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County Road 42 Study
Land Use and Transportation Plan
October 22, 2013
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Counry Road 42 Study • L Use and Transporta�ion Pian City of Prior Lake
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Introduction
Prior Lake has historically been described as a small town, resort
community, with development focused around Prior Lake. However, the
city's location in the Twin Cities metro area has positioned it for growth
� � pressure, due to its proximity to downtown Minneapolis (less than 20 milesl,
good access to the interstate and highway system, and the availability of
� �,��� ���„ ,:° �, .=_ natural and commercial amenities. Between 1980 and 2000, the City of Prior
�� �, �`�'° Lake more than doubled in population, from 7,000 to almost 16,000 residents
�'��- '�' �°'" � �see Fi ure 1). The Metro olitan Council's estimated o ulation for 2030 is
g__,;� 9 P P P
�������� ��. 40,000 residents which, as evidenced by Figure 1, would stay on track with
�� , historical increases in population over the last 30 years.
.
45,000 _ -- -- -- --_ -- -- ----- -- --------__..__....
40,000 .._._------ -
--- ---- —�►----
��
35,000 — ��
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30,000 _---------_..... -------- _ ---- - ------ --�----- __..._.._.....- -
25,000 ------------ --- *�' ------ --t--Projected Population (Met
----- --- —
Countil)
20,000
—l�—Actual Population
15,000
10,000 - — —
5,000 — ---- — --
- - r �---�-- , — ---�
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Figure 1. Population Trends- Ciry of Prior Lake
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County Road 42 Study • Lar_d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
However, the past five years have brought
many adjustments in the national and regional
development markets, both in the housing and
_ -" �= commercial sectors. Regionally, the Twin Cities saw
r - 8 a � �'���-�..�.' �`� l i _ �\ a 75 percent drop in residential housing permits
��� between 2004 and 2008, which put a downward
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�`` �� ��;�- ,, ��;�,�'� �.;; � strain on the economy as a whole. The Ciry of Prior
�" . �� � _ ; �.;�, :3,;
-° �" '�� � '�'�`' Lake experienced a similar slowdown in the rapid
�� �`�"~ residential grovuth it had experienced throughout
� ��������� `,�"��� the 1990s and 2000s (Figure 2►, which resulted in an
�. over-prediction of future housing and commercial
development for 2010 and beyond. It is necessary for
�t .
'� ' the cityto re-analyze its population and employment
, projections to accommodate these market
corrections and to plan for the future.
900
800 -
700
600
S00
4 � Residentia{ Building
Permits
300
200
100
0 , ,
8 8 8 8� 8 8 8 8 8 0 0 0
N N N N N N N N N N N N N
Figure 2. Annual Housing Statistics- City of Prior Lake
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' Existing Conditions
Environmental
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As part of this study, existing natural resources and �.
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potential environmental constraints were reviewed. ,:, � ; �` �� �.,,; . - �. rn> ��:
Data sources were broken into three categories: ���; �: �r�� �� °
Parkland and Rare Natural Features, Surface �� � � � ����'�'' ���
Waters, and Soils and Slopes. Figure 4 summarizes �
the environmental data collected and analyzed �x� -�w�.=t„ , t�!
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The natural resources data reviewed were obtained
from the following resources:
• MN Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
• US Fish and Wildlife Service (US FVUS)
• Federal Emergency ManagementAgency
(FEMA) An additional feature, a bald eagle's nest, was also
identified. This nest is located in Section 23 of
• City of Prior Lake Township 115N, Range 22W. It is recommended that
• Natural Resource Conservation Service impacts to these two areas be avoided or minimized
(NRCS) to the greatest extent practicable. The US FVVS
Section 7 Consultation Website was also reviewed.
• MN Pollution Control Agency (PCA) No Federally-listed species are presentwithin Scott
The DNR's Natural Heritage Information County.
System (NHIS) for Scott County revealed
two resources within the study area. One
feature was a Maple-Basswood forested
located north of County Highway 42 in
Section 22 of Township 115N, Range 22W.
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County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan �tY ��r �
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�'""�� �r�`� ����"� Parks
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Two parks are located within the study area. Pike
Lake Nature Area is a nature area located northeast
of the County Highway 42 and County Highway 21
intersection. The park covers approximately 47
acres and provides several passive recreational op-
portunities. The park was developed with LAWCON
funding, and is therefore protected under Section
61f► of the Land and Water Conservation Act. Horkey
Park at Shepard's Path is also located within the
������ study area. It covers 15.8 acres and includes a
picnic shelter, walking trail, and is a nature preserve.
This Park is covered under Section 41f► of the
Department of Transportation Act.
Contaminated Property
`�� The MN PCA's What's In My Neighborhood web
�` app(ication was used to perform a desktop review
_ , � �° �
- of potentially contaminated areas. Based on the
Pike Lake results of the desktop review, there are no potentially
contaminated sites within the study area.
Surface Water Federal Emergency Management Agency
floodplain maps were reviewed and an area
Data on the surface waters present within the study around Pike Lake was identified as being within
area were obtained from the US FWS, DNR, and the 100-year floodplain. Impacts to 100-year
FEMA. The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance floodplain may be required to be mitigated for
was also reviewed. Various types of surface waters within the same floodplain area. ,
exist within the study area.
The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance was
The US FWS National Wetlands Inventory was also reviewed. The Shoreland Ordinance applies
reviewed and 104 NWI wetlands, covering 189 to any land within 1,000 feet of a Public Water.
acres of land, exist within the study area. If impacts Within the study area, this applies to Pike Lake,
to these wetlands are proposed, approvals and Jeffers Pond, Haas Lake, and Lower Prior Lake.
replacement may be required through the Wetland Structures within the Shoreland Ordinance zone
Conservation Act and US Army Corps of Engineers. must be set back 75 feet from the Ordinary High
Water level (as determined by the DNR) of the
The DNR Public Waters Inventory maps were waterbody. In addition, no more than 30 percent
reviewed and nine PWI wetlands were identified of land cover within this zone may be impervious
within the study area. These wetlands comprise when used for residential purposes.
104 acres of land. There is also a DNR Public
Watercourse adjacent to the study area.
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County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
s
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The NRCS Soil Survey of Scott County and LIDAR � �� .��� �
(remote sensing technology) data were used to
determine areas that may be difficult to develop.
Soils were generally considered correctable from a
development standpoint. Slopes above 18 percent
were identified as areas where transportation
networks may be difficult to construct. Slopes
, above 25 percent were identified as areas where
development in general may be difficult.
Land Use
Study Area includes 1,165 acres of land. The existing
land use is primarily agricuttural and vacant land,
but there are also several hundreds of acres that
are wetland, lakes, and publicly-owned parkland.
The City's Comprehensive Plan, completed in 2005,
guided the property in the study area for a variety of
land uses, including low, medium, and high density
residential uses, business office park, neighborhood
and community level retail, and hospitality.
The Comprehensive Plan is the guiding policy
documentfor all decision making within the City. It
contains goals, objectives and policies to guide public
and private land use development, redevelopment
and preservation of all lands and waters within the
City. The Cit�s goals are centered on housing quality
and diversity, environmental and natural resource
protection, economic vitality, security, access,
information technology, human development, infra-
structure, urban expansion area, and efficiency in
government The City identifies current land uses,
analyzes growth projections, and makes future land
use determinations. The future land use map is the
primary tool used to guide future development on
individual parcels. The text and policies in the com-
prehensive plan are reflected in the Zoning Ordinance
and other official development controls.
A variety of different future land uses make up the
study area along the County Highway 42 corridor.
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�"°'«,°'�s,�. Existing Conditions/ 7
County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan Ciry of Prior Lake
' Low Density Residential (R-LD) 600 acres — High Density Residential (R-HD►136 acres —
This land use designation is primarily for These areas are primarily intended for
detached single family homes at densities attached homes and apartments at densities
of 0-4 dwelling units per acre, as well as of 7.1-20 dwelling units per acre. They help
schools, churches, recreational space and to create population centers and provide
' public buildings. Single family attached opportunities for affordable housing. They
units in cluster developments or mixed use are generally located near employment and
developments may be permitted through transit centers and have good access to
issuance of a conditional use permit or collector streets. High density residential
planned unit developments. Low density areas typically serve as a buffer from traffic
residential is optimal for areas with variable from commercial and industrial areas.
, terrain or for environmentally sensitive
resources. They are generally served by
neighborhood parks and are buffered from
commercial and industrial uses.
Medium Density Residential (R acres — Business Office Park (C 203 acres
This land use designation provides an This land use designation is intended to serve
opportunity for a wider range of housing a combination of small professional services
options at slightly higher densities than the � low traffic generation. Higher design
low density residential designation. Single standards promote compatibility with adjacent
family homes, cluster developments and high density housing and provide opportu-
planned unit developments at densities nities for shared parking and open space.
between 4.1 and 7 units per acre are typical Some typical uses might include corpo�ate
for this land use. Areas designated for headquarters, professional and administrative
medium density residential are intended to be offices, and limited research, development
in close proximity to employment and transit and manufacturing facilities. Restaurants,
centers and have good access to collector hotels and other businesses having limited
streets. The also serve as a transition contact with the public and where no retail
between low density residential areas and sales are conducted may also be appropriate
commercial and industrial areas. as conditional uses. These areas are typically
located near arterial access points, such
as intersections of arterials and/or major
collector streets.
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County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan �tY ��r �
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Transportation
links to Burnsville, Apple Valley and Rosemount. In
Background addition to linking to other communities, County
Highway 421inks to other importanttransportation
The transportation network provides access facilities such as trunk highway (TH►13 and County
to the various land uses and amenities within Highways 17, 83, 21 and 18.
a community. It also provides connections to
adjacent communities and to the greater Twin Cities Because of its role in the transportation network,
metropolitan area. Because transportation, be it Scott County has invested significant resources
roadway, transit, pedestrian/bicycle, plays a critical in studying County Highway 42 and developing
role in how a community is served, planning for long-term recommendations for its design, the
changes and upgrades to that overall network it is amount and type of access and the supporting
an important part of any community's comprehensive t�ansportation facilities that are needed in order to
plan. It also requires coordination and cooperation ensure that it will continue to serve demand into the
with multiple agencies to ensure that transportation future in a safe and e�cient manner. The county
needs are being me� Unlike land use, which the City has developed the long-term recommendations
of Prior Lake has jurisdiction over, the transportation with the assistance of the communities along the
network has multiple owners. Some roadways are corridor in order to ensure that the planned land can
developed and maintained by the city, while others be adequately served. Some of the studies initiated
are controlled by Scott County or the Minnesota by the county occurred before the City of Prior Lake
Department of Transportation (MnDOT). The transit last updated its comprehensive plan (1999 study;
system and bicycle and pedestrian networks 2004 maps for the city's comprehensive plan) and
can also be developed by the city and by outside other studies occurred after the city adopted its ,
agencies such as the county and Metro Transit comprehensive plan.
County Highway 42 is one of the citys most important
roadways — however, it is owned and maintained by
Scott County. Part of the reason that it is operated
by the county is due the role it plays in linking
communities and other transportation facilities.
County Highway 42 provides an east-west connection
to several communities, including the Cities of Savage
and Shakopee. Beyond Scott County, the highway
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County Raad 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Pian City of Prior Lalae
Collector (both major and minor) roadways provide �'" ��� � �� �
linkages to larger developments and community ,_ � � �� � ,�, � =��
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amenities. They generally do not link communities ��� �
to one another. Collector roadways generallyfavor ,:,,;= a��� ��� `�
access to the system over mobility, buttheytryto
balance to two competing needs. Collector roadways
are generally lower speed than the principal or
, minor arterial routes. Collector roadways are usually
owned and operated by cities, although counties • Rolling Oaks—right-in/outaccess
have some of these facilities. Local roadways provide . Meadowlawn Road —full access with a traffic
connections to individual homes and commercial signal
uses. These roadways favor access over mobility and
provide short linkages within communities. These • Ferndale Avenue —three-quarter access
' roadways are owned by cities and townships. • County Highway 18—full access with a traffic
signal
The City of Prior Lake's transportation plan identifies
; County Highway 42 as an existing principal arterial • New connection —(east of County Highway 18)
route from the city's eastern border to County right-in/out access
. Highway 18 (Crest Avenue NE►. It shows it as a • Aspen Avenue —full access with a traffic signal
future principal arterial route to County Highway . Kensington/Meadow Avenue — right-in/out
21 (Eagle Creek Avenue NE► in the future. West of
. County Highway 21 it shows County Highway 42 as It should be noted thatthe maximum allowable
a minor arterial route. The transportation plan also access is what the future could accommodate.
identifies a future County Highway 21 corridor to the Traffic signals will not be installed until they meet the
north and the addition of major and minor collector required traffic signal warrants.
routes parallel and connecting to County Highway 42.
Following the 2008 County Highway 42 study, Scott
County made changes to its comprehensive plan.
Roadway Network and Access — These changes included:
Scott County
• County Highway 42 has been designated as
Since the city's comprehensive plan was completed an existing principal arterial route to County
there have been additional studies completed and Highway 21.
updates to Scott County's comprehensive plan.
These studies and comprehensive plan amendments • County Highway 42 has been designated as
have made some changes to the functional classifi- a future principal arterial route through the
cation of county highways and have included access entire City of Prior Lake.
modifications to County Highway 42. Changes have • County Highway 21 north of County Highway 42
included the following: has been constructed and has been designat-
ed as a principal arterial route.
Scott County, along with MnDOT and the Cities of
Savage and Prior Lake completed a corridor study in Because the county extended the principal arterial
2008 which identified access loca�ions along County designation beyond County Highway 21, new access
Highway 42 from County Highway 21 through the City of strategies will be required for roadways west
Savage. Maximum allowable access identified in the of County Highway 21. Figure 7 on the following
City of Prior Lake included the following: page shows existing access as well as the access
• Couniy Highway 21—full access with a traffic strategies identified in the 1999 and 2008 plans.
signal
- • Pike Lake Road —full8ccess with a traffic signa)
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a"SS°`,°"s,'"`. Transportation/ 12
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County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
i
The Scott County CIP also calis for expansion of County Highway 83 from two lanes to four lanes between Wilds
Parkway and County Highway 82 with a multi use trail. CH 83 is currently four lanes from County Highway 42
to Wilds Parkway with a multi use trail. The project is scheduled for 2015 and will provide additional capacity
and pedestrian and bike connections between County Highway 42 and County Highway 82. This project is being
led by the efforts of the Shakopee Mdewakauton Sioux Community. Longer-term, the county's plans include
for widening County Highway 42 to four lanes through the City of Prior Lake and into the City of Shakopee.
The expansion is currently planned for 2020.
Future Network and
�
Access — City and County
This study reviews the access identified in the 1999 and 2008 studies in context with the new principal arterial
designation for the whole corridor through the community. It will also review the supporting collector
roadway network identified in the city's comprehensive plan to ensure that it can supportthe proposed
development along County Highway 42 and takes into account environmental constraints and property
owner input. As part of the review, future traffic volumes will be identified on the existing and proposed �
transportation network. At the base level, it is assumed that the county and city would work together to
preserve the right of way needed to accommodate an eventual six-lane facility on County Highway 42 with
separated multi-use trails on both sides of the corridor to support pedestrian and bicycte mobility.
Market Demand
The Commercial Market
The Prior Lake Commercial and (ndustrial Demand Analysis (Maxfield, 2011) was prepared to provide insight
into future market conditions and demands for commercial and industrial development within the City of
P.rior Lake, not just the study area. The study projects what an additional �0,000 square feet will be needed
to meet the demand for retail, office and industrial space through 2030. This is a 72 percent increase from
the 1.25 million square feet that existed in 2011. Approximately 100 to 120 acres of land will be needed to
accommodate this additional space. These statistics are based on economic and demographic trends, as
well as the existing commercial supply and market conditions. The table below breaks down the type of
demand projected over five year increments.
2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Total
R eta i I 5 5, 000 12 5, 000 12 5, 000 12 5, 000 12 5, 000
Office 45,00 100,00 75,000 75,000 295,000
Industrial 20,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 180,000
Total 120,000 265,000 260,000 260,000 905,000
FIGURE 8. Commercial and Industrial Summary
2010-2030
According to the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, the County Highway 42 Study Area contains 145 acres
of land slated to be zoned for commercial (mostly community retail) and 200 acres slated to be zoned for
Business Office Park. Much of the planned industrial property lies outside of cu�rent City boundaries and is
slated to be annexed in 2014. Therefore, it is necessaryto re-examine the need for business office parks in
the study area.
�
WSB
�,,,,a� Transportation/ 14
County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lalae
9
The anticipated demand for industrial development Based on the estimated demand for additional office
suggests smaller manufacturers, construction space, the land slated for future Business Office
firms, and wholesale companies with (ess than 10 Parks at the corner of County Highway 42 and County
employees and will need 10,000 square feet or less. Highway 18, and the corner of County Highway 42
' The study concludes new development of industrial and County Highway 21 will not be necessary. Both
' space may be limited bythe large amount of space sites have direct access to U.S. Highway 169 and are
being marketed in the area. well-located for Business Office Parks. However,
given the anticipated need for smaller businesses
Given Prior Lake's proximity to larger regional serving the local population and business base, the
shopping areas, increased demand for future retail Business Office Park slated for the comer of County
space will be gradual and will be predicated on what Highway 42 and County Highway 21 would be more
happens in places such as Burnsville, Shakopee, ideal.
and Lakeville. The demand for retail space wilt
likely grow in direct relation to the growth of the Another piece of valuable information regarding the
local population. The Maxfield study reports a commercial market is to examine employment data
retail leakage in 2010 of 53 percent. Leakage is the for Prior Lake. Figure 9 summarizes the changes in
conceptthat demand for retail in the city will be employment over time. Employment numbers have
developed in other cities. The analysis suggests that remained relatively low despite population increase.
reduced leakage from Prior Lake will result from In fact employment decreased between 2000 to 2010,
new small to medium size stores that serve the local when population increased 43 percent (almost 7,000
population with goods and services and could be people) over the same time period. This indicates
accommodated on land along County Highway 42. that the employment market is currently weak in
' Based on the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, Prior Lake, although it is anticipated that employment
the land designated for future retail development is will grow by 2030. The EDA business plan anticipates
ideally situated all along the corridoc It is, however, a growth of 1,800 new jobs in Prior Lake.
important to note that planning for future retail along
County Highway 42 may put negative pressure on
small to medium retailers located in downtown Prior
Lake. !
14,000
iz,000 '
A
w�
��
i�
10�� �i �
8,000 ------------------- -
.------ ---- - t - Projeded Employment
(Met Councilj
6,000 - --- -------- -------- - tActual Employment
4,000 ----- --- --- -- --
2,000 �
p -r-�--� --,
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
igure . mp oyment rowt
-
WSB
e�.+s5a� Transportation/ 15
County Road 42 Study • 4ar_d Us_ �7nra Tian�perta`i �r. P1ar City of Prior Lake
350 i _ _. . ......._....._ _ _ _ _. _
3 � Y __ ___ The Housing Market
z � � _._._._—. As part of this stutly, available data relatetl to
housing starts, population, and employment
zoo =---_._. .-----._---.._______- ---------------------------- were analyzed at city, county, and regional
-�-Residential Building levels. Given the housing market slump for
150 _ _._....__ __ __ __. _._.._ Permits
the past five years, it is important to consider
1 � i_.__..._.__—_. _ ___. both long-term trends and very short-term
rebounds) rather than analyzing mid-term
50 ; _ __ _ _
housing trends.
0 - _ .
zooa zoo6 zoos 2oio zoii Figures 10 and 11 depict a summary of
�o..�_� �._______ __ .� �_... v__N__ �.�____._ permits issued in Prior Lake and the Twin
Figure 1 D. Residential 8uilding Permits lsssued (Prior Lake) Cities from the past 10 years. These graphs
show a similar trend in new housing
starts. The housing market bottomed out in
25°°° ! - 2008/2009 at a low of less than 25 percent at
' its peak, but has begun to recover, gaining
z0000 :___- —_------------.....__..---------.__ ................................------ back to about 50 percent of the housing
starts in 2011/2012 as the peak of the market
1�� _—___.. ___ ___ _____..__. in 2004. This is consistentwhen looking at
the region, or Prior Lake.
tResidential Building
10 D 0 ° '. _ —_ � Over the past 12 years Prior Lake has, on
average, issued 272 building permits peryear.
s000 '; - - --- -- - However, given changes in demographics
regionally, and the current demand for
o ' --___ --_. __ --
new housing, this study concludes that 272
zooa 2006 zoos zoio zosi new housing starts per year is not likely;
_._ �__ _�__ . ��_.____�_�V_ �_ --___ the number will be lowec The demand for
Figure 11. Residential Building Pe�mits (Twin Cities Metro) single housing will remain strong, as
evidenced bythe consistent construction
of single-family housing even in the years
40° ' of least construction (see Figure 12) but
3 � - - -- - - the amount of townhome and apartment
.,
aoo �.�° ___ _ _____ _ development will be weak in the near future.
zso �.___ __�_...._.....__- ---- -............__ -_.._.....__ .................._..._............__
Therefore, our study uses an average of 150
; to 180 new housing starts per year when
2°° ' �-_-_- __----- -------------------- ----------_. .—"s'" Fam''y analyzing the needs for additional land in the
�so � - _ _ __ -- �.....roW�nomes study area.
—Multi-family
100 ; � _ - - .._
50 : -- _ _ -- ---- _ ----_ - __ _
� -- ,, - � --- i — �--
2000'':2001 2002,2003,2004'2005 2008',2009;2010;201] 2012'.
Prior lake
- Figure 12. Prior Lake Residential Building Permits byType
WSB
�
`�''"""°`�`, �"` Transportation/ 16
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'' Plans For The Future
Prior Lake 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan
The 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan identifies the community's vision for the city, and provides a broad
' blueprint on how to get there. One area specifically mentioned in the plan that is within the study area
is the Vierling & Summit Preserve (at County Highway 21 and 421. The area is envisioned as a business
incubator and technology village, including a community college, conference center and resort hotel at
the lake, all connected by trails. The plan goes into further detail to describe the vision for specific areas.
The 2030 vision for this area is described as "a 22nd century, high technology village for living, working and
playing". It will include a mix of single family homes, apartments and senior housing and cater toward high
end commercial stores such as "REI, Whole Foods, Haskell's and Hockey Giant".
��,.,w , :
". �;� "The Vierling Property (at Counry Rd. 42 and Pike
Lake Tr.) is an example of a complete eco-friendly
���-� , and healthy-living neighborhood. A mix of single
�.�� ��
family homes, multi-family housing and daily-
needs-based businesses are connected in a pe-
destrian-friendly, self-sustaining communiry within
a communiry.
The Vierling Properry (at County Rd. 21 and
42) is a mix of retail and family units. The
historical significance of farming and natural
environment features like water and rolling hills
are incorporated into development designs. Trails
intersect with the existing trail system."
�
WSB
�
�"'s�'°"s,'"`. Plans For The Future/ 18
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Counry R�ad 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan �tY ��r �
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amount of property guided for commercial
Prior Lake Economic and industrial use; however, little of it can be
' development ready within 30-90 days. The EDA has
Development Authority compiled a commercial and industrial land inventory
Business Plan to manage this task and utilizes the 2011 Maxfield
C/I demand analysis reportto project demands
for commercial and industrial land. The EDA will
The Prior Lake EDA Business Plan is a document continue to evaluate actions necessary to make
intended to guide the EDA towards achieving the more sites pad-ready to meet potential demands.
City's vision with regard to economic development. This effort is estimated to result in 10 new businesses
The City's goals regarding jobs and businesses and 300 new jobs by 2020.
added and increase in market value are described as
follows. The "Base" figures are projections based The plan states the EDA will explore other ways to
on normal market conditions while the "New" figures encourage commercial and industrial development
represent increases beyond the historical average. in targeted areas of the City, with specific mention
to the County Highway 42 corridor. This may include
A goal of the EDA is to work towards increasing feasibility reports for utilities or building partnerships
the number of pad-ready sites for commercial and with land owners. The EDA also wishes to analyze
industrial development The City has a significant existing city codes and fees to make Prior Lake more
°business friendly".
5 Ttrn� ias� lob�s F�us Base Plus N�w i�N Yalut i�lus
Prrlods Cf1N►t�d N�wleibs �usln�ss�s Busfn�s�s !#�'lll� 1�1�lwllalu! ,
N�t CA^l11bd Add�d Aci�d I�Ce+D�s�R `'
zooaio ass wa io xxx 3��+� �ax
5-Yar A .
2011-2015 2S0 i2'� 10 5 M 0 M
2016-20Q0 ��t"! 173 15 � 5'M 1� M
2021-20Q5 �CO 1:5�f 12 6 2M iiM
2026-2030 �C10 1l5Q 13 6 iVl ' t2 11i�
Tds12011+ 1,�0 t�00 50 2S M M
Figure 15. Expected Employment Growth-EDA Business Plan Figure
Assumptions:
1. 2000-10 'Base information is based on city building permit activity reports or new commercial and indusirial
construction, not including public facilities and mutli-family rental housing
2. Annual increase in base jobs, business and value continue trends from 2000-2010
3. Estimated increase due to Economic Development ('New7 uses the Base times 1.5.
- 4. Total city/county/school taxes be(ow are estimaied using $2.75 per square foot of building space.
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dr AasncfWU, Int.
Plans For The Future/ 20
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
Industry Em loye�s Perc�M SMSC Est.
Construdion 352 4.59L 25
Wholesak Trade 112 1.4%
, Retail Trade 353 4.595
Flnance, Inaurance and Real Estate 223 2.49G
Prafessional and Technkal Services 162 2.1% 25
Mana ement, Admin. and Other Servkes 659 8.4°% 25
Accommodatbn and Food Service 3,533 45.2% 3,250
Arts, Entertsinment and Recreatfon 149 1.996 75
Public Admfnlstratbn 919 11.7%
Other 1,361 17.4% 400
TOTAL EMPLOYEES 7 823 100% 3,800
Figure 16. Employment within sub-industries- Prior Lake 2010
' Industry Establishments Peroent
Const�udion 93 16.6%
Trade, Transportation and Utilitks 101 18.096
Financial Activities 72 12.996
Professiona) and Buslness Serviaes 120 21.4%
Educatbn and Heakh Servkea 59 10.5%
Leisure and Hospitality 29 5.296
Other Services 52 9.3%
Public Administ�atbn 4 0.7%
Other 30 5.496
TOTAL BUSINESS ESTABUSHMENTS 560 100%
Figure 17. Number of Establishments within sub industries- Prior Lake 2010
-
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�essa�aes,��. Plans For The Future/ 21
County Road 42 Study • Lard Use and Transportation Plan CitY of Prior Lake
�
;
��. ��_� �� ;-
Property Owner Feedback Vierling Property — The Vierling family owns 381
acres within the study area, which includes of the
' 109 acres of property on the southeast corner of
Individual Property Owners/Ownership Groups CSAH 21 and County Highway 42 and 272 acres
o located on the east side of Pike Lake. Repre-
Shakopee MdewakaMon Sioux sentatives for this land have been involved in the
Community (SMSC� discussions regarding changes in land use and have
not raised dispute with the proposed designations.
SMSC Property- The Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux
Community (SMSC) owns 256 acres of land in the K. Hovnanian Property — The K. Hovnanian Property
study area in fee or in trust Based on discussions is currently exempt from the moratorium in place,
with representatives from the SMSC, it is anticipated however it is subjectto analysis underthis study. The
that the land currently held in fee will ultimately representatives from K. Hovnanian have been part of
become trust land, removing it from the land use the planning process, and wish to see the property
jurisdiction of the City of Prior Lake. However, it is remain guided for a single-family residential land use.
beneficial to discuss whatthe SMSC's vision forthe
property is in order to plan for needed infrastructure Bolger Property — The Bolger property owners
improvements. The SMSC is currently undertaking have been involved in this study, and have primarily
an in-depth land use analysis and plan for their trust commented on the importance of the alignment and
property. design of the roadway connection between Carriage
Hills Drive and County Highway 42. Given the need
In general, the plan is to develop properry in Prior to locate the intersection as far west as possible
Lake as mostly low-density residential, with the for access spacing and safety reasons, a future
exception of land immediately adjacentto key connection to Carriage Hills Drive will be located
intersections, where there is an opportunity for partially on the Bolger property. The exact alignment
commercial development More specific information and configuration will come at the time when a
will be available when the SMSC completes their land development application is. However, it is important
use planning process; however, for the purposes of to visualize this connection as part of the K.
this study, we included both low-density residential Hovnanian plat, since the development of one piece
land uses and commercial land uses in planning for affects the other. The owners anticipate developing
the future of the SMSC-controlled property. low-density residential housing.
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- Plans For The Future/ 22
dr essnctmes, Inc.
County Road 42 Study • Lard Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
� �� _.:. � 1�
�� Property on Eastern Portion of CSAH 18 —
°�� Feedback from two property owners located on
�`���` �:���� �� �� � the east of CSAH 18 in the study area, their plans
�'= were to construct and stay in their single-family
�'� homes for the foreseeable future.
Summit Preserve Previous Summit Preserve Property — City
" staff engaged with representatives of Cardinal
,r^ ''y° . � .
' Development, the company that currently
���_-._.� controls the former Summit Preserve parcel.
They envision a mixed use concept on their
property.
Community Feedback
Several comments regarding proposed land uses There was interest expressed in seeing more
were received from the public atthe draft plan community gardens with new development
meeting held on July 9, 2013. Regarding land use, a as a way to promote local sustainability and
comment was received that it makes sense for the community involvement Interest in multi-modal
commercial lot on the south side of Fountain Hills transportation options, specifically infrastruc-
Drive NE to be rezoned to high density residential. In ture for pedestrians and cyclists on new or
addition, there was concern expressed over the entire improved roads was also inquired about as a
northeast corner of County Highway 42 and County way to atlow residents opportunities to exercise
Highway 21 being guided for mixed use. Access to and save money. Comments were received
this corner is a concern. Commercial will be most regarding the potential for public transpor-
important if County Highway 42 and Courrty Highway tation within the City of Prior Lake, such as a
21 is to become a gateway to Prior Lake. Access and circulator bus that connects neighborhoods to
size of parcels should not be limited. desirable locations like downtown Prior lake,
Village Market and the Savage commercial
There was also a concern over the parcel at the district, or the potential for a street car along
northwest corner of Pike Lake Trail and Counry county highways 21, 42, and trunk highway 18.
Highway 42 being entirely guided for commercial
when wetlands are an issue on the site.
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��...�r�,es,r��. Plans For The Future/ 23
County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan CYty of Prior Lalae
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Summary of Land-use
: Findings
Below is a summary of this study's findings, based
on an analysis of the existing conditions:
' • 80 to 90 acres of additional commercial prop- • Some property in the study area has imme-
erty is needed city-wide to meet the demand diate availability. The easternmost proper-
by 2030; therefore, the amount of land guided ties in the study area (Summit Preserve) do
as commercial, business office, and retail in not have ready access to sewer and water
the study area should be reduced. However, facilities, and have significant environmental
given the EDA's goals for job growth, having resources; therefore development should be
extra land available for commercial develop- staged accordingly.
ment is also desirable. • Property owners and the City of Prior Lake
• 20 to 30 acres of industrial land is need- have a desire to develop their property in a
ed city-wide to meet the demand by 2030; market-driven way; therefore, their individual
therefore, there may be an opportunity for thoughts and desires should influence the
some additional industrially guided land in outcome of this study
the study area.
• Current housing starts suggest an average
of 150 to 180 new starts annually, resulting
in an additional 2,400 to 2,800 households in
Prior Lake (which is significantly lower than
the 2005 Comp Plan anticipates►; therefore, a
discussion aboutthe location of new resi-
dential housing in Prior Lake is necessary.
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�Assocfaes,lnc. FII1C�IflgS� 24
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan Ciry of Prior Lalae
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Land Use
Recommendations
Below are the major recommendations from this
study with regard to land use:
Given the uncertainty of the future, a flexible
approach was of paramount value when proposing 11Reduce the amount of land guided solely for
an alternative land use scenario for the study area. residential. Currently, 600 acres of the study area
However, equally important are the property owne�'s are guided for low density residential,l8 acres are
visions and the stated vision of the community guided for medium density residential, and 126 acres
found in the Prior Lake 2030 Vision and Strategic are guided for high-density housing. This study
Plan. Given the findings of this study, Figure 18 recommends a flexible land use approach through
outlines changes to the land use map. Additional text the establishment of a"Planned Use" land use
amendments to the Comprehensive Plan will also be designation whereby targets for various land uses
needed. will be set and a variety of different types and styles
of housing and commercial can be accommodated.
However, there are key areas, as shown on Figure
18, that are appropriate to remain solely one type of
`` � � � � • residential.
� ° ��
"`� ��� • Proposed R-Low Density Residential �R-LD) _
362 gross acres (253 net acres*)
These areas are located primarily along Pike Lake
(east►, within SMSC controlled land just west of
CSAH 21, the future K.Hovnanian development and
adjacent parcels, the land area north of Summit
Preserve on CSAH 18 and a portion of the land
owned by the Vierlings along Carriage Hills Parkway.
Based on discussions with the property owners and
,, an analysis of environmental resources, low-density
, {a�.,,.�a��; �`` �, single-family residential is the best guidance for
- these properties.
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�'''s°`,°"S.�"`. Recommendations/ 25
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Counry Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
The study recommends that no additional land be Vierling North (207 gross acres,145 net acres,
guided solely for business office, but that this type of residential density of 3.4 units per net acre)
use is anticipated to be located, if there is demand, in
a Planned Use area. This Planned Use area is also well suited for
immediate development Ittoo is owned by one
3►Create a new land use designation named entity and is located in an area that is well served
"Planned Use" that would allow for flexibility, while by the transportation system, but also has high
setting development and land use parameters. The natural resource value. While the city anticipates
following areas are proposed to be guided "Planned most of the land near Pike Lake being developed
Use": as low density residential as has guided it as such,
the remaining acreage of the Vierling property is
Pike Lake West 186 gross acres, 60 net acres, anticipated to be developed as a Planned Use with
residential densit� of 3J units per net acre) a variety of uses. Key to developing this parcel will
be obtaining adequate backage roads to serve local
Pike Lake West is located generally on the northeast traffic rather than those trips relying on County
corner of CSAH 21 and County Highway 42. This Highway 42 access, as outlined in the transporta-
district consists of several parcels owned by tion recommendations. This study envisions the
different landowners, making it a challenge to development of 50 percent of the site as medium
develop as one piece. However, because it is difficult density residential to serve as a transition between
to analyze the exact development and appropriate low density housing (25 percent) and commercial
use of this property at this time due to access and uses (25 percent►. While 52 acres of commercial land
environmental constraints and its proximity to public is more than adequate to accommodate the demand
parkland, this study recommends a Planned Use land for commercial development in this area, it is
use designation. This study recommends a mix of importantto understand the city's 2030 Strategic Plan
low density residential f 50%1, high density residential and Vision guidance for this area as a premier office/
(25%1, and commercial (25%) uses, as summarized in technology campus in the future. A breakdown of this
the chart below. Planned Use is described in the chart below.
Vierling South (66 gross acres, 46 net acres, Summit Preserve (49 gross acres, 34 net acres,
residential density of 5.6 units per net acre) residential density of 4.1 units per acre)
Vierling South is the area located on the southeast The area on the northeast corner of CSAH 18
corner of CSAH 21 and County Highway 42. Given and County Highway 42 has previously had a
its proximity to available sewer and water utilities, development proposal under review at the city
and its high profile location along CSAH 21, this called Summit Preserve. While that approval has
area is most likely to be compatible with immediate expired, the landowner still intends to develop it as
development The entire property is owned by one a Planned Use site. Therefore, this piece is guided
entity, positioning it well for the Planned Use land for 75 percent medium density residential, with a
use designatian. The city desires to see 50% of small amount of commercial likely near an access
this parcel be developed with commercial, given onto County Highway 42 (25 percent commercial►.
its location and future access improvements, but However, this property is challenged by the
recognizes that development may be somewhat immediate lack of full sanitary service and may be a
constrained by the existence of a large wetland number of years before service is readily available.
complex. The remaining acreage is envisioned When development does occur, it should be noted
as 25% medium density residential and 25% high that a new access point at Aspen Avenue should
density residential. The adjacent property guided be anticipated, at which time access from County
for low density and medium density residential will Highway 42 to Kensington Avenue and Meadow
likely become part of an overall development plan, Avenue should be eliminated.
but the city felt it important to retain these separate
residential designations to serve as a density
- transition.
ws'B 4) It is anticipated that the land cuRently owned
�
�''"°`r°`es, i"`. Recommendations/ 27
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County Rpad 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan CYtY of Prior 1.ake
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1
: Future The city confirmed that local roadways were
needed both north and south of County Highway 42
Transportation Plans to support developmentthat is planned along the
corridor. The city acknowledged thatthe supporting
Draft Concept Plan — June 2013 roadways should function as collector roadways
— that they should link the development to County
In addition to collecting information about previous Highway 42 and not necessarily provide direct
studies and plans for County Highway 42, meetings driveway access.
with city and county staff were held to better
understand any existing transportation concerns as The City of Prior Lake directed the consultant team to
well as to identify any new information that should use the information obtained from the environmental
be included as part of the study. As part of the scan performed as part of this study to help identify
discussions, previous plats and concepts that had where it would generally be feasible to construct
been submitted to the city (but were ultimately not continuous supporting roadways. Locations
approved or buitt— due to changes in the economy) where there were significant slopes, wetlands, and
were also reviewed. Additionally, the county and sensitive species/resources were to be avoided if
city were asked to provide input on the recommen- practical.
dations of the previous plans and studies —were
there things that in hindsight did not look like it Finally, information from past plans was used to
could work? understand generally what traffic volumes were
expected in the future based on land use in the city's
The meetings with city and county staff confirmed 2030 Comprehensive Plan. While the study partners
that County Highway 42 needed to be treated as a understood that land use will be changing — it was
principal arterial throughout the entire city. This a base to understand general demand in the area
means that the access originally identified in the and to understand the demand for through traffic on
1999 study of County Highway 42 is no longer County Highway 42.
applicable. In the 1999 study, the area west of
County Highway 21 (Eagle Creek Avenue) was The information above was used to devefop a
identified as a minor arterial. Additionally, the preliminary supporting roadway and access concept
county indicated that it would prefer to have plan that was presented to property owners along
access along County Highway 42 reflect opportuni- the corridor on June 4, 2013. This same information,
ties that are actually feasible —taking into consid- with comments received from the property owners
eration the types of development, resources that noted, was presented at a joint planning commission
have to be avoided, etc. and city council meeting on June 17, 2014. Figure 19
shows the original preliminary concept.
�
WSB
�ess�� Recommendations/ 29
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`h
County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
�
Steps in the Forecasting �
Process �--='�`
The Scott County Travel Demand Model follows
a standard four-step process, in which the major .
model components are:
• trip generation
i ,
• trip distribution
• mode choice
• traffic assignment
Trip Generation Mode Choice
The first step in forecasting travel is trip generation. Here, trips befinreen a given origin and destination
, Information from land use, population and economic are split into trips using different modes of travel
forecasts is used to estimate how many person-trips including public transit and personal vehicles.
will be made to and from each zone. Trip generation Calculations are canducted that compare the attrac-
is estimated by applying trip generation equations to tiveness of travel by different modes to determine
socioeconomic information. Trip production zones their relative usage. The Metropolitan Council's
are based on household characteristics such as the Regional Travel Demand Model includes a sophis-
number of people in the household and the number ticated mode choice model. This project maintains
of vehicles available. Trip attractions are based consistency with all of the coefficients, networks
primarily on the number and type of jobs (retail or and processes.
non-retail) in a zone.
Trip Distribution Traific Assignmant
In the trip distribution stage, trip ends are linked The fourth step in the modeling process assigns
together to form an origin-destination pattern of trips. trips to specific routes. These routes are first
The number of trips between two points is dependent determined based on the shortesttravel times
upon their attractiveness for a given trip purpose and between origins and destinations. The assigned trip
the separation (distance or travel time) between the volumes are then compared to the capacity of each
points. A zone with a large number of trip attractions link to determine which links, if any, are congested.
will receive a greater number of trips than one with If a link is congested, the speed on the link slows,
a small number of trip attractions. The other primary resulting in longer travel time assigned to that
factor in trip distribution is distance. The number of link. Trips on congested links will be shifted to less
trips from an origin zone to a given destination zone congested links until there is a system-wide balance
decreases with increasing travel time between the between travel demand and travel supply.
origin zone and the destination zone.
�
WSB
�
�"'��`'°/e` Recommendations/ 33
Counry Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lalae
Travel Forecasting Process
Travel forecasting involves a series of mathematical equations that attempt to simulate human
; travel behavior. The models follow a sequence of steps that answer a series of questions about
traveler decisions. The goal is to simulate choices that travelers make in response to a given
system of highways. Many assumptions need to be made about how people make decisions, the
factors they consider, and how they may react to a particular alternative. The travel simulation
process follows trips as they begin at a trip-production zone (e.g., Home►, move through a network
of links and nodes (roads and intersections►, and end at a trip-attracting zone (e.g., Workplace).
TAZ Comp Plan Data Proposed Change
Development
2030 Pop 2030 Emp 2030 Pop 2030 Emp 2030 Pop 2030 Emp
1T84 2252 389 3231 1062 979 673
1852 402 545 470 22 68 -523
1�54 107 35 119 14 12 -21
1855 493 341 1162 387 669 46
1856 520 0 1300 557 780 557
1�57 1013 576 1105 886 92 310
1943 349 0 1341 304 992 304
1973 1434 186 2377 1314 943 1128
1976 1207 38 1636 0 429 -38
1978 1582 139 699 734 -883 595
Total 9359 2249 1�440 5280 4081 3031
-�+
W a7B
�
�"u°`'°`es.�"`. Recommendations/ 34
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County Road 42 �udy • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan C�ty of Prior Iake
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Summary of
Transportation Findings
Below is a summary of the findings related to the
transportation network and access along County
Highway 42.
• County Highway 42 is an important roadway in
the regional transportation network. It needs
to be able to provide safe and efficient travel
within the county. Because of its importance, �,� �,'���. ,.� �,,, , N
Scott County has identified it as a Principal ,,
Arterial Roadwaythroughoutthe county— "��
:_
including all of Prior Lake. Previously, itwas `' -
identified as a Principal Arterial from the east-
ern city limits to County Highway 21.
• County Highway 42 needs to function at a
high-level in order to accommodate future
traffic demand.
• Access on County Highway 42 will be limit-
ed to preserve mobility and maintain safety.
Roadway connections to County Highway 42
should generally be collector roadways and
above, with a majority of the connections
being other principal or minor arterials. _._�
• It is the county's intention to preserve 200 feet
of right of way along County Highway 42 in
order to ensure that adequate capacity can be �
provided for along the corridor. As plats and
development along the highway are submitted
for review and comment, this area must be
shown for roadway and trail purposes.
�
W a7B
�
m.+ssa,�,=.�,i��. Recommendations/ 37
Counry Road 42 Study • Lard Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
i
• Future demand (trips) on County Highway 42 will
increase as land uses intensify and more develop-
' ment occurs.
• County highway connections to County Highway 42
(such as County Highways 83, 21 and 18) also play
an important role in the transportation network.
Access to these roadways is also managed by the
county to ensure reliable traffic flow and safety.
• Because access is limited to the county highway
network, a majority of the access to future develop-
ment will need to come from the city street network
and the street network operated by the SMSC.
Therefore, these street networks need to provide
continuous travel where feasible.
• Portions of the existing roadway network will be
above capacity (roadway will become congested)
without improvements. Segments of roadways
expected to experience congestion include:
� County Highway 42 west of County Highway 83
(Canterbury Road S)
• County Highway 42 between County Highway 83
and County Highway 18
• Based on the network identified in the revised con-
cept plan, adequate connections should be provid-
ed for local trips.
• The proposed roadway network and access plan
has some Nexibility as implementation occurs.
Alignments and exact access locations may be
tweaked as plats are submitted and reviewed by the
county and city. However, roadway connections
that are shown as continuous need to be so. The
type of access shown in the plan is the expected
access along the corridor.
�
WSB
�
��'SSM'°'°s. �^� Recommendations/ 38
County Road 42 Study • Lar.d Use and Transportation Plan GYty of Prior Lak+e
�+i
�
O F PR/pR i .
f
�
's.
�'n'.� e s��
Transportation
Recommendations
Below is a series of recommendations for the connections may not be completed until additional
transportation network. Most of the improvements development occurs and some access locations may
identified on the map should be implemented not get their traffic signals right away. Traffic signals
as development occurs. However, timing for should only be installed once the intersection meets
improvements such as traffic signals will be the required signal warrants.
dependent upon meeting certain requirements 3) The supporting roadway network should be
called traffic signal warrants. Until an intersection sensitive to environmental resources within the
meets those warrants, it is not good nor safe community. Impacts to wetlands, slopes, etc. should
practice to install a traffic signal. The county be avoided if possible and minimized if they cannot
and city will coordinate with one another on the be avoided.
installation of proposed traffic signals, just as they
will for proposed roadways and access as plats 4) The supporting roadway network should be
come in for review and approval. continuous where possible so that local trips
Recommendations for the future roadway network between places on one side of the corridor or the
and access locations included feedback from other can avoid having to access County Highway 42
stakeholders atthe July 9th meeting, results ofthe and other county highways in the study area. Having
travel forecasting and input from city and county a continuous frontage/backage road system along
staff. County Highway 42 also reduces pressure and the
need for expansion on County Highway 42. Failure
1) The proposed transportation network and access to have a continuous network will increase traffic
map (Figure 25► should guide the development of demands on County Highway 42 and will result in
local street connections that support intensification additional congestion.
of land use along County Highway 42.
2) The proposed transportation network and access
map show the ultimate connections and access
types that are proposed along/near the corridor.
Because development is incremental, not all of
the changes will be made at once, nor are they
likely all needed at once. This means that some
�
WSB
�
�'''s°`,°"1, i"`. Transportation / 39
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