) 600 acres — High Density Residential (R-HD)138 acres —
This land use designation is primarily for These areas are primarily intended for
detached single family homes at densities attached homes and apartments at densities
of 0-4 dwelling units per acre, as well as of 7.1-20 dwelling units per acre. They help
schools, churches, recreational space and to create population centers and provide
public buildings. Single family attached opportunities for affordable housing. They
units in cluster developments or mixed use are generally located near employment and
developments may be permitted through transit centers and have good access to
issuance of a conditional use permit or collector streets. High density residential
planned unit developments. Low density areas typically serve as a buffer from traffie
residential is optimal for areas with variable from commercial and industrial areas.
terrain or for environmentally sensitive
resources. They are generally served by
neighborhood parks and are buffered from
commercial and industrial uses.
Medium Density Residential (R acres — Business Office Park (C 203 acres
This land use designation provides an This land use designation is intended to serve
opportunityfor a wider range of housing a combination of small professional services
options at slightly higher densities than the with low traffic generation. Higher design
low density residential designation. Single standards promote compati6ilitywith adjacent
family homes, cluster developments and high density housing and provide opportu-
planned unit developments at densities nities for shared parking and open space.
between 4.1 and 7 units per acre are typical Some typical uses might include corporate
forthis land use. Areas designated for headquarters, professional and administrative
medium density residential are intended to be offices, and limited research, development
in close proximity to emplayment and transit and manufacturing facilities. Restaurants,
centers and have good access to collector hotels and other businesses having limited
streets. The also serve as a transition contact with the public and where no retail
between low density residential areas and sales are conducted may also be appropriate
commercial and industrial areas. as conditional uses. These areas are typically
located near arterial access points, such
as intersections of arterials and/or major
collector streets.
r � � ,
YYi,7D
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`� � '""`;°"`, r °` Existing Conditions/ 8
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� � � . � ; �.�.,� . �� � �,��� � , �� �� �� ,.���� ���:
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��� Transportation
links to Burnsville, Apple Valley and Rosemount. In
Background addition Fa iinking to other communities, County
Highway 42 links to other important transportation
The transportation network provides access facifities such as trunk highway (TH) 13 and County
to the various 4and uses and amenities within Hfghways 17, 83, 21 and 18.
a community. It also provides connections to
adjacent communities and to the greater Twin Gities Because of its role in the transportation network,
metropolitan area. Because transpo�tation, be ct Scott County has invested significant resources
roadway, transit, pedestrian/bicycle, plays a critical in studying County Highway 42 and developing
role in how a community is served, planning for long-term recommendations for its design, the
changes and upgrades to that averall network i� is amount and type of access and the supporting
an important part of any community's comprehensive transportation facilities that are needed in order ta
plan. It also requires coordination and cooperation ensure that ii will continue to serve demand into the
uvith multiple agencies to ensure thattransportatior� future in a safe and efficient manner. The county
needs are being met. Unlike land use, which the City has deve{oped the long-term recommendations
of Prior Lake has jurisdiction over, the transportation wrth the assistance of the communities along the
network has multiple owners. Some roadways are corridor in order to ensure that the planned land can
developed and maintained by the city, while others be adequately served. Some of the studies initiated
are controlled by Scott County or the Minnesota bythe caunty occurred before the City of Prior Lake
Department of Transportation �MnDOT). The transit fast updated its comprehensive plan (1999 study;
system and bicycle and pedestrian networks 2004 mapsforthe city's comprehensive plan) and
can also be developed by the city and by autside other studies occurred after the city adopted its
agencies such as the county and Metro Transit. compref�ensive plan.
County Highway 42 is one of the city's most important
roadways — however, it is owned and maintained by
Scott County. Part of the reason that it is operated
by the county is due the rale it plays in linking
communities and other transportation facilities.
County Highway 42 provides an east-west connection
to several communities, including the Cities of Savage
and Shakopee. Beyond Scott County,the highway
�
W �7O
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& °""`"'�"�. �"` Transportation/ 10
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County Rnad 42 Study • Land Use and T�ansporta�.ion F;ar. City of Prior Lake
Collector �both majar and minor► roadways provide
linkages to larger developments and community
amenities. They generally do not link communities � _ ��,� ,� ��� '
to one another. Collector roadways generallyfavor ����� ��' ���:�a.
� accesstothesystemovermobility,buttheytryto ,, �"°`'�,
balance to two competing needs. Collector roadways --- - t '� °' ��
are generally lower speed than the principal or �������°�""""�"'� ���
minor arterial routes. Collector roadways are usually ��
owned and operated by cities, although counties • Rolling Oaks— right-in/out access
have some of these facilities. Local roadways provide . Meadowlawn Road —full access with a traffic
connectiansto individual homes and commercial signal
uses. These roadways favor access over mobility and
provide short linkages within communities. These • Ferndale Avenue —three-quarter access
roadways are owned 6y cities and townships. • Gounty Highway 18 —fu{I access with a traffic
signal
The Gity of Prior Lake's transportation plan identifies
County Highway 42 as an existing principal arterial • New connection —(east of County Highway 18)
routefromthe city's eastern borderto County ri�ht-inJoutaccess
Highway 181Crest Avenue NE). It shows it as a • Aspen Avenue —full accesswith a traffic signal
future principal arterial route to County Highway . Kensington/Meadow Avenue — right-in/out
21 �Eagle Creek Avenue NE} in the future. West of
County Highway 21 it shows County Highway 42 as It should be noted thatthe maximum allowa6le
a minor arterial route. The transportation plan also access is whatthe future could accommodate.
identifies a future County Highway 21-corridor to the Traffic signals will not be installed unti( they meet the
north and the addition of major and minor collector required traffic signal warrants.
routes parallel and connecting to County Highway 42.
Following the 2008 County Highway 42 study, Scott
County made changes to its comprehensive pfan.
ROadWBy N@t1NOCk altd ACC@SS — These changes included:
Scott County
• Gounty Highway 42 has been designated as
Sinee the city's comprehensive plan was completed an existing principal arterial route to County
there have been additional studies completed and Highway 21.
updates to Scott County's comprehensive plan.
These studies and comprehensive plan amendments • County Highway 42 has been designated as
have made some changes to the functional classifi- a future pr�ncipal arterial route through the
cation af county highways and have included aecess entire City af Prior Lake.
modifications to County Highway 42. Changes have • County Highway 21 north of County Highway 42
included the following: has been constructed and has been designat-
ed as a principal arterial route.
Scott County, along with MnDOT and the Cities of
Savage and Prior Lake completed a corridor study in Because the county e�ended the principal a�terial
2008 which identified access locations along County designation heyond County Highway 21, new access
Highway 42 from C�unty Highway 21 through the City of strategies will be required for roadways west
Savage. Maximum allo�vable access identified in the of County Highway 21. Figure 7 on the following
City of Prior Lake included the following: page shows existing access as well as the access
• County Highway 21—full access with a traffic strategies identified in the 1999 and 2008 plans.
signal The Scott County CIP also calls for expansion of
- • Pike Lake Road —full access with a traffic signal County Highway 83 from twn lanes to four lanes
W� Q between Wilds Parkway and Cnunty Highway 82 with
0
�
�'�e�' Transportation/ 12
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County Road 42 Study • Land lise and Transportaticn Plar City of Prior T akP
a multi use trail. CH 83 is currently four lanes from County Highway 42 to Wilds Parkway with a multi use trail.
The project is scheduled for 2015 and will provide additional capacity and pedestrian and bike connections
between County Highway 42 and County Highway 82. This project is being led by the efforts of the Shakopee
Mdewakauton Sioux Gommunity. Longer-term, the county's plans include for widening County Highway 42 to
four lanes through the Ciry of Prior Lake and into the City of Shakopee. The expansion is currently planned for
2020.
Future Network and
Access — City and County
This study reviews the access identified in the 1999 and 2008 studies in context with the new principal arterial
designation forthe whole corridorthrough the community. Itwill also reviewthe supporting collector roadway
network identified in the city's comprehensive plan to ensure that it can support the proposed development
along County Highway 42 and takes into account environmental constraints and property owner input. As
part of the review, future traffic volumes will be identified on the existing and proposed transportation
network. At the base level, it is assumed that the county and city would work together to preserve the right
of way needed to accommodate an eventual six-lane facility on County Highway 42 with separated multi-use
trails on both sides of the eorridor to support pedestrian and bicycle mobility.
Market Qemand
The Commercial Market �
The Prior Lake Commercial and Industrial Demand Analysis (Maxfield, 2011) was prepared to provide insight
into future market conditians and demands for commercial and industrial development within the City of
Prior Lake, not justthe study area. The study projects what an additional 90Q,000 square feetwill be needed
to meet the demand for retail, office and industrial space through 2030. This is a 72 percent increase from
the t.25 million square feet that existed in 2011. Approximately 100 to 120 acres of land wi�l be needed to
accommodate this additional space. These statistics are based on economic and demographic trends, as
well as the existing commercial supply and market conditions. The table below breaks down the type of
demand projected over five year increments.
2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Total
Retail 55,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000
Office 45,00 100,00 75,000 75,000 295,000
Industrial 20,000 40,000 60,000 60,Q00 180,000
Total 120,000 265,000 260,000 260,000 905,000
FIGURE 8. Commercia! and (ndustrial Summary
2010-2030
According to the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, the County Highway 42 Study Area contains 145 acres
of land slated to be zoned for commercial (mostly community retail) and 200 acres slated to be zoned for
Business Office Park. Much of the planned industrial property lies outside of current City boundaries and is
slated to be annexed in 2014. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the need for business office parks in
the study area.
�
WSB
�
g'�"";°'��.''�' Transportation/ 14
Counry Road 42 Study •:.and Use and Transpo: tat:cn Flar, City of Prior Lake
The anticipated demand for industrial development Based on the estimated demand for additional office
suggests smaller manufacturers, construction space, the land slated for future Business Office
firms, and wholesale companies with less than 10 Parks at the corner of County Highway 42 and County
employees and will need 10,000 square feet or less. Highway 18, and the corner of County Highway 42
The stutly concludes new development of intlustrial and County Highway 21 will not be necessary. Both
space may be limited by the large amount of space sites have direct access to U.S. Highway 169 and are
being marketed in the area. well-locatetl for Business Office Parks. However,
given the anticipated need for smaller businesses
Given Prior Lake's proximity to larger regional serving the local population and business base, the
shopping areas, increased demand for future retail Business Office Park slated for the corner of Gounty
space will be gradual and will be predicated on what Highway 42 and County Highway 21 would be more
happens in places such as Burnsville, Shakopee, ideal.
and Lakeville. The demand far retail space will
likely grow in tlirect relation to the growth of the Another piece of valuable informatian regarding the
local population. The Maxfieid study reports a commercial market is to examine employment data
retail leakage in 2010 of 53 percent. Leakage is the for Prior Lake. Figure 9 summarizes the changes in
concept that demand for retail in the city will be employment over time. Employment numbers have
developed in other cities. The analysis suggests that remained re{atively low despite population increase.
reduced leakage from Prior Lake will result from In fact employment decreased between 2000 to 2010,
new small to medium size stores that serve the local when population increased 43 percent (almost 7,000
population with gaods and services and could be people) over the same time periad. This indicates
accommodated on land along County Nighway 42. that the employment market is currently weak in
Based on the 2�30 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, Prior Lake, although it is anticipated that employment
. the land designated for future retail development is . will grow by 2030. The EDA business plan anticipates .
ideally situated all along the corridor. It is, however, a growth of 1,800 new jobs in Prior Lake.
important to note that planning for future retail along
County Highway 42 may put negative pressure on
small to medium retailers located in dQwntown Prior
Lake.
14,000 ,, _ _ _ - _ _ _
� __
12.000 ;-- �----- _...... . .._. ._,. __._._. __„ _;,;,.��_.__...
��
.-
�
50,000 "� �
, _... ------- - ____. .. _ .....___ __._.� .._ ___ _
---_ ____...
♦
8,0�0 . __---- -� _ __ __.. _ _ . . _. .� �... . Projecfed Employment
(Met Council�
6,000 ;__- - --------....__ _....�__..__ __ _.__ __.
—�+�—Actual Employmert
4,Od0 !;.---- . -------------- ----.._ __
2,000 ',_--------- —
�
0 :__ --.. _...-- _... _
1970 1980 199� 2000 2010 2020 2030
igure . mp oyment rowt
-
WSB
�
& q���';°���'�' Transportation/ 15
County Road 42 Study • Land U�e and Tran�po�tahcn Flar. City of Prior Lake
350 __ _ _ _ ....
3 � _ _._ ____ ___ _ -__ ___ The Housing Market
Z � _i_. __—_ ____ As part of this study, available data related to
; housing starts, population, and employment
z� '-- -�— were analyzed at city, county, and regional
-�-Residential Building Ievels. Given the housing market slump for
150 _____... __. _---- - -----__ _ __-- Permits
the past five years, it is important to consider
ioo .' ..__._..-----------------------------......_...._- ------_-- _._..._. both long-term trends and very short-term
rebounds) ratherthan analyzing mid-term
�� ; _..-- ---..._..._._ _---------- --- housing trends.
° ' Figures 10 and 11 depict a summary of
_ zooa zoo� �oas ioi� ��i "� ,� permits issued in Prior Lake and the Twin
Figure 10. ResidentiaF Building Permits lsssued (Prior Lake) Cities from the past 10 years. These graphs
show a similartrend in new housing
starts. The housing market bottomed out in
250°0 2008/2009 at a low of less than 25 percent at
', its peak, but has begun to recover, gaining
z0000 - ---- - back to about 50 percent of the housing
' starts in 201 l/2012 as the peak of the market
1 �� __ __ in 2004. This is consistent when (ooking at
_ _ _ __.
the region, or Prior Lake.
-�°Residentia! Building �
i0000 --- ------ ----- --- --- - --.___,,,�__ perm�ts Over the past 12 years Prior Lake has, on
' average, issued 272 builtling permits per year.
s000 -- -- -- -- However, given changes in demographics
, regionally, and the current demand for
_ __ new housing, this study concludes that 272
o . _ __ __ __-- ____ _ _ .
zooa zoofi zoos Zmo z�i new housing starts per year is not likely;
____________.____—_____ _�_________ ______� the number will be lower. The demand for
Figure l i. Residential Building Permits (Twrn Cities Metro) single-family housing will remain strong, as
evidenced bythe consistent construction
of single-family housing even in the years
400 � of least construction (see Figure 12► but
3� --- --„ -- -- the amount of townhame and apartment
3 � , ,� '�._ __ __ ___ _ .__._ __ development will be weak in the near future.
r Therefore, our study uses an average of 150
zso _ _ -- - .....
� to 180 new housing starts per year when
Z � F` -___ -- —.___ --s��Ee Fa��Y analyzing the needs for additional land in the
;_ - � - ----
~ � " w"'T°"`°n°"'� stud area.
iso __ -- _ �-- --_--------____ _- Y
� —Mufti-family
SfIQ `_ ..__ 5+,
sa _ _.... __ _ _ ':: . __ _ _ ..
a : _.
_ _ _ -.,. , . _...
200012001 2002'2€I03 2t364 2005 20D6 20D7 200&2009'2010'2011 2012!
Priar Lake
- Frgure 12. Prior Lake Residentra! Bui(ding Permits byType
�SB
�
�''Ff�;°'�°.��'. Transportation/ 16
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Plans For The Future
Prior Lake 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan
The 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan identifies the community's vision for the city, and provides a braad
blueprint on how to get there. One area specifically mentioned in the plan that is within the study area
is the Vierling & Summit Preserve (at County Highway 21 and 42►. The area is envisioned as a business
incubator and technology village, including a community college, conference center and resort hotel at
the lake, all connected by trails. The plan goes into further detail to describe the vision for specific areas.
The 2030 vision for this area is described as "a 22nd century, high technology village for living, working and
playing". It will include a mix of single family homes, apartments and senior housing and cater toward high
end commercial stores such as "REI, Whole Foods, Haskell's and Hockey Giant".
� "The Vierting Properry (at County Rd. 42 and Pike
Y��� Lake Tr.) is an example of a complete eco-friendty
and healthy-living neighborhood. A mix of single
family homes, multi-family housing and daily-
needs-based businesses are connected in a pe-
° � � �� '� �-� � ����� destrian-friendly, self-sustaining communitywithin
� .� .
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The Vierling Property (at County Rd. 21 and
"° " 42) is a mix of retail and family units. The
r �^" �` - historical significance of farming and natura!
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� c�.�- . '�'������ F �,=� .,_ , � environment features like water and rottin hills
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' . �. ,,, ,� w ��� , ,... a � - . . - � intersect wrth the existing trail system."
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amount oi property guided for commercial
Prior Lake Economic and industrial use; however, little of it can be
development ready within 30-90 days. The EDA has
Development Authority compiled a commercial and industrial land inventory
Business Plan to manage this task and utilizes the 2011 Maxfield
C/I demand analysis reportto project demands
far commercial and industrial land. The EDA will
The Prior Lake EDA Business Plan is a document cor�tinue to evaluate actions necessaryto make
intended to guide the EDA towards achieving the more sites pad-ready to meet potential demands.
City's vision with regard to economic development. This effort is estimated to result in 10 new businesses
The City's goals regarding jobs and businesses and 300 new jobs by 2020.
added and increase in marketvalue are described as
follows. The "Base" figures are projections based The plan states the EDA will explore other ways to
on normal market conditions while the "New" figures encourage commercial and industrial development
represent increases beyond the historical average. in targeted areas of the City, with specific mention
to the County Highway 42 corridor. This may include
A goal of the EDA is to work towards increasing feasibility reports for utilities or building partnerships
the number of pad-ready sites for commercial and with land owners. The EDA also wishes to analyze
industrial development. The City has a significant existing city codes and fees to make Prior Lake more
"business friendly".
5-Year Time Base Jobs Plus Base Pkis New Base Value Plus
Periods Created NewJobs Businesses Businesses Increase New Value
[Historical) Created Added Added {Historical) Increase
2000-10 235 XXX 10 XXX
5-Year Avg. $17 M XXX
2011-2015 250 125 10 5 $20 M $10 M
2016-2020 350 175 15 8 $25 M $12 M
2021-2025 3Q0 150 12 6 $22 M $11 M
2026-2030 300 150 13 6 $23 M $12 M
Tota12011+ 1,200 600 50 25 $90 M $45 M
Figure 15. Expected Emp/oyment Growth-EDA Business Plan Frgure
Assumptions:
1. 2000-10 'Base information is based on city building permit activity reports or new commercral and industrial
construction, not including public facilities and mut(i-fami(y renial housing
2. Annual increase in base jobs, business and value continue trends from 2000-2010
3. Estimated rncrease due to Economic Development ('New') uses the Base times 1.5.
- 4. Total city/county/school taxes below are estimated using $2.75 per square foot of burlding space.
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County Rpad 42 Study •:.and L'�e ar:d Tran, por'aiion riar. City of Prior Lake
Industry EmpEoyees Pereent SMSC Est.
Construdion 352 �.5�0 25
Wholesale Trade 112 1.4%
Retail Trade 353 4.5%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 223 2.9%
Professional and Technical Services 162 2.1% 25
Mana ement,Admin. and �ther5ervices 659 8.49'0 25
Accommodation and Food Service 3,533 45.2% 3,250
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 144 1.9% 75
Public Administration 919 11.7iG
Other 1.361 17.4'30 400
TOTAL EMPLOYEES 7,823 1009'0 3,8Q0
Figure 96. Employment withrn sub-rndustries- Prior Lake 2010
Industry Esta6fishmertts Percent
Construction 93 16.6%
Trade, Transportation and lttilities 101 18.0%.
Financial Activities 72 12.9°/a
Professional and Business Services 120 21.4%
Education and Health Services 59 10.5%
Leisure and Hospitality 2S 5.2%
Other 5ervices 52 9.3%
PublicAdministration 4 0.7%
�ther 30 5.4°!0
TOTAL BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS 56Q 100%
Figure 17. Number of Establishments wrthin sub industries- Prior Lake 2010
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County Road 42 Study �' ar.d L:se a::d Tra��po: tation Pl:zn City of Prior T akP
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Property Owner Feedback Vierling Property — The Vierling family owns 381
acres w'rthin the study area, which includes of the
109 acres of property on the southeast corner of
lndividual Property Owners/Qwnership Groups CSAH 21 and Counry Highway 42 and 272 acres
o located on the east side of Pike Lake. Repre-
Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux seniatives farthis land have been involved in the
Community (SMSC� discussions regarding changes in land use and have
not raised dispute with the proposed designations.
SMSC Property- The Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux
Community (SMSC► owns 256 acres of land in the K. Hovnanian Property — The K. Hovnanian Properry
study area in fee or in trust Based on discussions is currently exempt from the moratorium in place,
with representatives from the SMSC, it is anticipated however it is subject to analysis under this study. The
thatthe land currently held in fee will ultimately representatives from K. Hnvnanian have been part of
beeome trust land, removing it from the land use the planning process, and wish to see the properry
jurisdiction of the City of Prior Lake. However, it is remain guided for a single-family residential land use.
beneficial to discuss what the SMSC's vision for the
properry is in order to plan for needed infrastructure Bolger Property — The Bolger property owners
improvements. The SMSC is currently undertaking have been involved in this study, and have primarily
an in-depth land use analysis and plan for their trust commented on the importance of the alignment and
properry. design afthe roadway connection between Carriage
Hills Drive and County Highway 42. Given the need
In general, the plan is to de�elop property in Prior to locate the intersection as far west as possible
Lake as mostly low-density residential, with the for access spacing and safety reasons, a future
exception of land immediately adjacent to key connection to Carriage Hills Drive will be located
intersections, where there is an opportunity for partially on the Bolger properry. The exact alignment
commercial development. More specific information and configuration will come at the time when a
will be available when the SMSC completes their land development application is. However, it is important
use planning process; however, for the purposes of to visua(ize this connection as part of the K.
this study, we included both low-density residential Hovnanian plat, since the development of one piece
land uses and commercial fand uses in planning for affects the other. The owners anticipate developing i
the ftrture ofthe SMSC-controlled property. !ow-density residential housing.
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� Plans For The Future/ 22
County Road 42 Study • �and U�e and Tt3nsportaiion i ian City of Prior T�kP
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;• .,,. : ..
Feedbackfrom two property owners located on
x�,. ,,,:,, -� ;�� � � the east of CSAH 18 in the study area, their plans
_� r - ` `' Y-�� ' were to construct and stay in their single-family
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;� A e�� �� �' homes for the foreseeable future.
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Su r� ��rve � Y � Previous Summit Preserve Property — City
� staff engaged with representatives of Cardinal
� - � Development, the company that currently
..•
� '°°� controls the former Summit Preserve parcel.
�� � � �� They envision a mixed use concept on their
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Community Feedback
Several comments regarding proposed land uses There was interest expressed in seeing more
were received from the public at the draft plan community gardens with new tlevelopment
meeting held on July 9, ZQ13. Regarding land use, a as a way to promote local sustainability and
comment was received that it makes sense for the cammunity involvement. Interest in multi-modal
commercial lot on the south side of Fountain Hills transportation options, specifically infrastruc-
Drive NE to be rezaned to high density residential. In ture for pedestrians and cyclists on new or
addition,there was concern expressed overthe entire improved roads was afso inquired about as a
northeast corner of County Highway 42 and County way to allow residents opportunities to exercise
Highway 21 being guided for mixed use. Access to and save money. Comments were receivetl
this corner is a concern. Commercial will be most regarding the potential for public transpor-
important if County Highway 42 and County Highway tation within the City of Prior Lake, such as a
21 is to become a gatewayto Prior Lake. Access and circulator bus that connects neighborhoods to
size of parcels should not be limited. desirable locations like downtown Prior Lake,
Village Market and the Savage commercial
There was also a concern overthe parcel atthe district, orthe potential for a street car along
northwest corner of Pike Lake Trail and County county highways 21, 42, and trunk highway 18.
Highway 42 being entirely guided for commercial
when wetlands are an issue on the site.
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Counry Road 42 Study • Land Use and T�ansportation :;.�n City of Prior Lake
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Summary of Land-use
Findings
Below is a summary of this study's findings, based
on an analysis of the existing conditions:
' • 80 to 90 acres of additional commerc'ial prop- • not have ready access to sewer and water
erty is needed city-wide to meet the demand facilities, and have significant enviranmental
by 2030; therefnre, the amount of land guided resources; therefore development should be
as commercial, business office, and retail in staged accordingly.
the study area should be reduced. However,
given the E[}A's gnals for job growth, having • Properly owners and the City of Prior Lake
extra land available for commercial develop- have a desire ta develop t�teir property in a
ment is also desirable. market-driven way; therefare, their individual
thoughts and desires should influence the
• 20 to 30 acres of industrial land is need- outcome of this study
ed city-wide to meet the demand by 2030;
therefore, there may be an opportunity for
some additional industrially guided land in
the study area.
• Current housing starts suggest an average
of 150 to 180 new starts annually, resulting
in an additional 2,400 to 2,800 households in
Prior Lake �which is significantly lowerthan
the 2005 Comp Plan anticipates►; therefore, a
discussion about the location of new resi-
dential housing in Prior Lake is necessary.
• Some property in the study area has immedi-
ate availability. The easternmost properties
in the study area (Summit Preserve)
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County Road 42 Study • Land lise and Transportation Flar. City of Prior Lake
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Land Use
Recommendations
Given the uncertainty of the future, a flexible 11 Reduce the amount of (and guided for solely
approach was of paramountvalue when proposing residential. Currently, 60Q acres af the study area
an alternative land use scenario for the study area. are guided for fowdensity residential,l8 acres �
However, equally important are the properry owner's guided for medium density, and 136 acres guided for
visions and the stated visian afthe eammunityfound high density housing. This study recommends
in the Prior Lake 2Q30 �sion and Strategic Plan. a f�xible approach through establishment of a
Given the findings of this study, Figure 18 outlines mixed-use district ratherthan limiting land to primary
changes to the land use map and associated com- low density, sing(e-famify uses.
prehensive plan amendme�t are rec�mmended . • Proposed R-Low Density (R-LD►
362 acres gross total
Average of 2 dwelling units per acre
• Proposed R-Medium Density (R-MD}
15 acres gross total
_,.��: • Proposed R-High �ensity (R-HD)
�= 53 acres gross total
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Couniy Road 42 Study •' and lise and :'ransporta:icn Flan City of Prior Lake
the proposed development and roadway network, • 104 acres gross residential at 5 dwelling units
therefore it makes sense to leave fl exibility in the per acre
location of commercial development to the
proposer. Given the site`s proximity to future The Mixed Use 3 District is also well suited for
parkland and high value natural resources, it seems immediate development. It too is owned by one
likely that any residential development would be individual and is located in an area that is well
low-density residential. It makes sense to guide this served by the transportation system, but also
area for some high density housing to serve as a has high natural resource value. While the city
buffer between commercial and lawer density anticipates most of the land near Pike Lane being
residential uses. This site, however, is challenged developed as lowdensity residential, the remaining
by the necessity of a developer to have to assemble 207 acres of the Vierling property is anticipated to be
several properties owned by multiple property developed with as a Planned Unit Development with
individuals. a variety of uses proposed.
Proposed Mixed Use 2 Q Key to developing this parcel will be obtaining
adequate backage roads to serve local traffic, as
•(50 percent commercial; 25 �ercent R- Medium outlined in the transportation reecomendations.
Density, 25 percent R-High Density► This study envisions the development of inedium
• 66 acres gross tntal density housing to serve as a transition between
• 33 acres gross commercial lowdensity housing and commercial uses. While 52
acres of commercial use for this property is prabably
• 16 acre gross residential at 7 units per acre more than adequate to accommodate the market, it
is important to understand the city's 2�30 Strategic
This proposed mixed use district is likely to be the Plan and Vision guidance for this area as a premiere
most compatible with immediate devefopment The office/technology campus in the future.
entire properry is owned by one individual, it is well
served by sewer and water, and its Caeation on the
southeast corner of County Highway 21 and County proposed Mixed Use 4 .
Highway 42 position it well for the development
market. The city desiresta see half ofthe mixed use • 125 percent commercial, 75 percent R-Medium
piece be developed with commereial uses catering Density►
to traffic along the corridor, but recognizes that • 49 acres gross total
development may 6e somewhat constrained bythe
existence of a large wetland complex. The adjacent • 12 acres gross commercial
properry guided for low density and high density • 37 acres gross residential at 4 dwellings units
residential will probably ultimately become part of an per acre
overall development plan, but the city felt it important
to retain those designatiQns, given existing adjacent The area on the northeast comer of Caunty Highway
land uses. The study antieipates same medium density 18 and County Highway 42 has previously had a
residential also planned forthe mixed use districtto development proposal, Summit Preserve. While that
serve as a transition between the low density land approval has expired, the landowner still intends to
uses and commercial along the corridor, develop it as a mixed use site. Therefore, this piece
is also guided for medium density residential, with a
small amount of commercial likely near an access
Proposed Mixed Use 3 � onto County Highway 42. However, this properiy is
• 207 acres gross total challenged by the immediate lack of full sanitary
sewer service, and may be a number of years before
'(25 percent commercial, 50 percent R-Medium service is readily availa6le.
Density; 25 percent R-Low Density►
• 52 acres gross commercial This study does not foresee immediate development
- �+ • 51 acres gross residentia) at 2 dwelling units
��78 per acre
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&9smciarc.c /rsc. RBCOIllfllBrlC�BtIOf1S� 27
_. . „ __ _._ ,- _._ City of Prior Lake
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atthis site. When development does accur, it should Proposed Mixed-Use 5
; be noted that a new access point at Aspen Avenue
should be anticipated, at which time access from •(SMSC) (75 percent low-density residential, 25
Gounty Highway42ta Kensington and Mead6w percent commercial►
should be eliminated, and alternative access . �g2 acres grosstotal
from the new Aspen Avenue would be made to
accommodate existing development • 46 acres gross commercial
• 136 acres gross residential at 2 dwelling units
4) It is anticipated that the land current[y nwned per acre
in fee by SMSC will be entered inta trust prior to
its development. However, given the impaets this 51 Add a land use designatian for publicl
area has on transportation and land use planRing, semi-pu6lic. This study recommends the addition
assumptions were made about land use in the area, of a public/semi-public land use district to the
in consultation with SMSC. Therefore, portions of this land use plan. The purpose of this district is to
land have been designated for Inw-density housing accommodate future or existing land uses dedicated
and for mixed use, as depicted below. This allows for to park, permanent open space, large stormwater
proper planning of the area, but acknawledges that management ponds, or other uses that are nat
final layout and plans fall within the control of the classified in other districts and are used to benefit
SMSC, especially if the land is put under trust. the public. Other uses include land owned by
Scott County for right of way purposes and utility
substations. This district allowsthe cityto identify
lands intended for use to benefit the public and not
guided for development. The total acreage proposed
for Public/Semi-Public in the study area is 87 acres.
,
YYs70
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89 s`°`""`�•'"° Recommendations/ 28
I
County Road 42 Study • �and Use and :'rar:sportation rlar. City of Prior i akP
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Future The city confirmed that local roadways were
Trans ortation Plans needed both north and south of County Highway42
p to support development that is planned along the
corridor. The city acknowledged that the supporting
Draft Concept Plan —June 2013 roadways should function as collector roadways
—thatthey should finkthe develapmentto Gounty
In addition to collecting information about previous Highway 42 and not necessarily provide direct
studies and plans for Gounty Highway 42, meetings driveway access.
with city and county staff were held to better
understand any existing transportation concerns as The City of Prior Lake directed the consultant team to
well as to identify any new information that should use the information obtained from the environmental
be included as part of the study. As part of the scan performed as part of this study to help identify
discussions, previous plats and concepts that had where it would generally be feasible ta construct
been submitted to the city (but were ultimatefy not continuous supporting roadways. Locations
approved or built— due to changes in the economy) where there were significant slopes, wetlands, and
were also reviewed. Additionally, the county and city sensitive species/resources were to be avoided if
were asked to provide input on the recommendations practical.
of the previous plans and studies —were there things
that in hindsight did not look like it could work? Finally, information from past plans was used to
understand generally what traffic volumes were
The meetings with city and county staff confirmed expected in the future based on land use in the city's
that County Highway 42 needed to be treated as a 2030 Comprehensive Plan. While the study partners
principal arterial throughout the entire city. This understood that land use will be changing — it was
means that the access originally identified in the 1999 a base to understand general demand in the area
study of County Highway 42 is no longer applicable. and to understand the demand for through traffic on
In the 1999 study, the area west of County Highway County Highway 42.
21 (Eagle Creek Avenue) was itlentified as a minor
arterial. Additionally, the county indicated that it The information above was used to develop a
would prefer to have access along County Highway preliminary supporting roadway and access concept
42 reflect opportunities that are actually feasible — plan that was presented to property owners along
taking into consideration the types of deveiopment, the corridor on June 4, 2013. This same information,
resources that have to be avoided, etc. with comments received from the property owners
noted, was presented at a joint planning commission
and city council meeting on June 17, 2014. Figure 19
- shows the original preliminary concept.
WSB
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Counry Road 42 Study � Lanci Use and Transportaticn rian City of Prior T akP
€
�
�
Steps in the Forecasting
Process _. � �
�_ _._.�
The Scott County Travel Demand Model follows
a standard four-step process, in which the major .,�
model components are:
• trip generation �
• tri tlistribution LL �n��X x '�
p � �.�„ ,._=� . � �.. _
• mode ehoiee
� � �� , �� >
• traffic assignment 4 ' * ���
s,�� �� _�.�;�
Trip Generation Mode Choice
The first step in forecasting travel is trip generation. Here, trips between a given origin and destination
Information fram land use, popu►ation and economic are spfit into trips using different modes of travel
forecasts is used to estimate how many person-trips including public transit and personal vehicles.
will be made to and from each zone. Trip generation Calculations are conducted that compare the attrac-
is estimated by applying trip generation equations to tiveness of travel by different modes to determine
socioeconomic information. Trip production zones their relative usage. The Metropolitan Council's
are based on household characteristics such as the Regional Travel Demand Model includes a sophis-
number of peopfe in the household and the number ticated made choice model. This project maintains
of vehicles available. Trip attractions are based consistency with all of the coefficients, networks
primarify on the number and type of jobs (retaii or and processes.
non-retail� in a zone.
Trip Distribution Traific Assignment
In the trip distribution stage, trip ends are linked The fourth step in the modeling process assigns
together to form an origin-destination pattern of trips. trips to specific routes. These routes are first
The number of trips between two points is dependent determined based on the shortest travel times
upon their attractiveness for a given trip purpose and between origins and destinations. The assigned trip
the separation (distance or travel time► between the volumes are then compared to the capacity of each
points. A zone with a large number of trip attractions link to determine which links, if any, are congested.
will receive a greater number of trips than one with If a fink is congested, the speed on the link slows,
a small number of trip attractions. The other primary resulting in longer travel time assigned to that
factor in trip distribution is distance. The number of link. Trips on congested links will be shifted to less
trips from an origin zone to a given destination zone congested links until there is a system-wide balance
decreases with increasing trave{ time between the between travel demand and travel supply.
origin zone and the destination zone.
�
WSB
�
& Re4"�'°°�.'°� Recommendations/ 33
Couniy Road 42 Study • Land Use and �'.a��porta:ion Flan City of Prior i�kP
Travel Forecasting Process
Travel forecasting involves a series of mathematical equations that attempt to simulate human travel
behavior. The models follow a sequence of steps that answer a series of questions about traveler
decisions. The goal is to simulate choices that travelers make in response to a given system of highways.
Many assumptions need to be made about how people make decisions, the factors they consider, and how
they may react to a particular alternative. The travel simulation process follows trips as they begin at a
trip-production zone (e.g., Home), move through a network of links and nodes (roads and intersections►, and
end at a trip-attracting zone {e.g., Workplacel.
TAZ Camp Plan Data Propased Change
Deuelapment
2030 Pap 2�30 Emp �03(1 Pop 2�30 Emp 2�30 Pap 2030 Emp
1784 2252 389 3231 1f162 979 673
L85Z 402 545 470 22 68 -523
1$54 107 35 119 14 12 -21
1855 493 341 1162 387 669 46
1856 520 0 1300 557 780 557
1857 iC13 576 1105 8$6 92 310
L943 349 0 1341 304 492 304
1973 1434 186 2377 Z314 943 1128
1976 1207 38 1�36 0 429 -38
I978 1582 139 699 ?34 -883 595
Tatal 9359 2249 13440 5280 �081 3C31
-
W ..7B
�
�'.�t"�'°t�.'. r",�� Recommendations/ 34
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As shown in Figure 23, TAZ zones 1784,1852-1859 2030 Traffic Volumes
1943,1973,1976, and 1978 directly feed traffic into The traffic projections for County Highway 42 are
the project area. The Scott County and City of Prior shown in Figure 24. It should be noted that the model
Lake planning organizations agree that the population takes into account transportation improvement
and employment in these zones is different than was projects that have been funded at the regional and
originally planned. These local changes in population �ocal level.
and employment estimates affect year 2030 forecast
� traffic volumes in the study area and have been
applied to the Scott County Travel Demand Model.
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County Road 42 Study • Land L'se and iranspo. ta'ion Flar_ City of Prior Lake
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Summary of
Transportation Findings
Below is a summary of the findings related to the
transportation network and access along County
Highway 42.
• County Highway 42 is an important roadway in • It is the county's intention to preserve 200 feet
the regional transportation network. It needs of right of way along County Highway 42 in or-
to be able to provide safe and efficienttravel der to ensure that adequate capacity can be
within the county. Because of its importance, provided for along the corridor. As plats and
Scott County has identified it as a Principal development along the highway are submit-
Arterial Raadwaythroughoutthe county— ted for review and comment,this area must
including all of Prior Lake. Preuiously, it was be shown for roadway and trail purposes.
identified as a Principal Arterial from the east- • Future demand (trips) on County Highway 42
ern city limits to County Highway 21. will increase as land uses intensify and more
• County Highway 42 needs to function at a development occurs.
high-level in order to accommodate future • County highway connections to County High-
traffic demand. way 42 (such as County Highways 83, 21 and
• Access on County Highway 42 will be limited to 18) also play an important role in the transpor-
preserve mobility and maintain safety. Road- tation network. Access to these roadways
way connections to County Highway 42 should is also managed by the county to ensure
generally be collector roadways and above, reliable traffic flow and safety.
with a majority of the connections being other • Because access is limited to the county
principal or minor arterials. highway network, a majority of the access to
future development will need to come from
the city street netwark and the street network
operated by the SMSC. Therefore, these
street networks need to provide continuous
travel where feasible.
�
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�4.4.rsociazc.e.Inc. R8COI711llef1C�8tIOf1S� 38
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and T.anspo: tati�n F1ar, City of Prior Lake
• Portions of the existing roadway network will
be above capacity (roadway will become
congested► without improvements. Segments
of roadways expected to experience conges-
tion include:
• County Highway 42 west of County High-
way 83 (Canterbury Road S)
• County Highway 42 between County High-
way 83 and County Highway 18
• Based on the network identified in the revised
concept plan, adequate connections shauld
be provided for lacal trips.
• The proposed roadway network and access
plan has some flexibility as impiementation
occurs. Alignments and exact access loca-
tions may be tweaked as plats are submitted
and reviewed bythe counry and city. Howev-
er, roadway connectians that are shown as
continuous need to be so. The type of access
shawn in the plan is the expected access
along the corridor.
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&.Ascndatc.r, /nc ReC�mmendatl�n$� 39
County Road 42 5tudy • Land li::e and Transportaticn Piar. City of Prior Lake
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Transportation
Recommendations
Belaw is a series of recommendations for the
transportation network. Most of the improvem�nts 1} The proposed transportation network
identified on the map should be implemented and access map (Figure 25) should guide the
as development occurs. However, timing for development of local street connections that
improvements such as traffic signals will be support intensification of land use along County
dependent upon meeting certain requirements called Highway 42.
traffic signal warrants. Until an intersection meets
ihose warrants, it is not good nor safe practice 2� The proposed transportation network and
to instafl a traffic signal. The county and city wiE! access map show the ultimate connections and
coordinate with one another on the installation access types that are proposed along/near the
of proposed traffic signals, just as they will fnr corridor. Because development is incremental,
proposed roadways and access as pfats eome in for nat all of the changes will be made at once, nor
review and approval. are they likely all needed at once. This means
that some connections may not be completed
Recommendations for the future roadway network until additional development occurs and some
and access locations included feedback from access locations may not get their traffic
stakeholders atthe July 9th meeting, results of the signals right away. Traffic signals should only
travel forecasting and input from city an� county staff. be installed once the intersection meets the
required signal warrants.
3► The supporting roadway network should be
sensitive to environmental resources within the
community. Impacts to wetlands, slopes, etc.
should be avoided if possible and minimized if
they cannot be avoided.
�
WSB
�
&�°`°"""`.�"` Transportation / 40
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