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HomeMy WebLinkAbout5A Comp Plan Discussion Report 4646 Dakota Street SE Prior Lake, MN 55372 PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA REPORT MEETING DATE: AUGUST 1, 2016 AGENDA #: 5A PREPARED BY: DAN ROGNESS, COMMUNITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR PRESENTED BY: DAN ROGNESS AGENDA ITEM: COMPREHENSIVE PLAN DISCUSSION DISCUSSION: Introduction City staff will continue to present information on the 2030 and 2040 Comprehen- sive Plans. The City is required to submit a 2040 Plan to the Metropolitan Coun- cil by the end of 2018 for its review and approval. History The City Council authorized the start of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan update process in 2016 with most of it to be completed in 2017. Since the Land Use Element of the plan is key to establishing other elements of the plan (i.e., sewer, water, and transportation), staff will update this part of the plan in 2016. Current Circumstances Three items will be reviewed and discussed at this meeting: 1. Homework. Staff previously provided the Commissioners with some “homework” at the last meeting, including: (a) Local Planning Hand- book; (b) Land Use Plan; and (c) MetroStats “The Twin Cities Regional Forecast to 2040: Steady Growth and Big Changes Ahead”. See At- tachments 6-8 for these documents. 2. Downtown Development Guide. The EDA has been discussing the future of downtown Prior Lake, and as a result, it found a development guide that was done in 2000. The consultant that completed the 2000 plan was commissioned to update it by producing two maps, including one that shows what has been accomplished since 2000 and one that shows what should be accomplished in the future (see Attachments 1 and 2). The EDA has asked that other advisory committees review this information, and staff also believes this could be a part of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan related to land use. The Commission will also dis- cuss the division of downtown into Town Center and Transitional Town Center (see Attachment 3). 3. Vacant Residential Land Supply. Staff will review the current resi- dential land supply in Prior Lake and in the Orderly Annexation Area (OAA). This will help us begin to evaluate the number of housing units that need to be planned for based on the 2040 household forecast com- pared to the amount of vacant land available. Based on the 2040 fore- cast of 14,700 households by 2040, the City will add 5,500 units be- 2 tween 2015 and 2040, or an annual average of 220 units/year. See At- tachment 4 for a summary of vacant residential land with estimated lots or units. 4. Public Engagement Process. Staff would like the Commission to begin discussing the type and extent of public engagement/input during the 2040 Plan update process, including the identification of key stake- holders. It is likely that public review will begin in early 2017, but the Commission should help draft a timeline. Examples of public input could include workshops, open houses, public hearings and through various media resources. ISSUES: Conclusion City Staff will continue to discuss the Land Use Element for the updated 2040 Comprehensive Plan with the Planning Commission during 2016. None ALTERNATIVES: Discussion Only RECOMMENDED MOTIONS: N/A ATTACHMENTS: 1. Downtown Development Guide Map (2000) 2. Downtown Development Guide Maps (Draft 7/12/16) 3. Town Center and Transitional Town Center Map 4. Residential Land Supply Summary 5. Orderly Annexation Area Map 6. Local Planning Handbook, Met Council 7. Land Use Plan, Met Council 8. MetroStats DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT GUIDE UPDATE Completed Projects JULY 2016 N 1 1 The City of Prior Lake has made significant investments in civic structures to enhance the downtown public campus with the construction of new City Hall and Police Station. CIVIC CENTER 1 2 Arcadia Avenue is extended form Colorado Street to CSAH 21, to increase access to the businesses south of CSAH 21. The Arcadia Avenue / CSAH 21 intersection was reconstructed to be signalized once Main Avenue is closed. Reconstruction of the Main Avenue / Highway 13 intersection. TRAFFIC 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 Commercial growth is focused on Main Avenue, north of CSAH 21, with some additional development south of CSAH 21. Existing building facade improvements completed throughout downtown. COMMERCIAL GROWTH 4 Multi-family residential housing has been constructed near the intersection of Dakota Street and Main Avenue. A multi-family residential structure of 168 units is currently under construction in the Gateway District northeast of the downtown core. HIGHER DENSITY HOUSING 5 5 5 Enhancements at Lakefront Park (Kop Family Farm) and the addition of the Rotary Park along Dakota Street with trail connections help anchor the north end of downtown with park and recreation amenities. COMMUNITY GATHERING 6 6 6 7 7 Main Avenue and Dakota Street are restructured to accommodate diagonal parking on both sides of the street. Surface parking lots are located on the interior of city blocks to maximize the amount of businesses fronting streets. They are in close proximity to Main Avenue to minimize the walking distance from car to shopping. PARKING 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 Main Avenue, Dakota Street and Arcadia Avenue have become more pedestrian friendly streets that encourage walking, shopping and lingering downtown. They are enhanced through the use of shade trees, ornamental street lighting, benches, paving and other site amenities. Erie Avenue improved as a pedestrian / vehicle corridor. CSAH 21 is a landscaped boulevard that indicates to drivers that they have entered into downtown and traffic speeds are reduced within the downtown limits. PEDESTRIAN SPACES 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 15 15 13 13 14 14 Downtown entries are marked by monument signs, architectural elements, landscaping and lighting. ENTRIES 12 The City of Prior Lake has moved toward expanding the downtown area by planning connections to the South Lake and Gateway Districts. CONCEPT C PLAN ADDITIONS 15 Trails link Lakefront Park and the northern neighborhoods to downtown and the civic core. Improved open space areas south and east of City Hall. OPEN SPACE LINKAGES 13 14 00.250.50.125 Miles 0800 1,600 2,400400Feet DRAFT 7.12.2016 DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT GUIDE UPDATE JULY 2016 N Planned Projects 00.250.50.125 Miles 0800 1,600 2,400400Feet Enhance the downtown public campus and linkage to Lakefront Park with a Community Center or expanded business adjacent to City Hall and Rotary Park. CIVIC CENTER A G F E E D D A D D D D C B B B B C Proposed improvements to the CSAH 21 and Highway 13 intersection include the addition of a median at the center of CSAH 21 at Main Avenue to allow right-in/right out movements only on Main Avenue and the installation of a signal at the Arcadia Avenue and CSAH 21 intersection. Improvements also include a new right-in/right-out intersection at Dakota Street and Highway 13 and Duluth Avenue and CSAH 21 and the realignment of Pleasant Street to incorporate a 3/4 intersection and median at Highway 13 (2019) Extend Arcadia Avenue south connecting CSAH 21 to Pleasant Street. TRAFFIC D Focus commercial growth on along Highway 13 and CSAH 21, with additional development south of CSAH 21. COMMERCIAL GROWTH F Potential for new or improved community gathering space at the south end of Main Avenue connecting downtown to the natural areas to the south. COMMUNITY GATHERING Potential for multi-family residential housing development south of CSAH 21. HIGHER DENSITY HOUSING E I J J J J HGSurface parking lots will be located and maintained on the interior of city blocks to maximize the amount of businesses fronting Main Avenue They are in close proximity to Main Avenue to minimize the walking distance from car to shopping. Structured parking with a retail facade facing Dakota Street and Main Avenue will be considered long term. PARKING FH Upgrade Main Avenue, from CSAH 21 to Pleasant Avenue, to become a pedestrian friendly street that encourage walking, shopping and lingering downtown. Enhance through the use of shade trees, ornamental street lighting, benches, paving and other site amenities. PEDESTRIAN SPACES K K I J Provide entry signage similar to entry sign at Main Avenue and Highway 13 intersection will signal entry into Downtown on the northwest corner of CSAH 21 and Highway 13 outside of planned roadway improvements. Downtown entries are marked through the use of architectural elements, landscaping and lighting as established on Main Avenue and Dakota Street. Install landscaping and trails along Highway 13 from Main Avenue to Pleasant Avenue. ENTRIES K Establish trail connections to northern and southern neighborhoods adjacent to downtown core. OPEN SPACE LINKAGES NOTE: Graphic do not represent actual development proposals and is intended as a guiding document for planning purposes only. Development show is contingent on willingness and support of property owners. DRAFT 7.12.2016 SPR ING LAKETOWNSHIP SAVAGE Lower Prior Lake UpperPrior Lake Spring Lake HowardLake CampbellLake RiceLake Cleary Lake PRIOR LAKE SHAKOPEE 2014 14.2 201212.1 201010.2 202424.3 20077.1 2014 14.1 201010.1 20088.1 201010.3 20088.2 202424.2 202424.1 Urban Expansion AreaNot Includedin Annexation 20088.1 456744 456712 456712 456721 456721 456742 456742 456783 456782 456779 456779 456717456779 456782 456742 456717 456717 456727 456723 456723 456787 456787 456781 456778 456718 456779 456716 456721 456768 456768 456714 456781 456770 456715 -A13 -A13 -A13 -A13 -A282 -A13 Shakopee School District P r i o r L a k e - S a v a g e S c h o o l D i s t r i c t Jo rdan School Distri ct PRIO R LAKE / SP RIN G LAKE ANNEXATIONCity of P rio r Lak eMinnesota 2013 .REMAININGPROPOSEDANNEXATION Last Updated April 2013X:\Land_M anagement\Annexation\Annexation_2013_36x40.mxd Year of Proposed Annexation Corresponding Sectionof Annex. Agreem ent 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10.125 Miles This drawing is neither a legally recorded map nor a survey and is not intended to beused as one. This drawing is a compilation of records, information and data from variouscity, county and state offices and other sources. This document should be used forreference only. No representation is made that features presented accurately reflect truelocation. The City of Prior Lake, or any ot her entity from which data was obtained,assumes no liability for any error s or omissions herein. If discrepancies are found, pleasecontact the City of Prior Lake. City of Prior Lake School District Township Boundaries Park - Rec Area SM SC Trust Property Annexation Areas: 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014 2024 Property Not Includedin Annexation Area June 2016 The Twin Cities Regional Forecast to 2040: Steady Growth and Big Changes Ahead METROSTATS Exploring regional issues that matter Key findings The Metropolitan Council forecasts population, households, and jobs with a 30-year horizon for the seven-county Twin Cities region. Our regional forecast provides a shared foundation for coordinated, comprehensive planning by the Council and local governments. The latest regional and local forecast tables and forecast methodology report are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts. Our focus Our findings The Twin Cities region is poised for continued growth and development. The region will gain residents and jobs between 2010 and 2040. More than other factors, employment and economic opportunities attract new residents to the region. Below What is the "big picture" for the Twin Cities region over the next 30 years? How will our region's future look different from its past? Major demographic shifts now under- way will change our region dramati- cally. By 2040, the region's population will be • more racially and ethnically diverse; • older; and • more often living in smaller households. Page 2 How will these changes affect our economy and housing markets? The population churn of people moving into and out of the Twin Cities region will drive the racial and ethnic diversity of our workforce and school enrollments. The aging of our region's population means older adults' preferences and housing needs will significantly re- shape the housing market. Page 5 METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 1 The region will gain residents and jobs in the next 30 years Our regional forecast shows the Twin Cities region will gain 802,000 residents over the next three decades, bringing the region's population to 3,652,000 by 2040 (Figure 1). Each decade the region's population growth rate varies slightly: a 10% growth rate is expected in the current decade (2010-2020), it will fall to 8% in the 2030s. The Twin Cities region will also add 489,000 jobs between 2010 and 2040. Employment will grow rapidly in the short-term (about 16% in the 2010s), and then at a slower pace in the 2020s and 2030s. FIGURE 1. METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S REGIONAL FORECAST TO 2040 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population 2,850,000 3,128,000 3,389,000 3,652,000 Households 1,118,000 1,257,000 1,378,000 1,492,000 Employment 1,544,000 1,791,000 1,913,000 2,033,000 As the Twin Cities region grows, it will change: three major demographic shifts now underway will shape and reshape our region dramatically. METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 2 By 2040, two in every five residents of the Twin Cities region will be a person of color Over the next three decades, the Twin Cities region will become more racially and ethnically diverse. The region's population of color will more than double during the forecast period, going from 676,000 in 2010 to 1,489,000 in 2040 (Figure 2). In contrast, the region's White population will level off, then decline slightly over this timeframe. This shift means residents of color will comprise a greater share of our region's population, increasing from 24% in 2010 to 41% in 2040. • The Latino population will increase from 168,000 in 2010 to 379,000 in 2040. These gains mean Latinos will become 10% of the region's total population by 2040 (compared with 6% in 2010). • The Black and African American population will increase from 234,000 in 2010 to 485,000 in 2040. Black residents will become 13% of the region's total population by 2040, up from 8% in 2010. • Asian residents and other non-Latino race groups will increase from 274,000 in 2010 to 625,000 in 2040. Asian residents and residents of other race groups were 10% of the region's total population in 2010 and will become 17% by 2040. By 2040, one in every five residents of the Twin Cities region will be age 65 or older While every age group will grow, none will grow as fast as the older adult population (those age 65 or older). The Twin Cities region's older adult population will double between 2010 and 2030 and will continue to grow through- out the forecast period, going from 307,000 older adults in 2010 to 796,000 in 2040 (Figure 3). Between the aging of Baby Boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964) and longer life expectancies, older adults will become a much greater factor in both housing and consumer markets. In 2010, older adults were 11% of the region's total population; by 2040, this share will increase to 22%. The prime working-age population—ages 25 to 64—will grow only 11% during the same time period. The Millennial generation (people born between 1981 and 2000) is roughly comparable in size to the Baby Boomer generation. Millennials are numerous enough to fully replace Baby Boomers aging out of the workforce. However, Millennials will not hold as large a share of the working-age population as Baby Boomers once did. Lastly, the population under age 25 will grow 15% over the next 30 years: the number of children and young adults will rise from 964,000 in 2010 to 1,107,000 by 2040. FIGURE 2. POPULATION BY RACE AND ETHNICITY, 2010-2040 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts Black, non-Latino White, non-Latino Asian and other races, non-Latino Latino 2010 2020 2030 2040 2,174,000 234,000 2,232,000 2,216,000 2,163,000 304,000 386,000 485,000274,000 370,000 490,000 625,000 379,000 297,000 222,000 168,000 METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 3 FIGURE 3. POPULATION BY AGE, 2010-2040 Ages 15-24 Ages 0-14 Ages 25-64 Ages 65+ 2010 2020 2030 2040 581,000 383,000 601,000 623,000 667,000 403,000 418,000 440,000 1,579,000 1,649,000 1,661,000 1,749,000 796,000 687,000 476,000307,000 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts By 2040, people living alone will account for a third of the region's households Our forecast shows the region will have 1,492,000 households by 2040, up 33% from the 1,118,000 households counted by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2010 (Figure 4). In 2010, one-person households (people living alone) accounted for 11% of the region's population, but 29% of households. By 2040, those shares will rise to 13% of the region's total population and 33% of all households. The growth of one-person households is mainly due to the aging of the region's population described earlier—that is, that the number of older adults and older households will grow by over 150% by 2040. Many older adults will experience widowhood and spend some amount of time living alone. FIGURE 4. HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE, 2010-2040 Two-or-more-person household One-person household 2010 2020 2030 2040 319,000 799,000 378,000 434,000 491,000 879,000 944,000 1,001,000 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts This report has discussed three notable demographic trends taking place in the Twin Cities region over the next 30 years: our future population will be more racially and ethnically diverse, older, and more often living in smaller households. Next, we'll describe how these broader shifts take shape, and how they will influence our regional economy and housing markets. Both natural growth and immigration will drive future population growth Two dynamics drive population growth: natural growth—that is, births outpacing deaths—and (domestic) migration METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 4 or (international) immigration—that is, people moving from other parts of the country or other parts of the world, respectively. Both will contribute to the region's population growth over the next three decades. • Natural growth will add 586,000 new residents to the Twin Cities region by 2040 (Figure 5). This will account for 73% of the region's total population growth between 2011 and 2040. • The Twin Cities region will continue to be an immigration gateway: the region will gain 380,000 new residents through international immigration. Of the expected international immigrants, which will hail from all continents, 81% will be residents of color. The remaining 19% will be White residents, mainly from Europe and Canada. Immigration, then, is part of our region's accelerating racial and ethnic diversity. • Domestic migration amounts to a cumulative loss of 164,000 people between 2010 and 2040. This is not a new trend: recent census data show that in a typical year, 90,000 to 100,000 people move to the Twin Cities region from other parts of Minnesota or the U.S. while another 95,000 to 105,000 people leave the region. Over time, the net difference between those arrivals and departures adds up (to a negative number, in this case). Considering international immigration and domestic migration together, the region's net gain or loss varies over time and is related to economic conditions. For example, the Twin Cities region did not gain jobs between 2000 and 2010 and therefore both a) did not attract new residents, and b) lost residents who sought employment opportunities elsewhere (economic migrants), resulting in an overall net loss over this time period. Since 2010, the regional economy has rebounded, drawing new residents seeking employment opportunities and competi- tive wages. Though domestic migration between 2011 and 2020 is still negative, our region's positive economic climate will improve retention. FIGURE 5. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH BY DECADE Domestic migration International immigration Natural growth 2001-2010 2021-2030 2031-2040 -132,000 108,000 -44,000 -65,000 -55,000 107,000 129,000 144,000 231,000 215,000 197,000 174,000 2011-2020 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts Our region's workforce and school enrollments will be more racially and ethnically diverse The growth of the region's older adult population is a dominant demographic trend: many Twin Cities workplaces are now experiencing a retirement boom. So far, however, issues of aging are concerns primarily for the region's White residents. These trends will be experienced quite differently by the region's residents of color. Consider that: • The number of working-age residents of color will more than double between 2010 and 2040 (Figure 6). The number of White residents ages 25 to 64 will shrink by 19% over the same period. In 2010, 80% of work- ing-age residents were White; by 2040, this share drops to 59%. • The number of children and young adults of color will nearly double between 2010 and 2040 (Figure 6). At the same time, the number of White residents under age 25 will decrease by 21%. By 2040, over half of the region's children (under age 15) and young adults (ages 15 to 24) will be people of color. This shift will have significant implications for the region's future workforce and school enrollments. METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 5 Migration and immigration play a large role in this story: while employment and business opportunities draw in workers and students, the region also loses residents who have non-economic priorities, such as retirees. Many of these retirees are White and may move to other parts of Minnesota or the U.S. Meanwhile, the region is gaining immigrants, most of whom are people of color and also younger (people in their 20s and 30s). This population churn—that is, who moves to and away from the Twin Cities region—will further the racial and ethnic diversity of the region. Family formation also contributes to this demographic shift. The average lifetime childbearing among White resi- dents is now about 1.7 children per female. Birth rates are higher among Black females (3 children), Latino females (2.5 children), and Asian females (2.6 children). The higher birth rates across females of color lead to greater shares of children of color and overall higher natural growth rates compared with White residents. FIGURE 6. POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY AND AGE, 2010-2040 366,000 119,000344,000 309,000 284,000 149,000 186,000 229,000 1,265,000 1,208,000 1,082,000 1,026,000 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts Ages 25-64 Ages 65+Ages 15-24Ages 0-14 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 284,000 425,000 592,000 642,000 215,000 256,000 314,000 383,000 317,000 441,000 579,000 722,000 25,000 51,000 95,000 154,000 White, non-Latino residents The housing needs of older adults will shape our future housing market As the Twin Cities region's age mix changes, its mix of households changes with it. Households headed by older adults will more than double in number by 2030 and will account for a third of all households by 2040 (Figure 7). The housing needs and preferences of older adults will become an important driver of the region's housing mar- ket. The region's older adults are mostly long-time residents, and many currently live in single-family detached housing. In 2010, just under half (47%) of older adult householders lived alone. While some older adults will 'age in place,' a growing number will opt for townhomes, apartments, and age-specific housing communities. This housing choice trend is more pronounced as people age into their 70s and 80s. As older adults leave their single-family homes, younger families may be ready for them, reducing the demand for new construction of single-family homes. The growth rate of households headed by someone under age 65 will be low over the next 30 years. Much of the new household formation in the region will amount to a one-for-one replacement of Baby Boomer households who are steadily aging out of the family-age or working-age groups. Thus, over the next three decades, this mar- ket segment adds only 72,000 households. Residents of color 264,000 254,000 233,000 211,000 METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | metrocouncil.org/metrostats | 6 FIGURE 7. HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER AND SIZE, 2010-2040 One-person household Two-person household Three-or-more-person household 229,000 280,000 243,000 238,000 250,000 291,000 278,000 291,000 Source: Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts Two-or-more-person household One-person household 2010 2020 2030 2040 418,000 422,000 435,000 458,000 90,000 135,000 196,000 241,000101,000 162,000 231,000 253,000 Householder under age 65 Householder age 65 or older Steady job growth will continue to attract workers from surrounding areas Our forecast shows the region gaining 489,000 jobs between 2010 and 2040 (Figure 8). Jobs will grow rapidly in the short-term (16% growth in the 2010s) and at a slower pace in the 2020s and 2030s (7% and 6%, respectively). Job growth over the next 30 years is modest by historical standards: job growth rates were higher in the 1980s (22%) and 1990s (26%), but this was then followed by a net loss of jobs during the 2000s. Employment opportunities in the Twin Cities region attract new residents as well as those who work at a job in region but live in Greater Minnesota and Wisconsin. In 2010, 6.8% of earnings at Twin Cities workplaces were earned by these external commuters. (This is offset by 1.3% of Twin Cities' household earnings coming from re- verse commuters who work in Greater Minnesota, Wisconsin, or elsewhere.) This balance of long-distance com- muters will persist long-term as the Twin Cities region remains the dominant economic center for the extended metro area. FIGURE 8. JOBS IN THE TWIN CITIES REGION, 1970-2040 Source: Metropolitan Council analysis of Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 1970-2010; Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast (July 2015). The latest forecasts are available at metrocouncil.org/forecasts 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 779,000 1,040,000 1,273,000 1,608,000 1,544,000 1,791,000 1,913,000 2,033,000 Actual Forecasted METROSTATS Metropolitan Council | Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org/metrostats contact us: research@metc.state.mn.us 7 The region's Gross Metro Product (the sum of value added by all industry sectors) will rise from $214 billion in 2010 to $481 billion in 2040 (in current 2015 dollars). These figures are the equivalent of 1.3% of the U.S. Gross Domes- tic Product in 2010 and 1.4% in 2040. For context, the Twin Cities region has (and will have) less than 1% of the nation's total population over this 30-year period. About the regional forecast To prepare its long-range, regional forecast, Metropolitan Council uses REMI PI, a regional economic model. The REMI PI model utilizes computable general equilibrium and new economic geography techniques to project for- ward time-series of economic activity and demographic outcomes. The REMI PI projections are informed by data on the region’s industry mix, costs and productivity, and analysis of regional competitiveness within the national economy. Employment, migration and population outcomes directly flow from projected economic performance. To obtain household counts, the REMI PI population projection is divided into household types using race-specific, age-specific household formation rates from analysis of U.S. Census data. This regional forecast is consistent with the local forecasts adopted by the Metropolitan Council in July 2015. To download the most current regional and local forecast tables or to learn more about our forecast methodology, please visit metrocouncil.org/forecasts.