HomeMy WebLinkAbout09 16 2013 EDA Report 8B attachO BRIO
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County Highway 42 Study
Land Use and Transportation Plan
August 29,2013
701 Xenia Avenue South, Suite 300
Minneapolis, MN 55416
WSB Tel: (763) 541-4800 • Fax: (763) 541-1700
&A ...... wsbeng.com
..........
701 Xenia Avenue South, Suite 300
Minneapolis, MN 55416
WSB Tel: (763) 541-4800 • Fax: (763) 541-1700
&A ...... wsbeng.com
County Road 42 Study - Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Introduction
Prior Lake has historically been described as a small town, resort
community, with development focused around Prior Lake. However, the
city's location in the Twin Cities metro area has positioned it for growth
pressure, due to its proximityto downtown Minneapolis (less than 20 miles),
good access to the interstate and highway system, and the availability of
natural and commercial amenities. Between 1980 and 2000, the City of Prior
Lake more than doubled in population, from 7,000 to almost 16,000 residents
(see Figure 1). The Metropolitan Council's estimated population for 2030 is
40,000 residents which, as evidenced by Figure 1, would stay on track with
historical increases in population over the last 30 years.
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000 l
r
25,000 ' -- - Projected Population (Met
Council)
20,000
--41--Actual Population
15,000
10,000
5,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Figure 1. Population Trends- City of Prior Lake
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& Assao,l -, In,.
Introduction/ 1
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
However, the past five years have brought
many adjustments in the national and regional
development markets, both in the housing and
commercial sectors. Regionally, the Twin Cities saw
a 75 percent drop in residential housing permits
between 2004 and 2008, which put a downward
strain on the economy as a whole. The City of Prior
Lake experienced a similar slowdown in the rapid
residential growth it had experienced throughout
the 1990s and 2000s (Figure 2), which resulted in an
over - prediction of future housing and commercial
developmentfor 2010 and beyond. It isnecessaryfor
the cityto re- analyze its population and employment
projections to accommodate these market
corrections and to plan for the future.
900
800
700
600
500
400 _ -zi- Residential Building
AL Permits
-MO
700
100 _
0
0 r-I r.l m Ln 0 as M 0 r-1 rq
n 0 0 O 0 0 0 0 o v a r-1 r_1
O 0 0 v 0 Q o 0 0 0 Q 0 0
N N N N N . N N N nl fV ra N
Figure 2. Annual Housing Statistics- City of Prior Lake
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Introduction/ 2
BOONE AV S
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CANDLEWOOD LN NE
RYE C
DOGWOOD LN
REDWING DR
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County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
Existing Conditions
Environmental
As part of this study, existing natural resources and
potential environmental constraints were reviewed.
Data sources were broken into three categories:
Parkland and Rare Natural Features, Surface
Waters, and Soils and Slopes. Figure 4 summarizes
the environmental data collected and analyzed
The natural resources data reviewed were obtained
from the following resources:
• MN Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
• US Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS)
• Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA)
• City of Prior Lake
• Natural Resource Conservation Service
(NRCS)
• MN Pollution Control Agency (PCA)
The DNR's Natural Heritage Information
System (NHIS) for Scott County revealed
a Maple- Basswood forest located north
of County Highway 42 in Section 22 of
Township 115N, Range 22W.
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It is recommended that impacts to this area be
avoided or minimized to the greatest extent
practicable. The US FWS Section 7 Consultation
Website was also reviewed. No Federally - listed
species are present within Scott County.
Existing Conditions/ 4
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Parks
Pike Lake
Surface Water
Data on the surface waters present within the study
area were obtained from the US FWS, DNR, and
FEMA. The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance
was also reviewed. Various types of surface waters
exist within the study area.
The US FWS National Wetlands Inventory was
reviewed and 104 NWI wetlands, covering 189
acres of land, exist within the study area. If impacts
to these wetlands are proposed, approvals and
replacement may be required through the Wetland
Conservation Act and US Army Corps of Engineers.
The DNR Public Waters Inventory maps were
reviewed and nine PWI wetlands were identified
within the study area. These wetlands comprise
104 acres of land. There is also a DNR Public
Watercourse adjacent to the study area.
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Two parks are located within the study area. Pike
Lake Nature Area is a nature area located northeast
of the County Highway 42 and County Highway 21
intersection. The park covers approximately 47
acres and provides several passive recreational op-
portunities. The parkwas developed with LAWCON
funding, and is therefore protected under Section
6(f) of the Land and Water Conservation Act. Horkey
Park at Shepard's Path is also located within the
study area. It covers 15.8 acres and includes a
picnic shelter, walking trail, and is a nature preserve.
This Park is covered under Section 4(f) of the
Department of Transportation Act.
Contaminated Property
The MN PCA's What's In My Neighborhood web
application was used to perform a desktop review
of potentially contaminated areas. Based on the
results of the desktop review, there are no potentially
contaminated sites within the study area.
Federal Emergency Management Agency
floodplain maps were reviewed and an area
around Pike Lake was identified as being within
the 100 -year floodplain. Impacts to 100 -year
floodplain may be required to be mitigated for
within the same floodplain area.
The City of Prior Lake's Shoreland Ordinance was
also reviewed. The Shoreland Ordinance applies
to any land within 1,000 feet of a Public Water.
Within the study area, this applies to Pike Lake,
Jeffers Pond, Haas Lake, and Lower Prior Lake.
Structures within the Shoreland Ordinance zone
must be set back 75 feet from the Ordinary High
Water level (as determined by the DNR) of the
waterbody. In addition, no more than 30 percent
of land cover within this zone may be impervious
when used for residential purposes.
Existing Conditions/ 6
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Soils
The NRCS Soil Survey of Scott County and LIDAR
(remote sensing technology) data were used to
determine areas that may be difficult to develop.
Soils were generally considered correctable from a
development standpoint. Slopes above 18 percent
were identified as areas where transportation
networks may be difficult to construct. Slopes
above 25 percent were identified as areas where
development in general may be difficult.
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Land Use
Study Area includes 1,105 acres of land. The existing
land use is primarily agricultural and vacant land,
butthere are also several hundreds of acres that
are wetland, lakes, and publicly -owned parkland.
The City's Comprehensive Plan, completed in 2005,
guided the property in the study area for a variety of
land uses, including low, medium, and high density
residential uses, business officepark,
neighborhood and community level retail, and
hospitality.
The Comprehensive Plan is the guiding policy
documentfor all decision making within the City. It
contains goals, objectives and policies to guide public
and private land use development, redevelopment
and preservation of all lands and waters within the
City. The City's goals are centered on housing quality
and diversity, environmental and natural resource
protection, economic vitality, security, access,
information technology, human development, infra-
structure, urban expansion area, and efficiency in
government. The City identifies current land uses,
analyzes growth projections, and makes future land
use determinations. The future land use map is the
primarytool used to guide future development on
individual parcels. The text and policies in the com-
prehensive plan are reflected in the Zoning
Ordinance and other official development controls.
A variety of different future land uses make up the
study area along the County Highway 42 corridor.
Existing Conditions/ 7
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Low Density Residential (R-LD) 600 acres —
This land use designation is primarily for
detached single family homes at densities
of 0 -4 dwelling units per acre, as well as
schools, churches, recreational space and
public buildings. Single family attached
units in cluster developments or mixed use
developments may be permitted through
issuance of a conditional use permit or
planned unit developments. Low density
residential is optimal for areas with variable
terrain or for environmentally sensitive
resources. They are generally served by
neighborhood parks and are buffered from
commercial and industrial uses.
Medium Density Residential (R -MD) 18 acres —
This land use designation provides an
opportunity for a wider range of housing
options at slightly higher densities than the
low density residential designation. Single
family homes, cluster developments and
planned unit developments at densities
between 4.1 and 7.1 units per acre are typical
for this land use. Areas designated for
medium density residential are intended to be
in close proximity to employment and transit
centers and have good access to collector
streets. The also serve as a transition
between low density residential areas and
commercial and industrial areas.
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High Density Residential (R- HD) 138 acres —
These areas are primarily intended for
attached homes and apartments at densities
of 7.1 -20 dwelling units per acre. They help
to create population centers and provide
opportunities for affordable housing. They
are generally located near employment and
transit centers and have good access to
collector streets. High density residential
areas typically serve as a buffer from traffic
from commercial and industrial areas.
Business Office Park (C -BO) 203 acres-
This land use designation is intended to serve
a combination of small professional services
with low traffic generation. Higher design
standards promote compatibility with adjacent
high density housing and provide opportu-
nities for shared parking and open space.
Some typical uses might include corporate
headquarters, professional and administrative
offices, and limited research, development
and manufacturing facilities. Restaurants,
hotels and other businesses having limited
contact with the public and where no retail
sales are conducted may also be appropriate
as conditional uses. These areas are typically
located near arterial access points, such
as intersections of arterials and /or major
collector streets.
Existing Conditions/ 8
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Transportation
Background
The transportation network provides access
to the various land uses and amenities within
a community. It also provides connections to
adjacent communities and to the greater Twin Cities
metropolitan area. Because transportation, be it
roadway, transit, pedestrian /bicycle, plays a critical
role in how a community is served, planning for
changes and upgrades to that overall network it is
an important part of any community's comprehensive
plan. It also requires coordination and cooperation
with multiple agencies to ensure that transportation
needs are being met. Unlike land use, which the City
of Prior Lake has jurisdiction over, the transportation
network has multiple owners. Some roadways are
developed and maintained by the city, while others
are controlled by Scott County or the Minnesota
Department of Transportation (MnDOT). The transit
system and bicycle and pedestrian networks
can also be developed by the city and by outside
agencies such as the county and Metro Transit.
County Highway 42 is one of the city's most important
roadways — however, it is owned and maintained by
Scott County. Part of the reason that it is operated
by the county is due the role it plays in linking
communities and other transportation facilities.
County Highway 42 provides an east -west connection
to several communities, including the Cities of Savage
and Shakopee. Beyond Scott County, the highway
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links to Burnsville, Apple Valley and Rosemount. In
addition to linking to other communities, County
Highway 42 links to other important transportation
facilities such as trunk highway (TH) 13 and County
Highways 17, 83, 21 and 18.
Because of its role in the transportation network,
Scott County has invested significant resources
in studying County Highway 42 and developing
long -term recommendations for its design, the
amount and type of access and the supporting
transportation facilities that are needed in order to
ensure that it will continue to serve demand into the
future in a safe and efficient manner. The county
has developed the long -term recommendations
with the assistance of the communities along the
corridor in order to ensure that the planned land can
be adequately served. Some of the studies initiated
by the county occurred before the City of Prior Lake
last updated its comprehensive plan (1999 study;
2004 maps for the city's comprehensive plan) and
other studies occurred after the city adopted its
comprehensive plan.
Transportation/ 10
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Collector (both major and minor) roadways provide
linkages to larger developments and community
amenities. They generally do not link communities
to one another. Collector roadways generally favor
access to the system over mobility, but they try to
balance to two competing needs. Collector roadways
are generally lower speed than the principal or
minor arterial routes. Collector roadways are usually
owned and operated by cities, although counties
have some of these facilities. Local roadways provide
connections to individual homes and commercial
uses. These roadways favor access over mobility and
provide short linkages within communities. These
roadways are owned by cities and townships.
The City of Prior Lake's transportation plan identifies
County Highway 42 as an existing principal arterial
route from the city's eastern border to County
Highway 18 (Crest Avenue NE). It shows it as a
future principal arterial route to County Highway
21 (Eagle Creek Avenue NE) in the future. West of
County Highway 21 it shows County Highway 42 as
a minor arterial route. The transportation plan also
identifies a future County Highway 21 corridor to the
north and the addition of major and minor collector
routes parallel and connecting to County Highway 42.
Roadway Network and Access —
Scott County
Since the city's comprehensive plan was completed
there have been additional studies completed and
updates to Scott County's comprehensive plan.
These studies and comprehensive plan amendments
have made some changes to the functional classifi-
cation of county highways and have included access
modifications to County Highway 42. Changes have
included the following:
Scott County, along with MnDOT and the Cities of
Savage and Prior Lake completed a corridor study in
2008 which identified access locations along County
Highway 42 from County Highway 21 through the City of
Savage. Maximum allowable access identified in the
City of Prior Lake included the following:
• County Highway 21— full access with a traffic
signal
- Pike Lake Road —full access with a traffic signal
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• Meadowlawn Road —full access with a traffic
signal
• Ferndale Avenue — three - quarter access
• County Highway 18 —full access with a traffic
signal
• New connection —(east of County Highway 18)
right -in /out access
• Aspen Avenue —full access with a traffic signal
• Kensington /Meadow Avenue — right -in /out
It should be noted that the maximum allowable
access is what the future could accommodate.
Traffic signals will not be installed until they meet the
required traffic signal warrants.
Following the 2008 County Highway 42 study, Scott
County made changes to its comprehensive plan.
These changes included:
• County Highway 42 has been designated as
an existing principal arterial route to County
Highway 21.
• County Highway 42 has been designated as
a future principal arterial route through the
entire City of Prior Lake.
• County Highway 21 north of County Highway 42
has been constructed and has been designat-
ed as a principal arterial route.
Because the county extended the principal arterial
designation beyond County Highway 21, new access
strategies will be required for roadways west
of County Highway 21. Figure 7 on the following
page shows existing access as well as the access
strategies identified in the 1999 and 2008 plans.
The Scott County CIP also calls for expansion of
County Highway 83 from two lanes to four lanes
between Wilds Parkway and County Highway 82 with
Transportation/ 12
• Rolling Oaks — right -in /out access
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
a multiuse trail. CH 83 is currently four lanes from County Highway 42 to Wilds Parkway with a multiuse trail.
The project is scheduled for 2015 and will provide additional capacity and pedestrian and bike connections
between County Highway 42 and County Highway 82. This project is being led by the efforts of the Shakopee
Mdewakauton Sioux Community. Longer -term, the county's plans include for widening County Highway 42 to
four lanes through the City of Prior Lake and into the City of Shakopee. The expansion is currently planned for
2020.
Future Network and
Access — City and County
This study reviews the access identified in the 1999 and 2008 studies in context with the new principal arterial
designation for the whole corridor through the community. It will also review the supporting collector roadway
network identified in the city's comprehensive plan to ensure that it can supportthe proposed development
along County Highway 42 and takes into account environmental constraints and property owner input. As
part of the review, future traffic volumes will be identified on the existing and proposed transportation
network. At the base level, it is assumed thatthe county and city would work together to preserve the right
of way needed to accommodate an eventual six -lane facility on County Highway 42 with separated multi -use
trails on both sides of the corridor to support pedestrian and bicycle mobility.
Market Demand
The Commercial Market
The Prior Lake Commercial and Industrial Demand Analysis (Maxfield, 2011) was prepared to provide insight
into future market conditions and demands for commercial and industrial development within the City of
Prior Lake, not just the study area. The study projects what an additional 900,000 square feet will be needed
to meet the demand for retail, office and industrial space through 2030. This is a 72 percent increase from
the 1.25 million square feet that existed in 2011. Approximately 100 to 120 acres of land will be needed to
accommodate this additional space. These statistics are based on economic and demographic trends, as
well as the existing commercial supply and market conditions. The table below breaks down the type of
demand projected over five year increments.
FIGURE 8. Commercial and Industrial Summary
2010 -2030
According to the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, the County Highway 42 Study Area contains 145 acres
of land slated to be zoned for commercial (mostly community retail) and 200 acres slated to be zoned for
Business Office Park. Much of the planned industrial property lies outside of current City boundaries and is
slated to be annexed in 2014. Therefore, it is necessary to re- examine the need for business office parks in
the study area.
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Transportation/ 14
2010 -2015
2015 -2020
2020 -2025
2025 -2030
Total
Retail
55, 000
125,000
125,000
125,000
125,000
Office
45,000
100,000
75,000
75,000
295,000
Industrial
20,000
40,000
60,000
1 260,000
60,000
180,000
Total
120,000
1265,000
260,000
1905,000
FIGURE 8. Commercial and Industrial Summary
2010 -2030
According to the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan, the County Highway 42 Study Area contains 145 acres
of land slated to be zoned for commercial (mostly community retail) and 200 acres slated to be zoned for
Business Office Park. Much of the planned industrial property lies outside of current City boundaries and is
slated to be annexed in 2014. Therefore, it is necessary to re- examine the need for business office parks in
the study area.
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Transportation/ 14
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
The anticipated demand for industrial development
suggests smaller manufacturers, construction
firms, and wholesale companies with less than 10
employees and will need 10,000 square feet or less.
The study concludes new development of industrial
space may be limited by the large amount of space
being marketed in the area.
Given Prior Lake's proximity to larger regional
shopping areas, increased demand for future retail
space will be gradual and will be predicated on what
happens in places such as Burnsville, Shakopee,
and Lakeville. The demand for retail space will
likely grow in direct relation to the growth of the
local population. The Maxfield study reports a
retail leakage in 2010 of 53 percent. Leakage is the
concept that demand for retail in the city will be
developed in other cities. The analysis suggests that
reduced leakage from Prior Lake will result from
new small to medium size stores that serve the local
population with goods and services and could be
accommodated on land along County Highway 42.
Based on the 2030 Comprehensive Land Use Plan,
the land designated for future retail development is
ideally situated all along the corridor. It is, however,
important to note that planning for future retail along
County Highway 42 may put negative pressure on
small to medium retailers located in downtown Prior
Lake.
Based on the estimated demand for additional office
space, the land slated for future Business Office
Parks at the corner of County Highway 42 and County
Highway 18, and the corner of County Highway 42
and County Highway 21 will not be necessary. Both
sites have direct access to U.S. Highway 169 and are
well - located for Business Office Parks. However,
given the anticipated need for smaller businesses
serving the local population and business base, the
Business Office Park slated forthe corner of County
Highway 42 and County Highway 21 would be more
ideal.
Another piece of valuable information regarding the
commercial market is to examine employment data
for Prior Lake. Figure 9 summarizes the changes in
employment overtime. Employment numbers have
remained relatively low despite population increase.
In fact employment decreased between 2000 to 2010,
when population increased 43 percent (almost 7,000
people) over the same time period. This indicates
thatthe employment market is currently weak in
Prior Lake, although it is anticipated that employment
will grow by 2030. The EDA business plan anticipates
a growth of 1,800 new jobs in Prior Lake between
2011 and 2030.
14,000
17,000
�i
i
10,000 �i•fii
8,000 —f- Projected Employment
6,000
(Met Council)
-
�— Actual Employment
4,000
2,000
0 -
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Igure 9. employment Growt
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Transportation/ 15
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
350
300
250
200
#Residential Building
150 Permits
100
So
0
2004 2006 . 2008 2010 2011
Figure 10. Residential Building Permits Isssued (Prior Lake)
25000
20000
15000
—W—Residential Bulldirg
10000 Permits
5000
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2011
Figure 11. Residential Building Permits (Twin Cities Metro)
The Housing Market
As part of this study, available data related to
housing starts, population, and employment
were analyzed at city, county, and regional
levels. Given the housing market slump for
the past five years, it is important to consider
both long -term trends and very short -term
rebounds) rather than analyzing mid -term
housing trends.
Figures 10 and 11 depict a summary of
permits issued in Prior Lake and the Twin
Cities from the past 10 years. These graphs
show a similar trend in new housing
starts. The housing market bottomed out in
2008/2009 at a low of less than 25 percent at
its peak, but has begun to recover, gaining
back to about 50 percent of the housing
starts in 2011/2012 as the peak of the market
in 2004. This is consistent when looking at
the region, or Prior Lake.
Over the past 12 years Prior Lake has, on
average, issued 272 building permits per year.
However, given changes in demographics
regionally, and the current demand for
new housing, this study concludes that 272
new housing starts per year is not likely;
the number will be lower. The demand for
single - family housing will remain strong, as
evidenced by the consistent construction
of single - family housing even in the years
of least construction (see Figure 12) but
the amount oftownhome and apartment
development will be weak in the near future.
Therefore, our study uses an average of 150
to 180 new housing starts per year when
analyzing the needs for additional land in the
study area.
Transportation/ 16
- Figure 12. Prior Lake Residential Building Permits byType
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County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
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Plans For The Future
Prior Lake 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan
The 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan identifies the community's vision for the city, and provides a broad
blueprint on how to get there. One area specifically mentioned in the plan that is within the study area
is the Vierling & Summit Preserve (at County Highway 21 and 42). The area is envisioned as a business
incubator and technology village, including a community college, conference center and resort hotel at
the lake, all connected by trails. The plan goes into further detail to describe the vision for specific areas.
The 2030 vision for this area is described as "a 22nd century, high technology village for living, working and
playing ". It will include a mix of single family homes, apartments and senior housing and cater toward high
end commercial stores such as "REI, Whole Foods, Haskell's and Hockey Giant ".
"The Vierling Property (at County Rd. 42 and Pike
Lake Tr.) is an example of a complete eco- friendly
and healthy - living neighborhood. A mix of single
family homes, multi - family housing and daily -
needs -based businesses are connected in a pe-
destrian- friendly, self- sustaining community within
a community.
The Vierling Property (at County Rd. 21 and
42) is a mix of retail and family units. The
historical significance of farming and natural
environment features like water and rolling hills
are incorporated into development designs. Trails
intersect with the existing trail system."
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Plans For The Future/ 18
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
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Prior Lake Economic
Development Authority
Business Plan
The Prior Lake EDA Business Plan is a document
intended to guide the EDA towards achieving the
City's vision with regard to economic development.
The City's goals regarding jobs and businesses
added and increase in market value are described as
follows. The "Base" figures are projections based
on normal market conditions while the "New" figures
represent increases beyond the historical average.
A goal of the EDA is to work towards increasing
the number of pad -ready sites for commercial and
industrial development. The City has a significant
amount of property guided for commercial
and industrial use; however, little of it can be
development ready within 30 -90 days. The EDA has
compiled a commercial and industrial land inventory
to manage this task and utilizes the 2011 Maxfield
C/I demand analysis report to project demands
for commercial and industrial land. The EDA will
continue to evaluate actions necessary to make
more sites pad -ready to meet potential demands.
This effort is estimated to result in 10 new businesses
and 300 new jobs by 2020.
The plan states the EDA will explore other ways to
encourage commercial and industrial development
in targeted areas of the City, with specific mention
to the County Highway 42 corridor. This may include
feasibility reports for utilities or building partnerships
with land owners. The EDA also wishes to analyze
existing city codes and fees to make Prior Lake more
"business friendly ".
5 -Year Time
Periods
Base Jobs
Created
(Historical)
Plus
New Jobs
Created
Base
Businesses
Added
Plus New
Businesses
Added
Base Value
Increase
(Historical)
Plus
New Value
Increase
2000 -10
5 -Yea r Avg.
235
Xxx
10
xxx
$17 M
xxx
2011 -2015
250
125
10
5
$20 M
$10 M
2016 -2020
350
175
15
S
$25 M
$12 M
2021 -2025
300
150
12
6
$22 M
$11 M
2026 -2030
300
150
13
6
$23 M
$12 M
Total 2011+
1,200
600
50
25
$40 M
$45 M
Figure 15. Expected Employment Growth -EDA Business Plan Figure
Assumptions:
1. 2000 -10 'Base information is based on city building permit activity reports or new commercial and industrial
construction, not including public facilities and mutli- family rental housing
2. Annual increase in base jobs, business and value continue trends from 2000 -2010
3. Estimated increase due to Economic Development ('New') uses the Base times 1.5.
4. Total city /county /school taxes below are estimated using $2.75 per square foot of building space.
Plans For The Future/ 20
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Industry
Construction
Employees
352
Percent
4.5%
SMSC Est.
25
Wholesale Trade
112
1.41
101
Retail Trade
353
4.5%
12.9%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
223
2.91
Education and Health Services
Professional and Technical Services
162
2.11
25
Management,Admin. and Other Services
659
8.41
25
Accommodation and Food Service
3,533
45.2%
3,250
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
149
1.91
75
Public Administration
919
11.7%
Other
TOTAL EMPLOYEES
1,361
7,823
17.4%
100°1
400
3,800
Figure 16. Employment within sub - industries- Prior Lake 2010
Industry
Establishments
Percent
Construction
93
16.6%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
101
18.0%
Financial Activities
72
12.9%
Professional and Business Services
120
21.4%
Education and Health Services
59
10.5%
Leisure and Hospitality
29
5.2%
Other Services
52
9.3%
Public Administration
4
0.7%
Other
30
5.4%
TOTAL BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS
560
100%
Figure 17. Number of Establishments within sub industries- Prior Lake 2010
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Plans For The Future/ 21
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Property Owner Feedback
Individual Property Owners /Ownership Groups
Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux
Community (SMSC)
SMSC Property- The Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux
Community (SMSC) owns 256 acres of land in the
study area in fee or in trust. Based on discussions
with representatives from the SMSC, it is anticipated
thatthe land currently held in fee will ultimately
become trust land, removing it from the land use
jurisdiction of the City of Prior Lake. However, it is
beneficial to discuss what the SMSC's vision for the
property is in order to plan for needed infrastructure
improvements. The SMSC is currently undertaking
an in -depth land use analysis and plan fortheirtrust
property.
In general, the plan is to develop property in Prior
Lake as mostly low- density residential, with the
exception of land immediately adjacent to key
intersections, where there is an opportunity for
commercial development. More specific information
will be available when the SMSC completes their land
use planning process; however, for the purposes of
this study, we included both low- density residential
land uses and commercial land uses in planning for
the future of the SMSC - controlled property.
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Vierling Property — The Vierling family owns 381
acres within the study area, which includes of the
109 acres of property on the southeast corner of
CSAH 21 and County Highway 42 and 272 acres
o located on the east side of Pike Lake. Repre-
sentatives for this land have been involved in the
discussions regarding changes in land use and have
not raised dispute with the proposed designations.
Shepherd Property — The Shepherd Property is
currently exempt from the moratorium in place,
however it is subject to analysis under this study. The
representatives from K. Hovnanian have been part of
the planning process, and wish to see the property
remain guided for a single - family residential land use.
Bolger Property — The Bolger property owners
have been involved in this study, and have primarily
commented on the importance of the alignment and
design of the roadway connection between Carriage
Hills Drive and County Highway 42. Given the need
to locate the intersection as far west as possible
for access spacing and safety reasons, a future
connection to Carriage Hills Drive will be located
partially on the Bolger property. The exact alignment
and configuration will come at the time when a
development application is. However, it is important
to visualize this connection as part of the K.
Hovnanian plat, since the development of one piece
affects the other. The owners anticipate developing i
low- density residential housing.
Plans For The Future/ 22
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Property on Eastern Portion of CSAH 18 —
Feedback from two property owners located on
the east of CSAH 18 in the study area, their plans
were to construct and stay in their single - family
homes forthe foreseeable future.
Previous Summit Preserve Property — City
staff engaged with representatives of Cardinal
Development, the company that currently
controls the former Summit Preserve parcel.
They envision a mixed use concept on their
property.
Community Feedback
Several comments regarding proposed land uses
were received from the public at the draft plan
meeting held on July 9, 2013. Regarding land use, a
comment was received that it makes sense for the
commercial lot on the south side of Fountain Hills
Drive NE to be rezoned to high density residential. In
addition, there was concern expressed over the entire
northeast corner of County Highway 42 and County
Highway 21 being guided for mixed use. Access to
this corner is a concern. Commercial will be most
important if County Highway 42 and County Highway
21 is to become a gateway to Prior Lake. Access and
size of parcels should not be limited.
There was also a concern over the parcel at the
northwest corner of Pike Lake Trail and County
Highway 42 being entirely guided for commercial
when wetlands are an issue on the site.
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There was interest expressed in seeing more
community gardens with new development
as a way to promote local sustainability and
community involvement. Interest in multi -modal
transportation options, specifically infrastruc-
ture for pedestrians and cyclists on new or
improved roads was also inquired about as a
way to allow residents opportunities to exercise
and save money. Comments were received
regarding the potential for public transpor-
tation within the City of Prior Lake, such as a
circulator bus that connects neighborhoods to
desirable locations like downtown Prior Lake,
Village Market and the Savage commercial
district, or the potential for a street car along
county highways 21, 42, and trunk highway 18.
Plans For The Future/ 23
Summit Preserve
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
ii
Summary of Land -use
Findings
Below is a summary of this study's findings, based
on an analysis of the existing conditions:
• 80 to 90 acres of additional commercial prop-
Some property in the study area has immedi-
erty is needed city -wide to meet the demand
ate availability. The eastern most properties
by 2030; therefore, the amount of land guided
in the study area (Summit Preserve) do not
as commercial, business office, and retail in
have ready access to sewer and water
the study area should be reduced. However,
facilities, and have significant environmental
given the EDXs goals for job growth, having
resources; therefore development should be
extra land available for commercial develop-
staged accordingly.
ment is also desirable.
• 20 to 30 acres of industrial land is need-
Property owners and the City of Prior Lake
ed city -wide to meet the demand by 2030;
have a desire to develop their property in a
therefore, there may be an opportunity for
market - driven way; therefore, their individual
some additional industrially guided land in
thoughts and desires should influence the
the study area.
outcome of this study
• Current housing starts suggest an average
of 150 to 180 new starts annually, resulting
in an additional 2,400 to 2,800 households in
Prior Lake (which is significantly lower than
the 2005 Comp Plan anticipates); therefore, a
discussion about the location of new resi-
dential housing in Prior Lake is necessary.
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&�s,a�E ares,zn�. Findings/ 24
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
Land Use
Recommendations
Given the uncertainty of the future, a fbxible
approach was of paramount value when proposing
an alternative land use scenario for the study area.
However, equally important are the property owner's
visions and the stated vision of the community found
in the Prior Lake 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan.
Given the findings of this study, Figure 18 outlines
changes to the land use map and associated
comprehensive plan amendment are recommended.
1) Reduce the amount of land guided for solely
residential. Currently, 600 acres of the study area
are guided for low density residential, 18 acres
guided for medium density, and 136 acres guided for
high density housing. This study recommends
a flexible approach through establishment of a
mixed -use district rather than limiting land to primary
low density, single - family uses. The following 430
residential acres remain outside the new mixed use
areas:
• Proposed R -Low Density (R -LD)
362 acres gross total
Average density of 2 dwelling units
per net acre
• Proposed R- Medium Density (R -MD)
15 acres gross total
Average density of 4.1 dwelling units
per net acre
Proposed R -High Density (R -HD)
53 acres gross total
Average density of 7.1 dwelling
units per net acre
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Recommendations / 25
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
the proposed development and roadway network,
therefore it makes sense to leave flexibility in the
location of commercial development to the
proposer. Given the site's proximity to future
parkland and high value natural resources, it seems
likely that any residential development would be
low- density residential. It makes sense to guide this
area for some high density housing to serve as a
buffer between commercial and lower density
residential uses. This site, however, is challenged
by the necessity of a developer to have to assemble
several properties owned by multiple property
individuals.
Proposed Mixed Use 2 0
(50 percent commercial; 25 percent R- Medium
Density, 25 percent R -High Density)
• 66 acres gross total
• 33 acres gross commercial
• 17 acres gross residential at 4.1 units per net
acre
• 17 acres gross residential at 7.1 units per net
acre
This proposed mixed use district is likely to be the
most compatible with immediate development. The
entire property is owned by one individual, it is well
served by sewer and water, and its location on the
southeast corner of County Highway 21 and County
Highway 42 position it well for the development
market. The city desires to see half of the mixed use
piece be developed with commercial uses catering
to traffic along the corridor, but recognizes that
development may be somewhat constrained by the
existence of a large wetland complex. The adjacent
property guided for low density and high density
residential will probably ultimately become part of an
overall development plan, butthe city felt it important
to retain those designations, given existing adjacent
land uses. The study anticipates some medium density
residential also planned for the mixed use district to
serve as a transition between the low density land
uses and commercial along the corridor.
Proposed Mixed Use 3
(25 percent commercial, 50 percent R- Medium
Density; 25 percent R -Low Density)
- • 207 acres gross total
WSB • 52 acres gross commercial
• 51 acres gross residential at 2 dwelling units
per net acre
• 104 acres gross residential at 4.1 dwelling
units per net acre
The Mixed Use 3 District is also well suited for
immediate development. It too is owned by one
individual and is located in an area that is well
served by the transportation system, but also
has high natural resource value. While the city
anticipates most of the land near Pike Lane being
developed as lowdensity residential, the remaining
207 acres of the Vierling property is anticipated to be
developed with as a Planned Unit Development with
a variety of uses proposed.
Key to developing this parcel will be obtaining
adequate backage roads to serve local traffic, as
outlined in the transportation reccomendations.
This study envisions the development of medium
density housing to serve as a transition between
lowdensity housing and commercial uses. While 52
acres of commercial use for this property is probably
more than adequate to accommodate the market, it
is important to understand the city's 2030 Strategic
Plan and Vision guidance for this area as a premiere
office /technology campus in the future.
Proposed Mixed Use 4 M
(25 percent commercial, 75 percent R- Medium
Density)
• 49 acres gross total
• 12 acres gross commercial
• 37 acres gross residential at 4.1 dwellings
units per net acre
The area on the northeast corner of County Highway
18 and County Highway 42 has previously had a
development proposal, Summit Preserve. While that
approval has expired, the landowner still intends to
develop it as a mixed use site. Therefore, this piece
is also guided for medium density residential, with a
small amount of commercial likely near an access
onto County Highway 42. However, this property is
challenged by the immediate lack of full sanitary
sewer service, and may be a number of years before
service is readily available.
This study does not foresee immediate development
Recommendations / 27
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
at this site. When development does occur, it should
be noted that anew access point at Aspen Avenue
should be anticipated, at which time access from
County Highway 42 to Kensington and Meadow
should be eliminated, and alternative access
from the new Aspen Avenue would be made to
accommodate existing development.
4) It is anticipated that the land currently owned
in fee by SMSC will be entered into trust prior to
its development. However, given the impacts this
area has on transportation and land use planning,
assumptions were made about land use in the area,
in consultation with SMSC. Therefore, portions of this
land have been designated for low- density housing
and for mixed use, as depicted below. This allows for
proper planning of the area, but acknowledges that
final layout and plans fall within the control of the
SMSC, especially if the land is put under trust.
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Proposed Mixed -Use 5 EM
(SMSC) (75 percent low- density residential,
25 percent commercial)
• 182 acres gross total
• 46 acres gross commercial
• 136 acres gross residential at 2 dwelling units
per net acre
5) Add a land use designation for public/
semi - public. This study recommends the addition
of a public /semi - public land use district to the
land use plan. The purpose of this district is to
accommodate future or existing land uses dedicated
to park, permanent open space, large stormwater
management ponds, or other uses that are not
classified in other districts and are used to benefit
the public. Other uses include land owned by
Scott County for right of way purposes and utility
substations. This district allows the city to identify
lands intended for use to benefit the public and not
guided for development. The total acreage proposed
for Public /Semi - Public in the study area is 87 acres.
Recommendations / 28
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
ii
Future
Transportation Plans
Draft Concept Plan — June 2013
In addition to collecting information about previous
studies and plans for County Highway 42, meetings
with city and county staff were held to better
understand any existing transportation concerns as
well as to identify any new information that should
be included as part of the study. As part of the
discussions, previous plats and concepts that had
been submitted to the city (but were ultimately not
approved or built— due to changes in the economy)
were also reviewed. Additionally, the county and city
were asked to provide input on the recommendations
of the previous plans and studies — were there things
that in hindsight did not look like it could work?
The meetings with city and county staff confirmed
that County Highway 42 needed to be treated as a
principal arterial throughoutthe entire city. This
means that the access originally identified in the 1999
study of County Highway 42 is no longer applicable.
In the 1999 study, the area west of County Highway
21 (Eagle Creek Avenue) was identified as a minor
arterial. Additionally, the county indicated that it
would prefer to have access along County Highway
42 reflect opportunities that are actually feasible —
taking into consideration the types of development,
resources that have to be avoided, etc.
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The city confirmed that local roadways were
needed both north and south of County Highway 42
to support development that is planned along the
corridor. The city acknowledged that the supporting
roadways should function as collector roadways
— that they should link the development to County
Highway 42 and not necessarily provide direct
driveway access.
The City of Prior Lake directed the consultant team to
use the information obtained from the environmental
scan performed as part of this study to help identify
where it would generally be feasible to construct
continuous supporting roadways. Locations
where there were significant slopes, wetlands, and
sensitive species /resources were to be avoided if
practical.
Finally, information from past plans was used to
understand generally what traffic volumes were
expected in the future based on land use in the city's
2030 Comprehensive Plan. While the study partners
understood that land use will be changing — it was
a base to understand general demand in the area
and to understand the demand for through traffic on
County Highway 42.
The information above was used to develop a
preliminary supporting roadway and access concept
plan that was presented to property owners along
the corridor on June 4, 2013. This same information,
with comments received from the property owners
noted, was presented at a joint planning commission
and city council meeting on June 17, 2014. Figure 19
shows the original preliminary concept.
Recommendations / 29
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Steps in the Forecasting
Process
The Scott County Travel Demand Model follows
a standard four -step process, in which the major
model components are:
• trip generation
• trip distribution
• mode choice
• traffic assignment
Trip Generation
The first step in forecasting travel is trip generation.
Information from land use, population and economic
forecasts is used to estimate how many person -trips
will be made to and from each zone. Trip generation
is estimated by applying trip generation equations to
socioeconomic information. Trip production zones
are based on household characteristics such as the
number of people in the household and the number
of vehicles available. Trip attractions are based
primarily on the number and type of jobs (retail or
non - retail) in a zone.
Trip Distribution
In the trip distribution stage, trip ends are linked
together to form an origin- destination pattern of trips.
The number of trips between two points is dependent
upon their attractiveness for a given trip purpose and
the separation (distance or travel time) between the
points. A zone with a large number of trip attractions
will receive a greater number of trips than one with
a small number of trip attractions. The other primary
factor in trip distribution is distance. The number of
trips from an origin zone to a given destination zone
decreases with increasing travel time between the
origin zone and the destination zone.
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Mode Choice
Here, trips between a given origin and destination
are split into trips using different modes of travel
including public transit and personal vehicles.
Calculations are conducted that compare the attrac-
tiveness of travel by different modes to determine
their relative usage. The Metropolitan Council's
Regional Travel Demand Model includes a sophis-
ticated mode choice model. This project maintains
consistency with all of the coefficients, networks
and processes.
Traffic Assignment
The fourth step in the modeling process assigns
trips to specific routes. These routes are first
determined based on the shortest travel times
between origins and destinations. The assigned trip
volumes are then compared to the capacity of each
link to determine which links, if any, are congested.
If a link is congested, the speed on the link slows,
resulting in longer travel time assigned to that
link. Trips on congested links will be shifted to less
congested links until there is a system -wide balance
between travel demand and travel supply.
Recommendations / 33
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
Travel Forecasting Process
Travel forecasting involves a series of mathematical equations that attempt to simulate human travel
behavior. The models follow a sequence of steps that answer a series of questions about traveler
decisions. The goal is to simulate choices that travelers make in response to a given system of highways.
Many assumptions need to be made about how people make decisions, the factors they consider, and how
they may react to a particular alternative. The travel simulation process follows trips as they begin at a
trip - production zone (e.g., Home), move through a network of links and nodes (roads and intersections), and
end at a trip- attracting zone (e.g., Workplace).
TAZ
Comp Plan Data
Proposed
Development
Change
2030 Pop
2030 Emp
2030 Pop
2030 Emp
2030 Pop
2030 Emp
1784
2252
389
3231
1062
979
673
1852
402
545
470
22
68
-523
1854
107
35
119
14
12
-21
1855
493
341
1162
387
669
46
1856
520
0
1300
557
780
557
1857
1013
576
1105
886
92
310
1943
349
0
1341
304
992
304
1973
1434
186
2377
1314
943
1128
1976
1207
38
1636
0
429
-38
1978
1582
139
699
734
-883
595
Total
9359
2249
13440
5280
4081
3031
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Recommendations / 34
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
As shown in Figure 23, TAZ zones 1784,1852 -1859,
1943, 1973, 1976, and 1978 directly feed traffic into
the project area. The Scott County and City of Prior
Lake planning organizations agree thatthe population
and employment in these zones is different than was
originally planned. These local changes in population
and employment estimates affect year 2030 forecast
traffic volumes in the study area and have been
applied to the Scott County Travel Demand Model.
The travel simulations used in the Scott County
model represent the highway system as a network.
The networks consist of links to represent highway
segments and nodes to represent intersections. Data
for links include travel times on the link, average
speeds, capacity, and direction of travel. Node data
include information about intersections and the
locations of the nodes (coordinates).
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&a
2030 Traffic Volumes
The traffic projections for County Highway 42 are
shown in Figure 24. It should be noted that the model
takes into account transportation improvement
projects that have been funded at the regional and
local level.
Recommendations / 36
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
Summary of
Transportation Findings
Below is a summary of the findings related to the
transportation network and access along County
Highway 42.
County Highway 42 is an important roadway in
the regional transportation network. It needs
to be able to provide safe and efficient travel
within the county. Because of its importance,
Scott County has identified it as a Principal
Arterial Roadway throughout the county —
including all of Prior Lake. Previously, it was
identified as a Principal Arterial from the east-
ern city limits to County Highway 21.
• County Highway 42 needs to function at a
high -level in order to accommodate future
traffic demand.
Access on County Highway 42 will be limited to
preserve mobility and maintain safety. Road-
way connections to County Highway 42 should
generally be collector roadways and above,
with a majority of the connections being other
principal or minor arterials.
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It is the county's intention to preserve 200 feet
of right of way along County Highway 42 in
order to ensure that adequate capacity can
be provided for along the corridor. As plats
and development along the highway are
submit -ted for review and comment, this area
must be shown for roadway and trail
hudre (trips) on County Highway 42
will increase as land uses intensify and more
development occurs.
• County highway connections to County High-
way 42 (such as County Highways 83, 21 and
18 also play an important role in the
transpor - tation network. Access to these
roadways is also managed by the county to
ensure reliable traffi c fl ow and safety.
Because access is limited to the county
highway network, a majority of the access to
future development will need to come from
the city street network and the street network
operated by the SMSC. Therefore, these
street networks need to provide continuous
travel where feasible.
Recommendations / 38
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan
City of Prior Lake
• Portions of the existing roadway network will
be above capacity (roadway will become
congested) without improvements. Segments
of roadways expected to experience
congestion include:
County Highway 42 west of County
Highway 83 (Canterbury Road S)
County Highway 42 between County
Highway 83 and County Highway 18
• Based on the network identified in the revised
concept plan, adequate connections should
be provided for local trips.
The proposed roadway network and access
plan has some flexibility as implementation
occurs. Alignments and exact access loca-
tions may be tweaked as plats are submitted
and reviewed by the county and city. Howev-
er, roadway connections that are shown as
continuous need to be so. The type of access
shown in the plan is the expected access
along the corridor.
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Recommendations / 39
County Road 42 Study • Land Use and Transportation Plan City of Prior Lake
Transportation
Recommendations
Below is a series of recommendations for the
transportation network. Most of the improvements
identified on the map should be implemented
as development occurs. However, timing for
improvements such as traffic signals will be
dependent upon meeting certain requirements called
traffic signal warrants. Until an intersection meets
those warrants, it is not good nor safe practice
to install a traffic signal. The county and city will
coordinate with one another on the installation
of proposed traffic signals, just as they will for
proposed roadways and access as plats come in for
review and approval.
Recommendations for the future roadway network
and access locations included feedback from
stakeholders atthe July 9th meeting, results of the
travel forecasting and input from city and county staff
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& Assao,l -, In,.
1) The proposed transportation network
and access map (Figure 25) should guide the
development of local street connections that
support intensification of land use along County
Highway 42.
2) The proposed transportation network and
access map show the ultimate connections and
access types that are proposed along /near the
corridor. Because development is incremental,
not all of the changes will be made at once, nor
are they likely all needed at once. This means
that some connections may not be completed
until additional development occurs and some
access locations may not get their traffic
signals right away. Trafft signals should only
be installed once the intersection meets the
required signal warrants.
3) The supporting roadway network should be
sensitive to environmental resources within the
community. Impacts to wetlands, slopes, etc.
should be avoided if possible and minimized if
they cannot be avoided.
Transportation / 40