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Home My WebLink About7C Marketing report study AGENDA #: PREPARED BY: SUBJECT: DATE: BACKGROUND: DISCUSSION: ISSUES: STAFF AGENDA REPORT (2 7 (c) ~ FRANK BOYLES, CITY MANAGER \ RECEIVE PART I OF MARKETI RT FOR COMMERCIAL, OFFICE, INDUSTRIAL STUDY OCTOBER 3, 1994 In June the City Council received a Commercial, Office, Industrial Study report from Public Affairs Consulting. The report identified various land areas lying along major roads and intersections, together with suggestions for potential commercial, office, or industrial uses for each. The Council received and discussed this report and subsequently deleted one site and added another for further review and evaluation during the marketing phase of the study. The attached report represents the first of two phases of the marketing segment of the Commercial, Office, Industrial Study. Dick Krier of James R. Hill and Associates will provide the Council with a presentation summarizing the draft report. The second half of the market study will be based on the data contained in this report and will be presented to the City Council on October 17. Contained in the draft report is information regarding population, employment, the definition and location of the Prior Lake trade area, identification of dominant economic industries in the area and various projections with respect to this data. This report can be viewed as the assumptions and database which Mr. Krier will use to draw the conclusions which the Council seeks regarding: 1. How much and what type of commercial, office and industrial land will the current and future market in Prior Lake absorb and 2. Where in the trade area should such land be zoned. Since the assumptions and data affect the conclusions, Mr. Krier is seeking Council input at this time. The Council should feel free to ask Mr. Krier questions about the data he is using, its source, the methodology he has used or any definitions which are being used in the study. It would also be appropriate to ask Mr. Krier to more thoroughly discuss the specific information he will provide to the Council in Phase II of the study. -1- 4629 Dakota St. S.E., Prior Lake, Minnesota 55372-1714 / Ph. (612) 447-4230 / Fax (612) 447-4245 AN EQUAL OPPORTUNllY EMPLOYER . r' "'- ...'T........ ALTERNATIVES: There are two alternatives: 1 . Accept, the data, assumptions and methodology as proposed in Mr. Krier's draft study. 2. Ask Mr. Krier to consider other issues, data or methodology as may be appropriate in order to provide the Council with the information they believe will be required to determine the specific amount and type of commercial, office and industrial land to be designated in the 2010 Comprehensive Plan based upon market considerations. RECOMMENDATION: Depends upon City Council perspective. ACTION REQUIRED: Listen to the presentation and provide direction as appropriate to the City Staff and Mr. Krier. Attachments AG7C.CC -2- CITY OF PRIOR LAKE ~ Comprehensive Planning Development Services Land Planning Urban Design & Redevelopment Civil Engineering Land Surveying COMMERCIAL, OFFICE, AND INDUSTRIAL STUDY PART I . 1 September 28, 1994 By dB) James R. Hill, Inc. PLANNERS / ENGINEERS / SURVEYORS 2500 W. Cty. Rd. 42. Suite 120. Burnsville, MN 55337 612/890-6044 Fax 890-6244 I' IT Forward This analysis has been prepared by James R. Hill, Inc. so that we may assist the City in its commercial, office, and industrial land use comprehensive planning deliberations. The primary purpose of this analysis is to forecast economic market demand for commercial, office, and industrial land uses for the period of 1994 to 2030. The analysis does not purport to make determinations with respect to the acceptability of a particular proposal for rezoning or other development in the market area. The factual information for this analysis was developed by James R. Hill, Inc. as thoroughly as possible, within the budget, on the basis of the information currently available from local information, metropolitan, state and national sources, as well as private sources. Although the estimates rely on economic and demographic information which is provided by the Census Bureau, lVletropolitan Council, State and other Federal Agencies, the estimates and judgments are solely those of the analyst who conducted the study. Of course, the estimates and judgments made on a va i I a b I e information as of Sept. 1994 may be modified considerably by subsequent market development, changes in financing, and changes in local, Metropolitan, State and National policy and events. The estimates and judgments may also be modified considerably by individual decision-making, especially the Mdewakanton Dakota Community, and by net aggregate decision-making by other state and national businesses. The most reliable data source was the 1990 Census, and the State Employment Statistics. The prospective demand estimates expressed in this analysis are based upon an evaluation of the factors available as of September 1994. They cannot be construed. as forecasts of the building activity; rather, they express the prospective mar k e t demand which could be maintained by a reasonable balance in demand and supply relationships under current conditions and possible future trends derived from current conditions and past trends. Fundamental qualifications which affect the validity of the overall market evaluation presented here include the following assumptions: . The nation as a whole, the State of Minnesota, and the Twin City Metropolitan Area (TCMA) will not suffer any sudden disaster or prolonged economic decline which would substantially reduce household income and affect expenditures for goods and services. · The basic sources of pertinent, statistical information quoted In this report are sufficiently accurate in terms of their estimates to be reasonably useful for planning and projection purposes. . The best available data obtainable within the budget has been utilized in evaluating population characteristics and growth prospectus within the Txade Area considered tributary to Prior Lake. Therefore, the subsequent market analysis is based upon the assumption that the population estimates and projections used in this analysis are accurate within the limits required for such an analysis. . Competitive conditions as they currently exist, or are anticipated in the immediate future, will not alter to such a degree as to significantly influence the conclusions. . The Mdewakanton Dakota Community does not develop land outside of the land designated for commercial, industrial development, and present conditions will not alter from the current plans for major land uses. It should be noted that if any of the forgoing assumptions become radically altered, it may be necessary to revise the results of this analysis so as to take into account the changed conditions. Summary Prior Lake is experiencing a healthy economic condition which directly affects the generally healthy condition of the TClYIA. The local factors which have the greatest influence on the Prior Lake economy are: 1. Burnsville Regional Shopping Center, 2. The transportation system, 3. The Industry along the Minnesota River, 4. The Mdewakanton Dakota Entertainment Complex which centers on the casinos, 5. The residential growth in the Trade Area, 6. The natural lake region, and 7. The economic health of TCMA . The Prior Lake retail Trade Area is substantially larger then the City, and the casino trade area is regional in nature. Within the retail Trade Area there are about 18,000 people in 8,500 households. These households spend over $321,000,000 a year for goods and services with over $96,000,000 spent in the City. Within the City there are about 6,600 people employed in local business with the largest single employer in the entertainment industry. Retail sales in the City are about $540,000,000 which indicates a large volume 0 f sales are made to other companies in the Trade Area rather than individuals or to individuals and companies outside of. the Trade Area. By the year 2030, population in the trade area is expected to as high as 72,241 people with 24,801 households spending $1,241,600,000. Given present trends employment could 10,300 people or higher. reach about reach It is estimated that retail space will increase from 360,950 square feet to over a 1,300,000 square feet by 2030. At the same time office space needs could increase from 231,269 square feet to just over 724,000 square feet. Because of the competition from near by industrial parks, the smallest increase will probably be in industrial space needs with space increasing from just under 65,000 square feet to almost 121,000 square feet. This estimate could drastically change do to large industrial investments by the Mdewakanton Dakota Community or other unpredictable variables. Introduction This analysis is divided into two parts. The first part, which is the subject of this report, sets the stage by tabulating the existing economic situation, and by projecting population, employment, and spendable income. The first part concludes with an analysis of the supply and demand for retail (commercial), office, and industrial space in Prior Lake. The second part, which will be presented in 2 weeks will allocate the space demands to the areas delineated by Public Affairs Consulting in their report dated 6/94. Back!!round Local Economy The economy of Prior Lake is tied to the Twin City Metropolitan Area (TCMA) economy by the commuter aspect of the population, the casinos, and by the communities location on the suburban edge. This tie and the economic health of the TCMA is paramount to the economic growth of Prior Lake. Prior Lake was originally developed as a "free standing community", which means a non suburban community, not dependent on the regions central city, Minneapolis. The community provided goods and services to the agricultural industry in the area and to the resort/summer home industry associated with the lakes. In the late 1960's, and during the suburban growth periods of the 1970's and 1980's, commuter residential growth dominated this area with a boost from the TCMA's only "wet industrial park" in Shakopee and commercial and industrial growth in Burnsville especially the Regional Center (Burnsville Center) located about 3 miles east of the community. Today's economy depends on the commuter, the casinos and related entertainment industry and a limited growth of secondary industries, i.e. industries that result from the residential and other growth in the area but are not a cause of the residential growth in the area. The area also exhibits some growth due to the lakes as a retirement potential and continues to provide goods and service to a smaller agricultural industry. Population Trends (Exhibit A) The 1990 Trade Area population was 23,058 compared to the City of Prior Lake which had a population of 11,482. Recent 1994 estimates have shown a population increase of over 4,000 people in the Trade Area. .' The population within the Trade Area is expected to increase by 2.83% per year compared to a state wide increase of .88%, and a national increase of 1.04%.1 This faster increase is mostly the result of the TCMA growth, but it is also a result of the shift in industrial growth south of the Minnesota River, predominantly in the Shakopee industrial park area and other employment sectors which are growing southwest of the river. Future population growth should also be stimulated by improved transportation access to Interstate 35, the Shakopee Bypass via County Road 21, Shakopee Bridge, and the new Bloomington Ferry Bridge. Household Trends In 1990 there were 7,551 households in the trade area. It is estimated in 1994 that there are 8,934 households, and we are forecasting a household growth rate of 2.87% per year compared to the state household growth rate of .86% and the national growth rate of 1.05%.2 Trending the household growth we would estimate household growth to be as follows: Year Households 1990 7,551 2000 10,587 2010 14,083 2020 18,689 2030 24,801 Emolovrnent Trends (Exhibit B) The City has taken positive steps to attract business and employment. It is estimated that employment will grow from 3,000 employees in 1990 (5,151 in 1994) to 12,296 employees by 2030. 1 CAC! Marketing Systems 2 CAC! Marketing Systems 80000 en z 0 en 60000 a: w a.. u.. 40000 0 a: w m :5 20000 ::) z POPULATION PROJECTIONS EXHIBIT A 72.241 ;l' ~ ~ ~ .~ 56.162 iii ~ '" ~ '" 42.416 " " ....e ............ 32.360 I!f ........ 17.937 23.058........ 20,000 24.~ _ -1:1" 18.300 _ _ - a 14,600 -.. - - --.. . 11,482 __..---- 7.284 ~ . · Prior Lake Existing Corporate Limit! a Trade Area SOURCe; CACl. JRH.lnc. and Metropolitan Council o 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 10000 EXHIBIT B 12.296 ..s .... .... .... en 9000 8.711 '" .zr z '" 8000 " 0 " " en 7000 7.126 ",. a: '" w 6000 " a.. '" 5.540 r u.. 5000 ~ ~ 0 4000 ~ ~ a: 3.000 ~ 3000 2580 _ "T!( W ... 1.872 m 2000 1.584 :5 1.295 -+ - - - ... ::) 1000 447 1.007. _ _ - ..... - - - _ 569_--- . ---'"1f,---.....--- 1030 Z 258 . JI jC'o- - ....554 13 871 . 0 1 1 .--, -'--1 . I . I 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 PRIOR LAKE EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS a TOTAL EMPLOYED · RETAIL · INDUSTRIAL SOURCE: CAC:, JRH.INC.. AND METROPOLITAN COUNCIL .1 The industry growth employment will be slower than the areas which are closer to the major transportation systems. The one exception is the Casino and the related entertainment industry. The entertainment is a basic industry*, which has a separate growth rate. Also, service industry employment is expected to grow faster because of the Casino and the rapid population growth. Casino and related Mdewakanton Dakota Community employment is estimated at 3,000 employees. Employment projects are translated into office space' needs and industrial space needs. In addition to employment, competitive space in surrounding communities affects the amount of space that will be needed in Prior Lake. Appendix A is a list of Industrial space in surrounding communities Income and Buyin~ Power Within the Trade Area, the existing spendable income is estimated at over $321,500,000. By the year 2030, this spendable income is expected to reach $1,241,600,000. This represents an increase of $23,000,000 per year. Of the estimated $321,500,000 spendable income, approximately 30% is spent in the Trade Area and an estimated 70% is spent outside of the Prior Lake Trade Area. There is a direct relation to spendable income and the sale of goods and services. A large portion of household income is spent on shelter, transportation, and service outside the Trade Area. Only 30% is available for the personal services and other related items which are at least particularly acquired in the Trade Area. In Prior Lake's case even less is spent in the Trade Area because of the close proximity of the Burnsville Regional Center. The following table is an estimate of future spendable income in the Trade Area. Year Spendable Income 1980 195,700,000 * Basic Industries are businesses which provide goods and services which are sold outside of the trade area, i.e. the Casino bringing money into the area from outside the trade area. Basic industries have a multiplier effect of creating other service industries and related businesses by creating employment, needed goods and services themselves. 1990 321,500,000 2000 470,600,000 2010 652,300,000 2020 900,600,000 2030 1,241,600,000 Retail Trade Area Prior Lake is part of the sub-market area consIstmg of the TCMA southwest of the Minnesota River, and generally west of Interstate 35. Of course, the sub-market area is part of the larger Twin Cities Metropolitan Market Area. Within this sub-market area, which is dominated by the regional shopping complexes in and around Burnsville Center, are several smaller community trade areas and within these community trade areas are neighborhood trade areas. A Prior Lake Trade Area map is incl uded in this report. Each of the trade area types (regional, community, and neighborhood) are services by corresponding retail goods and service shopping areas. For example, the Burnsville Regional Center consists of both regional retailers, community retailers, and a limited number of neighborhood retailers and service providers. Community shopping areas usually consist of community and neighborhood retailers and service providers. The Regional Center with its large department stores and specialty shops usually has a trade area of from 4 to 6 miles. The minimum population within the regional trade area is from 150,000 to 200,000 people. The centers consist of from 50 to 100 stores and are usually 400,000 to 1,000,000 square feet of floor space. Burnsville Center, Southdale, Eden Prairie Center are local examples of Regional Centers. The Mall of America is an example of a Super Regional Center with a trade area of up to 400 miles. The community center is usually dominated by at least one grocery store or super drug store. This type of center is 100,000 to 250,000 square feet, has a trade area of from 2 to 3 mile radius, with 15 to 40 stores. The minimum population in the trade area is from 35,000 people to 70,000 people. . The HUB area in Richfield, Oxboro Center area in Bloomington, and the combined centers along TH 13 near County Road 21 are examples of community centers. The neighborhood center consists of service providers, several retailers, a convenience store and gas station. The minimum neighborhood center support population is from 4,000 people to 10,000 people, and the trade area is 1/2 to- 1 mile radius. The Center at TH 13 and County Road 42 is an example of a neighborhood center. The Prior Lake Retail Trade Area, referred to as Trade Area in this report, consists of an area about 5 miles in radius from the city center with a larger geographic area toward Jordan and a lesser area towards the Burnsville Center. Within this 5 mile Trade Area there is both a primary and secondary trade area which need not be identified for the purpose of this study. Also, within this trade area are a number of neighborhood centers, which, as previously discussed, have smaller trade areas within the Trade Area. The Prior Lake Retail Trade Area exhibits the following general characteristics: Population 23,000 people Households 7,551 Median Age 29.7 years Median Household Income $46,405 A verage Household Size 3.05 people Existing Industrial Space 360,084 SF. 38,590 SF. Existing Retail Space Existing Office Space 154,179 SF. Existing Employment 3,000 people (5,151 in 1994) It is important to place the Prior Lake Trade Area in context with other areas and the relative relationship to future residential growth areas. For example, retail growth at Trunk Highway 13 and County Road 42 in Savage has a direct influence on the growth potential of '0 ERe ~ <:.:::/ l..uLlIvhiL TRADE " LAKE. TRADE AREA r ENTER * ;UYSTIC LAKE . DAKOTA COUNTRY CASI NOS CENTER * I ~DUS~RiAL AREA ~LES t DATE: ~ -9/9/9.4 2 3 ~ James R. Hill, inc. PLANNERS I ENGINEERS I SURVEYORS 2ICIlIW. CtJ. ....e..... tJO............ IUS7 .,..,.... F. IIDoGU , other retail areas in that neighborhood. Appendix A is a list of commercially zoned areas in adjacent communities. Transoortation The Trade Area is serviced by several all-weather highways which allow people to move freely within the Trade Area, to the larger regional center and other areas of the metropolitan area. Traffic on these highways is projected to increase substantially in the next 15 years. Some shopping and a very limited amount of services are enhanced by the need for convenience level goods such as dairy products, gas, tobacco etc. and impulse shopping. Traffic variables and location variables are very important to this type of shopping and the customer drawn from the traffic arteries provides a major share of this business. The intercept capture percentage, ranging from 5% to as high aslO% percent, represents the amount of the average daily traffic (ADT) which could be expected to stop at any of the designated retail areas to make a limited amount of convenience purchases. Appendix E shows the existing and projected traffic volumes on various streets and the percent of the ADT expected to be captured from that traffic volume. .. PrQjected Retail Space Needs ~ Retail space is a function of competition, existing space, spendable income in the Trade Area and retail sales from outside the Trade Area. The total demand for retail space within the Trade Area is estimated as follows: Year Square Feet Retail Space Needs Existing 360,950 SF 2000 528,306 SF 2010 732,346 SF 2020 1,011,129 SF 2030 1,393,907 SF Proiected Office Space Needs Office space has two primary functions: one is to house services that are used by the Trade Area population and two, to provide space for services that are performed primarily outside the Trade Area. So, generally, the personal services such as, but not limited to, medical/dental, insurance, consumer banking, law, veterinary and other professions are services for people in the trade area. The basic industry services, or basic office growth such as corporate offices or processing centers for business which provide services outside the Trade Area are the result of several location criteria such as transportation access, relationship to the market, skilled, affordable labor force, operating costs, and executive preference. Except for executive preference, there is limited favorable location criteria in Prior Lake for these types of office developments at the present time. Of course, executive preference which cannot be predicted could change the need for office space without any other variable changing. Examples where executive preference changed things are General Mills location in Golden Valley, or Cargil's location in Minnetonka. As a rule of thumb the community should set aside at least 50% more land to be able to capture "basic" office growth due to unforeseen changes or executive preference. The following is a projection of office space demand for the trade area. Year Trade Area "Basic" Office Total Office Needs 50% Needs Existing 154,179 SF. 77,090 SF. 231,269 SF. 2000 216,488 SF. 108,244 SF. 324,732 SF. 2010 284,231 SF. 142,116 SF. 426,347 SF. 2020 375,724 SF. 187,862 SF. 563,586 SF. 2030 483,292 SF. 241,646 SF. 724,938 SF. Industrial Space Needs Like office space, industrial land and warehouse needs area related to the needs within the trade area which are limited to service providers such as electricians, plumbers and the basic industry which transports its goods beyond the trade area. The existing space used for industrial purposes is 38,590 square feet. Existing industrial employment is 493 employees or a ratio of 78 employees per square foot. The following is a projection of industrial employees and industrial space needs given at present trends. However, caution is important here because of the strong recruitment by the community. Also, trend analysis does not allow for changes in the nature of manufacturing, automation, innovation or, like office space, executive preference. Like office space the community should add at least 50% to the space resources to allow for non-predictable variables. Manufacturing Year Employees Space Needs Basic Industry Total Existing 493 2000 554 43,365 SF 21,683 SF 65,048 SF 2010 713 55,811 SF 27,906 SF 83,717 SF 2020 871 68,178 SF 34,089 SF 102,267 SF .' 2030 1,030 80,624 SF 40,312 SF 120,936 SF Entertainment The entertainment industry is the fast growing section of the Prior Lake economy. This section of the economy grew from 2,055 employees in 1993 to a reported employment of just over 3,000 employees in 1994. The largest part of the entertainment industry are the Casinos and their related enterprises. Because the Casinos trade area is the TCMA and greater, it draws money into the community from a large economic area. 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