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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10A - Shepherd's Path PUD CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT 16200 Eagle Creek Avenue S.E. Prior Lake, MN 55372-1714 MEETING DATE: . AGENDA #: PREPARED BY: DECEMBER 5, 2005 lOA DANETTE MOORE, PLANNING COORDINATOR AGENDA ITEM: CONSIDER APPROVAL OF AN ORDINANCE AMENDING THE ZONING MAP TO DESIGNATE PROPERTY AS THE SHEPHERD'S PATH PUD AND A RESOLUTION APPROVING A PRELIMINARY PLAT TO BE KNOWN AS SHEPHERD'S PATH DISCUSSION: Introduction: Shepherd's Path Senior Housing, Inc. has applied for approval of a development to be known as Shepherd's Path on the property located north ofCSAH 42, west of Pike Lake Trail, east of CSAH 83, and in the vicinity of McKenna Road. The application includes the following requests: . Approve a Planned Unit Development Preliminary Plan; and . Approve a Preliminary Plat. The proposal calls for a mixed use development consisting of 442 senior housing units, a YMCA facility, youth center, medical office/clinic, bank, park area, trails, and companion uses to the existing church (meeting areas, daycare, retreat center) on approximately 71 acres. The Planning Commission conducted a public hearing on this item on November 14,2005 (attached). The Planning Commission continued the application request to November 28,2005. At the November 28th meeting, the Commission considered and approved the Preliminary Plat and PUD with the conditions identified at the earlier meeting. Current Circumstances: As the City Council may recall, Section 1106.400 of Code lists the following types of uses and standards for a PUD. These are: (1) Variety: Within a comprehensive site design concept a mixture of land uses, housing types and densities. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc www.cityofpriorlake.com Page 1 Phone 952.447.4230 / Fax 952.447.4245 (2) Sensitivity: Through the departure from the strict application of required setbacks, yard areas, lot sizes, minimum house sizes, minimum requirements, and other performance standards associated with traditional zoning, planned unit development can maximize the development potential of land while remaining sensitive to its unique and valuable natural characteristics. (3) Efficiency: The consolidation of areas for recreation and reductions in street lengths and other utility-related expenses. (4) Density Transfer: The project density may be clustered, basing density on number of units per acre versus specific lot dimensions. (5) District Integration: The combination of uses which are allowed in separate zoning districts, such as: a. Mixed residential allows both densities and unit types to be varied within the project. b. Mixed residential with increased density acknowledging the greater sensitivity of PUD projects, regulation provides increased density on the property if a PUD is utilized. c. Mixed land uses with the integration of compatible land uses within the project. The following analysis summarizes the proposed plan and its compliance with Zoning and Subdivision Ordinance requirements. Total Site Area: The total site consists of 71.2 acres. Topoeraphv: This site has varied topography, with elevations ranging from 908' MSL at its highest point to 862' MSL at its lowest point. Veeetation: Historically, much of the site has been used for agricultural purposes and therefore largely contains brush and grassland areas. The site has a limited number of significant trees and is subject to the Tree Preservation requirements of the Zoning Ordinance. Wetlands: There is a complex of wetlands located in the south and central portions of the site with another smaller wetland located on the northeast comer of the site. Eight wetlands encompass approximately 10.5 acres of the site, with the largest (7.63 acres) classified as a Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Protected Water. The current site plan does not propose to impact any of the wetlands on the property. The Engineering staff is evaluating road alignments and may require slight adjustments that may impact a smaller wetland on the site. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report.doc Page 2 Access: Access to the site is from CSAH 42, which is classified as "A" Minor Arterial in the Comprehensive Plan Transportation Plan. The plan proposes a full intersection onto CSAH 42 from a new roadway referred to on the site plan as McKenna Road (extending north to south and connecting with the existing McKenna Road to the north on SMSC trust land). In addition, a % access is proposed at CSAH 42 from the existing McKenna Roadway (site plan refers to as Old McKenna Road). As development takes place on the adjacent property to the east, a roadway will be extended from the eastern property boundary to Old McKenna Road (existing roadway). A future roadway is anticipated along the northeastern property line, which will connect to the Old McKenna roadway and allow access from the northern property when development takes place (right-of-way is currently in place for this anticipated future roadway). 2020 Comprehensive Plan Desienation: This property is designated for High Density Residential on the 2020 Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map. The City Council approved an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map, redesignating 5 acres of this site from High Density Residential to Community Retail Shopping. This plan has not been approved by the Metropolitan Council, yet, although we are confident the Metropolitan Council will approve the amendment. Zonine: The site is presently zoned R-4 (High Density Residential) and A (Agricultural). Shoreland: A small southeastern portion of the property is located within the Shoreland District for Jeffers Pond, a Recreational Development Lake. As such, this area of the property is subject to the Shoreland PUD requirements listed in Section 1104 of the Zoning Ordinance. PROPOSED PLAN Lots: The preliminary plat consists of nine lots for 442 senior housing units, a YMCA facility, youth center, medical office/clinic, bank, park area, and additional areas for companion uses to the existing church. Density: Density of the development is based on the net area of the site, which is 68.0 acres. There are a total of 442 units proposed, for an overall density of 6.5 units per acre. This density is consistent with the R-L/MD (Urban Low to Medium Density) classification in the 2020 Comprehensive Plan, which allows up to 30 units per acre. Streets: This plan proposes the following streets: 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 3 . McKenna Road. This new roadway will take the name of the existing McKenna Road, which will be renamed in the future. The new roadway is located on the western portion of the site plan. McKenna Road will extend north to south and connect with the existing McKenna Roadway to the north on SMSC trust land. The intersection at the northern property line will have a four way stop and the intersection at CSAH 42 will have a full access. . Old McKenna Road (will be renamed in the future). This street is the existing access for the church facility and will be realigned at the northern property line with a T intersection to serve as a traffic calming measure. . As development takes place on the adjacent property to the east, a roadway will be extended from the eastern property boundary to Old McKenna Road. . A future roadway is also anticipated along the northeastern property line, which will connect to the Old McKenna roadway and allow access from the northern property as development takes place (right-of-way is currently in place for this anticipated roadway). Sidewalks/Trails: The proposed plan provides both an interior trail system, and connections to the regional trail system. The proposed trail will connect with the City trail system on the western and eastern property boundaries along CSAH 42. The trail system will also extend along the interior of the site near the wetland area and the public park. Parks: The site plan shows a public park located in the south-central portion of the site, west of the existing McKenna Road. The development proposes to dedicate 5.67 acres for a public park. The minimum dedication requirement for a development of this size is 10% of the net land area, or 6.8 acres. The developer is also eligible for parkland dedication credit for the land occupied with a public traiL If any additional park dedication is necessary, the developer will be required to provide cash dedication in lieu of land. The proposed park is bounded by wetlands and open space. The park will contain a gazebo and playground area. The park will also have a parking area to accommodate citizens wishing to access the park and trail system. Buildine Styles/Materials: The developer has provided an elevation rendering within the development (attached) to demonstrate the proposed building styles throughout the development. The narrative indicates "the buildings will be clad with durable, natural materials, simple and consistent detailing and small scale massing elements to convey a residential character. Structures will have a minimum of 15% stone and/or rock faced block with natural tones of the landscape. The remainder will be hard surface material such as ]:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim p1at\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 4 stucco or cement board siding. Roofing on the residential structures will be a profile shingle colored to compliment the stone. " The proposed structures will not exceed four stories in height. The structures will be to scale with the existing church on the site and those of the adjacent commercial and residential structures within Jeffers Pond (to the south). The PUD is divided into the following four phases: Phase 1 ~ A 30,000 sq. ft. "Town Center". The two story building is proposed to contain the following: · Chapel. The 50-seat chapel will offer an additional worship space. · Community Room. The space will adjoin the chapel and offer additional space up to 100 people. . Library. The resource room will be supported by the Prior Lake Public Library. . Convenience Center. The market area will provide a limited grocery area, pharmacy, banking, and other general convenience options for campus consumers. . Beauty/Barber Shop. . Lounge. · Fitness Center. The fitness center will offer equipment and services specializing in the medical needs of seniors. . Technology Center. A space containing computers and support services. . Cafe. ~ Residential Units/Parking: . A four (4) level building containing underground parking, 54 units of assisted living, and 18 units of memory care. . A four (4) level building containing underground parking and 83 units of independent living. ~ Safe Haven Youth Center. The 11,959 sq. ft. space is proposed to contain the following: · Office/Activity Space. A 7,447 sq. ft. portion of the structure will be dedicated to office and common space to provide support services, counseling, life skills training, and recreational options. . Residential Living. Ultimately, at a later time, Safe Haven for Youth would like to build an addition to the primary structure (adding 4,512 sq. ft.) that would accommodate five (5) efficiency apartments and a lounge area. The efficiency apartment units will be targeted to at-risk 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim p1at\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 5 individuals ranging in age from 18-24. The apartments will have supportive services provided. Phase 2 ~ Residential Units: . A three (3) level building containing underground parking and 90 senior housing units. ~ Athletic Facilities: . A 96,000 sq. ft. soccer dome. . Soccer fieldlHockey Rink. Phase 3 ~ Residential Units: . A three (3) level building containing underground parking and 90 senior housing units. . Two (2)-two level buildings containing underground parking and 72 units of senior housing. Phase 4 ~ Residential Units: . A three (3) level building containing 80 skilled care units. Future Phases ~ YMCA Facility. The 40,000 sq. ft. facility will contain an aquatic and fitness center. ~ A 1.3 acre outlot located immediately east of McKenna Road is proposed to contain a future bank/office facility. ~ A 3.0 acre outlot located east of Old McKenna Road is proposed to contain a clinic/ medical office building. Shoreland Requirements: The maximum impervious surface allowed in the Shoreland District is 30% of the lot area above the OHW. In addition, the Shoreland ordinance requires at least 50% of the area within the Shoreland District be preserved as open space. The developer must demonstrate that these requirements will be met. The only portion of the site located within the Shoreland District is the southeast comer. This portion of the site is primarily stormwater ponding and a portion of a future commercial area. Landscapine: Landscaping will be required for each element of this development. Due to the size of the PUD, the specific landscaping requirements will be reviewed at each final stage. Tree Replacement: There are 136 caliper inches of significant trees proposed to be impacted on this site. 69.5 caliper inches of significant trees will be provided for replacement. Specific tree locations will be provided at the time of Final PUD approval. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report.doc Page 6 Traffic Impact Report: A traffic impact report was submitted with this development plan. The total daily trips generated from this development at build-out are estimated to be 4,301. Since the time of the traffic study submittal, further revisions to the site plan have taken into account many of the traffic study findings. The study concludes the following: 1.All key intersections currently operate at an acceptable overall level of service (LOS) or better during the a.m. and p.m. with existing traffic controls and geometric layout. 2. Under year 2009 no-build conditions, all key intersections will continue to operate at an acceptable overall LOS C or better, with the following baseline no build intersections improvements: - CSAH 42/(New) McKenna Road-Installation of a traffic signal. - CSAH 42/(Old) McKenna Road-Modification to a-% -intersection with righ-in/right-out only and left-in for westbound vehicles. Market Study: Section 1106.703 requires that an application for a PUD include a market study identifying the market area of the project and the demand trends within this area. The market study submitted by the developer is dated December 31,2004 (attached). The Market Study specifically looked at senior housing developments in the area of Shakopee, Savage, Jordan, and Prior Lake. The market study revealed the following: . The primary market for assisted living housing in the Market Area is seniors age 75 and over with incomes of$35,000 or more. . That 35% of the demand for assisted living at the proposed development would come from seniors currently living outside the Market Area. . Demand will continue to grow over the next five years to support an additional 48 assisted living units by 2009. . The demand exists for 297 subsidized/affordable senior housing units in the Market Area. However, it should be noted that there are also three pending affordable projects by the Scott County HRA. . The rapidly growing senior population in the Prior Lake Market Area will contribute to increasing numbers of seniors needing skilled care, resulting total potential demand of 253 skilled care beds in 2004. . The housing product with the greatest potential to succeed over the next five years (based on unmet market demand) are congregate, memory care, and skilled care components. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 7 Environmental Assessment Worksheet: On November 21,2005, the City Council reviewed the EA W prepared for this development. The Council determined there was no need for an Environmental Impact Statement. Fees and Assessment: This development will be subject to the standard development fees. PUD PRELIMINARY PLAN: The PUD must be reviewed based on the criteria found in Section 1106.100 and 1106.300 of the Zoning Ordinance. Section 1106.100 discusses the purpose of a PUD. These criteria are discussed below. (J) Provides a flexible approach to development which is in harmony with the purpose and intent of the City's Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Ordinance. The proposed PUD is consistent with the Comprehensive Land Use Plan designations on the entire site. The PUD approach allows the location of the different land uses in ways that preserve and enhance the natural features of the site. (2) More creative, efficient and effective use of land, open space and public facilities through mixing of land uses. The proposed PUD plan allows for the preservation of open space by providing a plan that will not impact expansive wetland complex on the site. (3) Create a sense of place and provide more interaction among people; The PUD plan proposes trails, and other pedestrian elements to connect all elements of the PUD while also creating internal interaction spaces and services for people. (4) Increase economic vitality and expand market opportunities; The proposed commercial areas will provide for internal users while not drawing away from key retail/commercial nodes within the City. (5) Support long-term economic stability by strengthening the tax base, job market and business opportunities; The new residential areas, along with the commercial development, will strengthen the City's tax base. (6) Increase transportation options, such as walking, biking or bussing; The plan will allow for additional access points for individuals wishing to utilize the City trail system. The parking area adjacent to the park will also provide parking for those who wish to use the trail system. (7) Provide opportunities for life cycle housing to all ages. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report.doc Page 8 The PUD plan includes several housing types, from at-risk efficiency housing for 18-24 year olds to senior housing to skilled care housing. (8) Provide more efficient and effective use of streets, utilities, and public facilities that support high quality land use development at a lesser cost. The development utilizes a mix of public and private streets. The public streets provide access through the development and to adjacent properties. The private streets are primarily used for the townhouse developments, and will be maintained by a homeowners association. (9) Enhanced incorporation of recreational, public and open space components in the development which may be made more useable and be more suitably located than would otherwise be provided under conventional development procedures. The PUD district also encourages the developer to convey property to the public, over and above required dedications, by allowing a portion of the density to be transferred to other parts of the site. The PUD incorporates a park and trails that will connect into the City trail system. (J 0) Preserves and enhances desirable site characteristics and open space, and protection of sensitive environmental features including, but not limited to, steep slopes, wetlands, and trees. Where applicable, the PUD should also encourage historic preservation, re-use and redevelopment of existing buildings. The wetland complex located in the south central portion of the site will allow for the preservation of this natural area. (11) High quality of design compatible with surrounding land uses, including both existing and planned. The proposed design will be to scale with the adjacent Jeffers Pond Development to the south. PRELIMINARY PLAT: The memorandum from the City Engineering Department (attached) lists several revisions required to the preliminary plat. Most of these issues can be addressed at the final plat stage. However, no grading will be allowed until all of the grading and hydrologic issues have been addressed. CONCLUSION: The Planning Commission and staff recommended approval of the preliminary PUD plan and the preliminary plat, subject to the following conditions. 1. The developer shall submit a Final Plat application within twelve (12) months of the Preliminary Plat approvaL 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report.doc Page 9 FISCAL IMPACT: ALTERNATIVES: RECOMMENDED MOTION: 2. At the time of Final Planned Unit Development submittal, the developer shall submit all necessary details as indicated in the November 14, 2005 staff report and as detailed in the City Code. 3. The Final Planned Unit Development submittal shall conform to the uses and structural elements approved as part of the Preliminary Planned Unit Development. 4. The final Planned Unit Development submittal shall address all issues detailed in the November 14, 2005 Engineering Department memo (attached). 5. The overall theme must be refined and incorporated into the final plans. Budget Impact: There is no budget impact as a result of this action. Approval of the project will facilitate the development of the area and increase the City tax base. The City Council has three alternatives: 1. Adopt an ordinance amending the Zoning Map to designate the subject property as PUD, adopt a resolution approving the PUD Preliminary Plan subject to the listed conditions, and adopt a resolution approving the Preliminary Plat for this development subject to the listed conditions, with the finding that the preliminary plat is consistent with the intent and purpose of the Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances. 2. Deny ordinance amendment, the PUD Preliminary Plan, and the Preliminary Plat on the basis they are inconsistent with the purpose and intent of the Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances and/or the Comprehensive Plan. In this case, the Council should direct the staff to prepare a resolution with findings of fact based in the record for the denial of these requests. 3. Defer consideration of this item and provide staffwith specific direction. The staff recommends Alternative #1. This action requires the following motions: 1. A motion and second adopting an ordinance approving an amendment to the Zoning Map to designate the subject property A (Agricultural) and R-4 (High Density Residential) to PUD (Planned Unit Development). 2. A motion and second adopting a resolution approving a Planned Unit Development Preliminary Plan to be known as Shepherd's Path subject to the listed conditions; 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 10 3. A motion and second adopting a resolution approving a Preliminary Plat t be known as Shepherd's Path, subject to the . s ed condi . ns. 1 REVIEWED BY: 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\cc report. doc Page 11 \ 400 I o LOCATION MAP SHEPHERDS PATH CAMPUS McKenna Rd @ ~ ~8 ~ ~ ~'1;@ ~ 400 800 Feet I N + t.:gll~eH ~...~ .wa~l~ ih~ls Br!i; ~~H ~; ll~ 1 !it !~if~1 ~ll t"'~.lil ! p1!t~ !.ll.'-~I~d' - !iiSf'g 115,l!1! Ui~ -g~ .~!15il~ ~~~ r~t!hH~ 1w s.lljo -~ ~~ ~hsh .ij'. '8" 0> c c o N +'" C (J) s.... s.... ~ U .r::. +'" ro Cl. _en "C s.... (J) .r::. 0- (J) .r::. en .t- L CI: :Ii ~ z - z o N i ~ 'B ~ 3: (.) .!! li~. 1110 IIIIU~~ I i s o 10 UI 0 Q) 0 2 N ~ 16200 Eagle Creek Avenue S.E. Prior Lake, MN 55372-1714 CITY OF PRIOR LAKE ORDINANCE NO. OS-XX AN ORDINANCE AMENDING SECTION 1101.700 OF PRIOR LAKE CITY CODE AND THE OFFICIAL ZONING MAP FOR THE CITY OF PRIOR LAKE MOTION BY: SECOND BY: The City Council of the City of Prior Lake does hereby ordain: 1. The Prior Lake Zoning Map, referred to in Prior Lake City Code Section 1101.700, is hereby amended to change the zoning classification of the following legally described property from A (Agricultural) and R-4 (High Density Residential to PUD (Planned Unit Development). LEGAL DESCRIPTION: The Southwest Quarter of the Southeast Quarter and the East one-half of the Southeast Quarter of the Southwest Quarter of Section 22, Township 115, Range 22, Scott County, Minnesota. Excepting from the above property the following: EXCEPTION NO. 1: The North 4.00 rods of the East one-half of the Southeast Quarter of the Southwest Quarter of said Section 22. EXCEPTION NO.2: The North 4.00 rods of the West 2.00 rods of the Southwest Quarter of the Southwest Quarter of said Section 22. AND That part of the Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter lying West of the East one- quarter of said Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter, Section 22, Township 115, Range 22, Scott County, Minnesota. Excepting therefrom the following described property: That part of the Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter of Section 22, Township 115, Range 22, Scott County, Minnesota, lying West of the East of one-forth of the Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter and east of the following described line: Beginning at a point on the South line of said Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter distant 487.82 feet West of the southeast corner thereof; thence north parallel with the east line of said Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter to the intersection with the north line of said Southeast Quarter of the Southeast Quarter and there terminating. Scott County, Minnesota. This ordinance shall become effective from and after its passage and publication. Passed by the City Council of the City of Prior Lake this 5th day of December, 2005. J:\05 files\05 puds\shepherd's path\rezoning ord05xx.doc www.cityofpriorlake.com Page 1 Phone 952.447.4230 / Fax 952.447.4245 ATTEST: City Manager Mayor Published in the Prior Lake American on the _day of December, 2005. Drafted By: Prior Lake Planning Department 17073 Adelmann Street Prior Lake, MN 55372 1:\05 files\05 puds\shepherd's path\rezoning ord05xx.doc Page 2 16200 Eagle Creek Avenue S.E. Prior Lake, MN 55372-1714 RESOLUTION OS.XX RESOLUTION OF THE PRIOR LAKE CITY COUNCIL APPROVING THE PRELIMINARY PLAT OF "SHEPHERD'S PATH" SUBJECT TO THE CONDITIONS OUTLINED HEREIN. WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: MOTION BY: SECOND BY: The Prior Lake Planning Commission conducted a public hearing on November 14, 2005 to consider an application from Shepherd's Path Senior Housing, Inc. , for the preliminary plat of Shepherd's Path; and The Planning Commission further considered this matter at their meeting on November 28,2005; and Notice of the public hearing on said preliminary plat has been duly published and posted in accordance with the applicable Minnesota Statutes and Prior Lake Ordinances; and All persons interested in this issue were afforded the opportunity to present their views and objections related to the preliminary plat of Shepherd's Path for the record at the Planning Commission hearing; and The Planning Commission and City Council have reviewed the preliminary plat according to the applicable provisions of the Prior Lake Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances and found said preliminary plat to be consistent with the provisions of said ordinances; and The Prior Lake City Council considered an application for preliminary plat approval of Shepherd's Path on December 5, 2005; and The City Council finds the preliminary plat of Shepherd's Path to be consistent with the provisions of the Zoning and Subdivision Ordinance, subject to the listed conditions. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT HEREBY RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PRIOR LAKE, MINNESOTA: A. The above recitals are incorporated herein as if fully set forth. B. The preliminary plat of Shepherd's Path is approved subject to the following conditions: 1) Address the engineering issues listed in the memorandum from Assistant City Engineer Larry Poppler dated November 14, 2005. All grading and storm water issues must be addressed prior to any grading on the site. 2) The developer shall submit a Final Plat application within twelve (12) months of the Preliminary Plat approval. 3) At the time of Final Planned Unit Development submittal, the developer shall submit all necessary details as indicated in the November 14,2005 staff report and as detailed in the City Code. 4) The Final Planned Unit Development submittal shall conform to the uses and structural elements approved as part of the Preliminary Planned Unit Development. 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\platres.doc www.cityofpriorlake.com Page 1 Phone 952.447.4230 / Fax 952.447.4245 5) The overall theme must be refined and incorporated into the final plans. 6) All Scott County Highway Department issues must be addressed with the final plans. Passed and adopted this 5th day of December, 2005. YES NO Hauaen Haugen Fleming Fleming LeMair LeMair Petersen Petersen Zieska Zieska {Seal} Frank Boyles, City Manager 1:\05 files\05 subdivision\05 prelim plat\shepherd's path campus\platres.doc Page 2 16200 Eagle Creek Avenue S.E. Prior Lake, MN 55372-1714 RESOLUTION OS.XX RESOLUTION OF THE PRIOR LAKE CITY COUNCIL APPROVING A PLANNED UNIT DEVELOPMENT TO BE KNOWN AS "SHEPHERD'S PATH", WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: WHEREAS: MOTION BY: SECOND BY: The Prior Lake Planning Commission conducted a public hearing on November 14, 2005 to consider an application from Shepherd's Path Senior Housing, Inc. , for the Planned Unit Development of Shepherd's Path; and The Planning Commission further considered this matter at their meeting on November 28, 2005; and Notice of the public hearing on said Planned Unit Development has been duly published and posted in accordance with the applicable Minnesota Statutes and Prior Lake Ordinances; and All persons interested in this issue were afforded the opportunity to present their views and objections related to the Planned Unit Development of Shepherd's Path for the record at the Planning Commission hearing; and The Planning Commission and City Council have reviewed the Planned Unit Development according to the applicable provisions of the Prior Lake Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances and found said Planned Unit Development to be consistent with the provisions of said ordinances; and The Prior Lake City Council considered an application for Planned Unit Development approval of Shepherd's Path on December 5, 2005; and The City Council finds the Planned Unit Development of Shepherd's Path to be consistent with the provisions of the Zoning and Subdivision Ordinance, subject to the listed conditions. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT HEREBY RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PRIOR LAKE, MINNESOTA: A. The above recitals are incorporated herein as if fully set forth. B. The Planned Unit Development of Shepherd's Path is approved subject to the following conditions: 1) Address the engineering issues listed in the memorandum from Assistant City Engineer Larry Poppler dated November 14,2005. All grading and storm water issues must be addressed prior to any grading on the site. 2) The developer shall submit a Final Plat application within twelve (12) months of the Preliminary Plat approval. 3) At the time of Final Planned Unit Development submittal, the developer shall submit all necessary details as indicated in the November 14,2005 staff report and as detailed in the City Code. 1:\05 files\05 puds\shepherd's path\pud res.doc Page 1 www.cityofpriorlake.com Phone 952.447.4230 / Fax 952.447.4245 4) The Final Planned Unit Development submittal shall conform to the uses and structural elements approved as part of the Preliminary Planned Unit Development. 5) The overall theme must be refined and incorporated into the final plans. 6) All Scott County Highway Department issues must be addressed with the final plans. Passed and adopted this 5th day of December, 2005. YES NO Hauqen Haugen Fleminq Fleminq LeMair LeMair Petersen Petersen Zieska Zieska {Seal} Frank Boyles, City Manager 1:\05 files\05 puds\shepherd's path\pud res.doc Page 2 DATE: November 14, 2005 TO: Jane Kansier, Planning Director FROM: Larry Poppler, Assistant City Engineer CC: Steve Albrecht, Public Works Director/City Engineer RE: Shepherd's Path (City Project #05-116) The Engineering Department has reviewed the site plan dated November 7th for the subject project and we have the following comments: General 1. Show the City project # 05-116 on all plan sheets. 2. The final plans should follow the requirements of the Public Works Design Manual. 3. Plans are difficult to read, provide differing line types and weights. It may be easier to read if the grading plan and utility plans were separate sheets. Provide legend showing all line types and hatch used. 4. Before beginning work, the developer shall obtain all required regulatory agency permits and approvals, including those from the PLSL Watershed District, NPDES, and Scott County. 5. Show all existing and proposed property lines and easements on the grading and utility plans. Gradina Plan 1. Provide top and bottom elevations for all retaining walls. Walls exceeding 4 feet shall be designed by an engineer, include a fence, and must have a building permit. 2. The slopes of maintained areas must not be greater than 4: 1. 3. Show wetland buffer and buffer signage locations on the grading plans. Buffer strips shall be a minimum of 20 feet wide with an average width of 30 feet measured from the ordinary high water level. 4. Provide existing and proposed NWL, HWL, and OHWL for all waterbodies. 5. Provide contact information for the person responsible for the erosion control on the project. L:\05 FILES\05 SUBDIVISION\05 PRELIM PLA1\shepherd's path campus\Eng. review II0805.DOC 6. The erosion control measures shall be installed and inspected prior to any site grading. All trees to be saved must be protected by silt fence or construction fencing around the drip line of the tree to protect the root system. This fencing must be installed prior to any grading on the site. 7. Add note to state that all silt fence must be installed by the contractor and inspected by the City prior to any site work. 8. Easements are required for all grading beyond property limits. 9. Show emergency overflow for all low points and waterbodies. Show elevation of high points along emergency overflow routes. 10. Provide existing contours 200 feet beyond property boundaries, in particular the eastern property boundary. 11. Grades are shown converging on the west pond outlet structure. Please provide additional detail in this area. Hydroloay and Storm Sewer 1. Hydrological Model does not reflect current site hydrology, an updated model is required. A comprehensive review of the hydrology will be performed when the revised hydrological model is provided. 2. Provide Rational Method calculations for all storm sewer. 3. Dikes used to create rate control ponds or infiltration basins must at maximum use 4: 1 slopes and measure 10' wide at top. At minimum, a clay core should be designed in consideration of groundwater flow. If head difference between NWL of pond and downstream land exceeds 3 feet, soils data will be required in the area and dike design must address maintenance of pond water level and dike stability. 4. Ponds and infiltration areas down stream of rate control ponds must be designed to safely pass the 100-year storm event. Provide Dr. Walker method calculations for all ponds. Utility Plan 1. Final utility plan will be reviewed upon submittal of plans and profile sheets. 2. CB-2 and CB-27 shall be environmental manholes with a 3' sump. 3. Verify that all sanitary and storm sewer manholes are located outside the wheelpaths. Change storm manholes to catch basins if needed. 4. Provide additional detail where proposed sanitary manhole will be constructed on existing pipe. Additional notes should be added to the plans regarding City standards. 5. Gate valves shall be located 5' from watermain connections. 6. Hydrant spacing shall be 300 feet maximum for commercial developments. L:\05 FILES\05 SUBDIVISION\05 PRELIM PLAT\shepherd's path campus\Eng. review 110805.DOC 2 Project Manager Kermit Mahlum, Shepherd of the Lake Lutheran Church for Shepherd's Path, pointed out the attending group was available for comments including the project's engineers, architects, and housing partners. Ringstad questioned what the build-out timing phase would be. Mahlum felt it would be a 3 to 4 year total build-out. Mahlum also briefly touched on the nursing home and YMCA project time lines. Billington questioned how the Church and 50lC3 Corporation (nonprofit) were going to work. Mahlum explained the senior housing is a partnership joint venture with Presbyterian Homes (a profitable business). The Church is a 50-50 partner with Presbyterian Homes in this senior venture. That will be a separate organization in itself and separate from the Church. Billington questioned if there was any thought on foot or pedestrian traffic connecting between the Jeffers Pond and concept plan on County Roads 42 & 18. Mahlum said they met with the estate representative for the Jeffers Pond development a few years ago to discuss how they could work the projects together. There was a lot of talk of a possible foot bridge and encourage to intermingle as much as possible. Walking paths will connect. Billington suggested continued talks on pedestrian traffic and safety between the parties. Mahlum indicated he was aware of the situation. Lemke asked to hear a little more on the community center and the youth center projects. Dan Saad of Safe Haven distributed updated building plans and spoke on the existing Safe Haven projects. Saad summarized the building uses and the youth program. Anyone in the community will be able to access their livable training program. Billington questioned Saad on how the neighbors would handle student residents with negative behavior. Saad explained their regulations and are in contact with the neighbors and community (schools and police). Safe Haven has 4 exiting homes and they have really never had a problem. They want everyone to feel welcome and safe in their building. There were no other comments and the public hearing closed at 7: 12 p.m. Comments from the Commissioners: MOTION BY RINGSTAD, SECOND BY BILLINGTON, TO CONTINUE DISCUSSIONS ON THIS MATTER TO NOVEMBER 28, 2005. Vote taken indicated ayes by all. MOTION CARRIED. November 28, 2005 Planning Commission Meeting Old Business: A. EP 05-116 & 117 Shepherd's Path Senior Housing, Inc. have submitted a preliminary plat and planned unit development application for a mix of senior housing, a YMCA facility, youth center, medical office/clinic, bank, park area, trails, and companion uses to the existing worship facility (meeting areas, day care, retreat center, etc) on the 71.2 acre site. Planning Coordinator Danette Moore presented the planning report dated November 28, 2005, on file in the office of the City Planning Department. The Planning Commission conducted a public hearing on this item on November 14, 2005. Following the close of the public hearing, the Commission discussed the project and continued the item to the November 28, 2005 meeting to allow the following: . Submittal of updated hydrology calculations. . Complete review and comments by the Engineering Department. . Staff recommendations. On Thursday, November 17, 2005, the staffreceived additional information addressing the items listed above and offers the following comments/conditions: 1. The developer shall submit a Pinal Plat application within twelve (12) months of the Preliminary Plat approval. 2. At the time of Final Planned Unit Development submittal, the developer shall submit all necessary details as indicated in the November 14,2005 staff report and as detailed in the City Code. 3. The Pinal Planned Unit Development submittal shall conform to the uses and structural elements approved as part of the Preliminary Planned Unit Development. 4. Address the following Engineering issues: General a) Show the City project # 05-116 on all plan sheets. b) The final plans should follow the requirements of the Public Works Design Manual. c) Plans are difficult to read, provide differing line types and weights. It may be easier to read if the grading plan and utility plans were separate sheets. Provide legend showing all line types and hatch used. d) Before beginning work, the developer shall obtain all required regulatory agency permits and approvals, including those from the PLSL Watershed District, NPDES, and Scott County. e) Show all existing and proposed property lines and easements on the grading and utility plans. Grading Plan a) Provide top and bottom elevations for all retaining walls. Walls exceeding 4 feet shall be designed by an engineer, include a fence, and must have a building permit. b) The slopes of maintained areas must not be greater than 4: 1. c) Show wetland buffer and buffer signage locations on the grading plans. Buffer strips shall be a minimum of 20 feet wide with an average width of 30 feet measured from the ordinary high water level. d) Provide existing and proposed NWL, HWL, and OHWL for all waterbodies. e) Provide contact information for the person responsible for the erosion control on the project. 1) The erosion control measures shall be installed and inspected prior to any site grading. All trees to be saved must be protected by silt fence or construction fencing around the drip line of the tree to protect the root system. This fencing must be installed prior to any grading on the site. g) Add note to state that all silt fence must be installed by the contractor and inspected by the City prior to any site work. h) Easements are required for all grading beyond property limits. i) Show emergency overflow for all low points and waterbodies. Show elevation of high points along emergency overflow routes. j) Provide existing contours 200 feet beyond property boundaries, in particular the eastern property boundary. k) Grades are shown converging on the west pond outlet structure. Please provide additional detail in this area. Hydrology and Storm Sewer a) Hydrological Model does not reflect current site hydrology, an updated model is required. A comprehensive review of the hydrology will be performed when the revised hydrological model is provided. b) Provide Rational Method calculations for all storm sewer. c) Dikes used to create rate control ponds or infiltration basins must at maximum use 4: 1 slopes and measure 10' wide at top. At minimum, a clay core should be designed in consideration of groundwater flow. If head difference between NWL of pond and downstream land exceeds 3 feet, soils data will be required in the area and dike design must address maintenance of pond water level and dike stability. d) Ponds and infiltration areas down stream of rate control ponds must be designed to safely pass the 100-year storm event. Provide Dr. Walker method calculations for all ponds. Utility Plan a) Final utility plan will be reviewed upon submittal of plans and profile sheets. b) CB-2 and CB-27 shall be environmental manholes with a 3' sump. c) Verify that all sanitary and storm sewer manholes are located outside the wheelpaths. Change storm manholes to catch basins if needed. d) Provide additional detail where proposed sanitary manhole will be constructed on existing pipe. Additional notes should be added to the plans regarding City standards. e) Gate valves shall be located 5' from watermain connections. f) Hydrant spacing shall be 300 feet maximum for commercial developments. g) On new McKenna Road, show proposed watermain east of the sanitary sewer and storm sewer on the west side. The watermain connection should be east of the SMSC interconnect at the north intersection. h) Show watermain from the existing McKenna to the east for the proposed roadway along the northern boundary Streets a) McKenna Road shall have a 9 ton design and meet MNDOT 30 MPH design. b) Per the minimum street width requirements, the proposed existing McKenna should be shown as a 32 foot wide curbed street. The intersection from the north- south portion and the east-west portion should be a tee intersection with stop sIgns. c) Per the minimum street width requirements, the proposed east-west roadway off of existing McKenna should be a 32 foot wide street. d) The SMSC must provide right of way for the new McKenna roadway. The City is working with the SMSC on this right of way issue. Staff recommended approval of the Preliminary Plat and PUD subject to the above conditions. Perez requested staff to point out the benefits of the Planned Unit Development. Moore responded the open space and preservation as well as a park and trail system. The plan provides lifestyle housing. The density is 6.5% units per acre density which is consistent with the Comp Plan. Billington mentioned traffic and pedestrian access and crosswalks. Moore responded it would be taken under consideration. Comments from the Commissioners: Ringstad: Looks like a tremendous project for the City with minimal impact on the wetlands. It is what we are looking for in a PUD. Support. Billington: Is this going to be managed by a 501 C3 owned and managed by the same organization. Kermit Mahlum with Shepherd of the Lake responded the senior housing will be a separate venture and joint venture with Prystebtian and Church. Stamson: Questioned the soccer dome. Mahlum responded it would be privately owned. The case of the YMCA and Safe Haven will have long term leases which would go back to the Church at the end of the lease. The bank and medical clinic service type businesses would be land would be sold. Mahlum also noted the under-road walkway would be in excess of $100,000. ~6 a z 2~ I~ ... ..... 1Ii9 "11I ..it III a ~ ~ ... ~-! lu. i 2~ ~~~ :::: .:: ;:;i:j ~o:: . J: ~ 0.;; Vi C a:: w J: Q. W J: Vi z :5 Q. I- Z w :::E Q. o -' w > w o -' ~ W Z W (!) ..a ell cOi "1~ ~N ...... ..:..+. i+ el.. ~l:: ..!i ...z... ~i!e ~~~ r\ "I) IV ~! <l)t b; ~, w' It !L~ w~ I; <I) MEMORANDUM Re: Shepherd's Path Senior Housing Subject: PUD Narrative To: Danette Moore, Planning Coordinator City of Prior Lake From: Ward Isaacson, AlA Date: October 25, 2005 Shepherds Path PUD Overview "The Journey of Generations" is the phrase that the development team has used to best describe the vision of the Shepherd's Path project - an innovative concept that people of all generations can be integrated into a unified faith-based campus. The central theme of "The Path" represents a series of multi-purpose spaces interlinked along a seamless path of travel. The Shepherd's Path development seeks to achieve continuity as a central theme between the spiritual mission and the built and social environments - meant to enrich the lives of all Prior Lake residents and visitors that live, work, worship, or recreate in the development. The site PUD concept plan represents how all buildings are organized around "the Path". The plan is based on the following design and planning concepts: 1. A variety of land uses including youth, spiritual, educational, commercial, senior housing, and parks will promote active lifestyles and interaction between all ages and income levels. 2. Provide a continuum of housing and support to support people throughout their lives and offer alternative housing options to age in place as their health, mobility, or economic status changes. 3. Create hundreds of new jobs. 4. Promote new businesses including: daycare, healthcare, financial, education, recreational, youth programs, fitness and vocational opportunities. 5. Preserve all existing delineated wetlands on site. 6. Oriented buildings toward the north end of the site to best preserve the existing landscape and topography and to take maximum advantage of views to and from the campus. 7. Buffer the development from County Road 42 with the large expanse of existing wetlands in the former DNR property. 8. Enhance the open space with public parks, park structures, bridge, bike & walking paths. A total of approximately 30 of the 72 acres are planned as recreational open space for the public and required dedications are far surpassed. 9. Bike and walking paths will be designed to link site to the city's planned trail system and to local bus stops. 10. Minimize impervious surface by design of effective road / utility configuration and residential underground parking. POPE ASSOCIATES 11. Existing trees which line the site will be preserved to buffer the site edges. Since wetland areas are preserved and most all building occurs in existing agricultural land, there is minimal impact to the existing trees which are considered significant. 12. Locate lower height nearer the site boundaries with the higher structures internalized to avoid the impact to surrounding neighbors. 13. New McKenna Road is planned and a road easement for future extension of McKenna Road is shown to the east is shown, to comply with the transportation patterns in the city's long term comprehensive plan. 14. Buildings will be clad with durable, natural materials, simple and consistent detailing and small scale massing elements to convey a residential character. Structures will have minimum of 15% stone and/or rock faced block with natural tones of the landscape. The remainder will be hard surface material such as stucco or cement board siding. Roofing on the residential structures will be a profile shingle colored to complement the stone. Exterior building materials and colors throughout the PUD will remain consistent, compatible, and complimentary. 15. Site lighting, site furniture, signage, park structures, and landscaping throughout PUD will share a common architectural vocabulary to unify the various uses on the site. Shepherds Path Senior Campus Overview Shepherds Path Senior Campus is designed to be a gracious, full-service, high quality residential environment and a comprehensive community resource for seniors. The site provides a rural, relaxed ambiance for this thoroughly modern community. This style of older adult housing reflects a growing evolution from the congregate rental units of the 1980s, to a complete continuum of products designed to accommodate the lifestyle needs of extremely diverse market segments: from younger active older adults who may simply desire to live among peers and be relieved of some of the daily tasks of home ownership, to very frail older adults in need of wide range of support and services. SERVICES The main building on the Shepherds Path Senior Campus will have a "Town Centre" which will provide services that may be used by Shepherd's Path's residents and members of the surrounding communities as well. The Town Centre will have features that allow it to be a gathering place, a place to shop, an information center, a place to eat, and a place to relax with friends. There will be a "Path" of shops, a bank, a library, a cafe, an auditorium, classrooms, a chapel, and a beauty shop. There also will be a medical fitness center with a therapeutic pool, exercise equipment, therapy services, and trained staff to support and assist clients in exercise routines. TOWN CENTRE The Town Centre will serve as the heart of the Shepherds Path Senior Campus community. Its many amenities will bring to the residents, as well as the Prior Lake community, comprehensive services to provide a practical and valuable facility for seniors from the area. The design of the Town Centre will reinforce the philosophy of the "community path" interconnecting the senior housing, church and future YMCA. Features of the Town Centre include: · Chapel - a beautifully appointed 50-seat chapel will be available to residents and to the community. There will be regularly scheduled ecumenical services under the direction of Shepherds Path Senior Campus chaplain as well as special services that will focus on specific denominations under the direction of area clergy. . Community Room - this large room will be adjacent and expandable to the Chapel space and be available for a variety of meetings for all residents and for the entire community. The community center will be able to seat 100 people for meetings and arranged to serve approximately 75 at a sit- down dinner. . The Market - basic grocery items, pharmacy pick-up, greeting cards, dry cleaning pick-up will offer a convenient way for residents to do casual shopping every day. . Library - containing books, newspapers, current periodicals, access to the Internet, and comfortable sitting areas for those who would like to spend time in this relaxing resource room which will be supported by the Prior Lake Public Library. . Bank - banking services will be provided on a regularly scheduled basis. . Beauty/Barber Shop - a full-service beauty shop and barbershop will be in operation at scheduled times throughout the week. Salon services for hair, as well as manicures and pedicures. . The Cafe - a pleasant sunny cafe will provide special casual dining for the residents and members of the community as well. Daily features will accompany the soups, salads, and freshly made sandwiches that will be available each day. Special seating areas will draw local people for our early morning coffee to accompany their freshly baked pastry, a lunch with friends or our afternoon ice cream sundaes for socialization with friends and family. At appropriate times of the year, dining will also be available on the outdoor patio. . Lounge - a place for residents and their guests as they gather to socialize before mealtime. . Medical Fitness Center - a Medical Fitness Center specifically focused on the senior population. The large therapeutic pool will be available for classes, individual therapeutic swim, and exercise. The center will provide a full range of aquatic and land exercise including cardiac and strength training fitness equipment, therapy and socialization opportunities for Shepherds Path Senior Campus residents as well as senior community members. . Technology Center - the Learning Center at Shepherds Path Senior Campus strives to unravel the mystery of the latest technology for our residents as well as people throughout the surrounding community. Classes in basic computer skills, e-mail, on-line banking, and the Internet will educate and support seniors who are interested in accessing today's evolving technology. FUTURE SKILLED NURSING CARE The current site can accommodate the proposed expansion, while preserving the natural beauty and integrity of the land as open space. The 80 unit care center is designed to be linked to the main building that currently includes the Town Center, the Commons assisted living building and the independent living building. For residents of these buildings who need nursing care, the location will allow them to remain easily connected with a spouse or friends who still live throughout the campus. The initial design is still in process, but it will have features similar to the care center PHS had currently built in Bloomington, including private resident rooms with private bathrooms, kitchenettes and sitting areas. The goal is to provide a living environment that is as "home-like" as possible, while meeting each resident's nursing and personal care needs. The residents will live in "neighborhoods" of four to 20 residents, each with a communal activity/dining room area that will serve as a focal point for social interaction at mealtimes and gatherings, and reducing the need for frail residents to journey down long hallways to access community activities. Additionally, there will be a number of lounge family rooms, physical and occupational therapy suites and recreational activity areas. To complete the continuum of care at Shepherd's Path and build a skilled care center, it is necessary to locate and purchase existing nursing home beds from areas of the state that have a surplus of beds. Then, Shepherds Path Senior Campus will go through the moratorium exception process with the State of Minnesota to request approval to replace the old beds by constructing a new, high quality care center. Presbyterian Homes is currently building a state-of-the-art care center on its Bloomington Campus that provided them with the experience of going through the exception process and new design standards, which should result in a streamlined process. In addition to this specialized experience securing a moratorium exception, PHS has extensive experience building and managing care centers. It built its first care center 27 years ago (1978) and has since grown one of the largest and most respected providers of older adult care and housing in the nation, serving nearly 7,500 older adults annually at 29 campuses in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. 11_1 II II . - - . z o ~ ~ ...J W :!: ~ o z --'~_._~----------_._,-_...~--~._.~,----,~.~_.._,-._,-~..^"_-~".<_"_.,_..,,. ,.._.,.. _" ~_ _..__'_..._A-'-_. B ~n (L= o ((11 0:, 0:;:- WO If o...~ W5 I~ tJ) ..c +-' C"V 0 a..~ o (J) ~ .. N '"C ~ ~ ~ Q)~ ..c:.: c..~ I- Q) .:: ~..c :s ~lf) ~ +~ IJ ~n 0..:= c (/)~ b~ ~- WO I> (L w I (/) ..c +-' ro 0.. (/) ... 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" . -: "",~.:. ; ,~ David Linner Architects ____I, --- -IIQI- ,...: -..- l ~ ~ ): l ~ ~ ~ f ~ I ~'? 9cn4 ~p~ WbH1'" H)tWJZC... 11/4/t't; Pole top luminaires with round symmetrical light distribution from a diffused source Housing: Two interlocking die cast aluminum housings. Heavy gauge .080" spun aluminum shade with rolled edge, finished white inside. Arm/fitter: Arm is integrally die cast into lower luminaire housing and bolted into one piece cast aluminum fitter/pole extension with integral slip fitter. Fitter slip fits a 3" 0.0. pole top and is secured by six (6) socket head stainless steel set screws threaded into stainless steel inserts. Enclosure: Hand blown seamless three-ply opal glass with screw neck and minimum 75% transmission, fully gasketed for weather tight operation using a high temperature silicone rubber O-ring Electrical: Lampholders are medium base porcelain with nickel plated copper screw shell supplied with 2000C high temperature leads, rated 4KV. Ballasts are located in the base of the selected BEGA pole and are available in 120V or 277V, HPF - specify. Finish: These luminaires are available in five standard BEGA colors: Black (BLK); White (WHT); Bronze (BRZ); Silver (SLV); Eurocoat'" (URO). To specify, add appropriate suffix to catalog number. For complete description of BEGA finishing process, refer to technical information section at end of catalog. Custom colors supplied on special order. U.L. listed, suitable for wet locations. Protection class: IP 44. ~ ~ ~ 'Ii ! II '--' Pole top luminaires with reinforced spreader arm and pole extension. Slip fits any 3" OD. pole top. Three-ply opal glass with screw neck. Specify coated lamps for optimum performance. Optional opal polyethylene plastic diffuser available - suffix POC. U.L. listed, suitable for wet locations. IP 44. Color: Standard BEGA finishes with inside of reflector painted white. Ballast located in 5" pole base. c B /I~ , h \ -(- E~r/-e "'-v [ __l,;\__ A 97015 Lamp 1 50W E-17 HPS A c B Lumen 4000 Single 17% 24% 47% Type: BEGA Product #: Project: Voltage: Color: Options: Modified: BEGAlUS 1000 BEGA Way, Carpinteria, CA 93013 [P] 805,684.0533 [F) 805.684.6682 @Copyright BEGA/US 2005 updated 4/05 ~-w;..~ Huntco Supply - Commercial Bicycle Rack Sales ~t74? P~TH Page 1 of 1 Home Bike Racks The gracefully curved back of this Bike LOc;kers & Pods Benches TrCl.So/AsO...Rec;eptClGles BQUClrds VVoClt'$NeW A09LitHLintG9 Contact it the sophisticated appearance of a bench from our Northwest Series gives bygone era. But it's strong! Made of schedule 40 all steel construction, using rectangular tubes and flat bars, the Nehalem can take extreme weather and usage. .. Available Finishes Powder Coat Finish Thermoplastic Coating Stainless Steel Wenatchee .. CAD Drawings .. 3 Pa rt S ec Complimentary Products Sherwood Quinault 12-5'! I ,. r --"":li.:"..:.-....,.,J 2"" TOLL FREE: 1.800.547.5909 EMAIL: sales@huntco.com NOV 7 2005 http://huntco.comlmercantool/mtool.pl ?command=productpage _show &product=33 11/3/2005 Huntco Supply - Commercial Bicycle Rack Sales ~~~ Page 1 of3 'Rzc,~ ~ ~ HOrDE:!l3ikE:!RClGkS l3ikE:!l,PGkE:!fSIl. Pod::; 13E:!n..G.O~S IfClso/Aso...R~.GE:!.p!ClGIE:!S I3QU?rds YVoClJ'$NE:!\V AtJol,ltHI.JDtGO Cpn!?Gt Wenatchee Trash Huntco's Trash and Ash Receptacles will enhance any outdoor public space and are also designed to complement our Northwest Series benches. All are made of indestructible, welded steel bars, slats or perforated steel panels and are available in a wide selection of finishes. Custom laser cutting of logos or insignia makes a trash receptacle that is specific to its location. The Wenatchee Trash Receptacle This receptacle provides an attractive solution to trash and litter in public places. It coordinates perfectly with all of the benches in Huntco's traditionally designed Northwest Series. The upper sides of the Wenatchee are flared and taper to a barrel that is 31" high and contains a removable 32 gallon capacity hard plastic liner. The Wenatchee is available with a flat top, dome top and ash/dome top. The Wenatchee Trash Receptacle With Door This receptacle provides an attractive solution to trash and litter in public places. It coordinates perfectly with all of the benches in Huntco's traditionally designed Northwest Series. The upper sides of the Wenatchee are flared and taper to a barrel that is 31" high. It has a convenient full-length door for easy access to the removable 32 gallon capacity hard plastic liner. The Wenatchee is available with a flat top, dome top and ash/dome top. The Wenatchee Ash Urn This stand-alone ash urn coordinates perfectly with all of the site furnishings in Huntco's traditionally designed Northwest Series. Its flared design is classic and elegant and features strong, all- steel welded construction and a spun aluminum ash pan. .. CAD Drawings NOV ~,' 7 2005 http://huntco.comlmercantool/mtool. pI ?command=productpage _show &product=5 7 11/3/2005 'BUll , I ~ l8 \II~ ~; ~r'l 0 L · lil~ I ~ ~l '8 ~l ~ . fiol' ~j R. ilJil1 . ,I- wi I ~. ..........,.. -.........".. $1 ! i I II )-~ L ~ ~ If I I I I I +- TION NO. ,.-f,J'+I"F '46,.27 g IOJ.IiI -" ( mi ~~mn-~~'-'-,-,-,~; - -; ~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~,-,-,-,-,-,-,~;~r>' ;~ C= U-rri-:-!tl~ ~t:r:J::rl-iilliliii~ i ~----~ i i t~ I I I I I I I I I i,r : . '--------" L_~~~~~='~,r, -'I, r~~~~~~~:-i-l~~~~~~{f7 ,I .~ U I I II II I I I I I I I , I 1'lJ :~~ / ! ! ~= :r~~~~~~~!~~~~~~~f7 ( I Ir- Ullllllllllllltl'lJ ... i ~~ :r~~~~~~i-i~~~W7 :e::\ ~'(IIIIIIIIIIIIIV I~ I n III J IIIII t ~rl :t~ :H++H-\-H-Hi~,' 11-_ U 11111111111 v !~~ t' ~ L 0 T.<.\\ i~l ; -': !~= -'!~~ IL ~~~ i~i ~~ I '--l\ _..J.._ \ I l i ~~~~~__~~;_j! t I I JO r-----~---------FuTGRE-~----L--------l ! 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':;: ~=::z-: ~\<o~~ =--::..~.. .....1\<04 -~- ..1~........a'_R-4(......_'R_tIIIl)_.HlootI._1II PI.O(_I.\'oI\~I~A,.u...f_~~,..._tt..._ QoorIeyDllltrlcl_._1ocI 1......_" lw_clIt\fIoI. t.)!liIrwy__-...._$aItlc-l'c-.IrlIrIoS)'Mm. ~_~~__....SII.__','"- I ~ ~ w._,_m,""'IIhllo..lIII1I...~_1 ~""f>l._.I""'_.' ""'--_........""'_......1 ..............."..."_....._'-. -d.Z~= a.,.,,_K. ll.LS.......Ilot-....llolM _,.........'....looIr-,I. ZUO$ tI)V ~ 4 2005 - -- - U" TI.$ 11;$11II U, ~,t(,AT01If J L_ tJIE1IfER)'S PA 7H AlX1f1CIN fM()RLAKE, IINEBOrAJ Sunde __a.r-,..... UA:. - ~~._,. leld Research Inc. December 31, 2004 MEMORANDUM TO: Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners FROM: Jay Thompson Maxfield Research Inc. RE: Preliminary Demand Estimate for Senior Housing and Skilled Nursing Beds on the Shepherd's Path Site in Prior Lake, Minnesota Introduction/Purpose and Scope of Research This memorandum contains preliminary estimates of demand for independent, assisted living and memory care housing, as well as skilled nursing beds in Prior Lake, Minnesota. Maxfield Research Inc. calculated demand for senior housing and services based on the size of the local income/asset-qualified household base, estimates of the potential demand generated from outside the primary draw area and an inventory of existing and planned competitive senior housing units in the Prior Lake Market Area. The methodologies used to calculate demand in this memorandum are proprietary to Maxfield Research, but are consistent with methodologies used by analysts throughout the senior housing industry. It is important to note that the demand estimates and conclusions contained herein are preliminary, and are intended only to broadly assess the depth ofthe senior housing market in Prior Lake and to detennine whether additional senior product could be supported. The demand methodology does not take into account the desirability or appropriateness ofthe site, which may impact demand. A more thorough investigation of the unique characteristics of the Prior Lake Market Area, detailed in a Full Feasibility Study, could reveal more specific factors that might impact demand and appropriate market positioning. This memorandum begins by delineating the primary draw ("market") area for senior housing located in Prior Lake and presents an overview of the demographic and economic characteristics of the area's target market. It then defines the various types of senior housing available in to- day's market. Finally, it presents demand calculations for adult/few-service, congregate, assisted living, memory care, and subsidized/affordable senior housing and skilled nursing beds based on the amount and level of competitive product and our preliminary conclusions. 615 )st Avenue NE #400, Minneapolis, MN 55413 (6[2) 338-00[2 fax (612) 904-7979 www.maxfieldresearch.com Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 2 Market Area Definition Based on the location of the Site, transportation routes, man-made geographic boundaries, and our experience of the draw areas for senior housing, the primary draw (or "market") for this pre- liminary demand estimate is eastern Scott County, including the following cities: Prior Lake, Savage, Shakopee, Jordan, New Market, and Elko. The Map below illustrates the Prior Lake Market Area (highlighted in orange). Prior Lake Market Area We estimate that approximately two-thirds of the market support for senior housing in Prior Lake would come from this Market Area. The remaining portion ofthe demand (33% to 35%) will come from outside the defined Market Area. These individuals will include people cur- rently residing just outside the Market Area who have an orientation to the area (i.e., church, doctor, etc.); people who once resided in the area that desire to move back to be near friends and family, as well as parents of adult children living in the Market Area. Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends and Projections MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 3 Table I presents the older adult (age 55+) population and household age distribution for the Prior Lake Market Area as of 1990 and 2000, with projections to 2010. The 1990 and 2000 figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau, while the 2010 projections were made by Maxfield Research Inc., based on data provided by Claritas, Inc., a nationally recognized economic and demographic forecasting finn. The following are key points from Table I: . The Market Area's population age 55 and older grew by about 62% during the 1990s and is projected to grow by about 94% between 2000 and 2010. During this decade, the Market Area is projected to add 8,870 people age 55 and over. . The primary target market for age-restricted housing is seniors age 65 and over. The 65+ popu lation in the Market Area grew by 39% during the 1990s, to a total of 4,215 people in 2000. The 65+ population is projected to grow by 3,520 people this decade (+84%), to a to- tal population of7,735 people in 2010. . Older seniors (75+) are the primary market for senior housing with services. The Market Area is projected to add 993 older seniors this decade, for a growth rate of58%. This pro- jected gro\\1h will increase the Market Area's older senior population to 2,695 people in 2010. . By 2010, it is projected that the Market Area will contain 6,065 households age 55 to 64, 3,055 households age 65 to 74, and 1,795 households age 75+. Overall, this represents growth of91% from 2000. This strong senior household growth will create demand for addi- tional senior housing in the Market Area this decade. . Prior Lake is located in fast growing Scott County. The overall population and household base in the Market Area is projected to grow by 64% and 77%, respectively, this decade. This overall growth will create demand for senior housing, as some seniors from outside the area will move to be near their adult children. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 4 TABLE t OLDER ADULT (55+) HOUSEHOLD GROWTH PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 1990 to 2010 75+ Total 55+ Total 50,776 80,778 /32.550 30,002 59.1% 51,772 64.]% 55 to 64 ';;;6'S!"%~1lJ ."."~",." 75+ Total 55+ 775 3,587 3,017 99.0% "&~~".'.,1'\i{.jJ,.""''''..~.... ~;it',HY~'i;,'t~/l71' 68] 61.1% 5,200 91.0% Total /6,932 27.560 48.790 10,628 62.8% 2 L230 77.0% Sources: US Census Bureau; Claritas Inc.: Maxfield Research Inc. Senior Household Incomes Table 2 shows incomes for older adult and senior households in the Market Area in 2004 and 2009, based on estimates by Claritas, Inc. It is important to note that the data does not account for the asset base of senior households, nor supplemental income that a senior household could gain from the sale of a home or from family members. The data in Table 2 helps determine the demand for various senior housing products based on the size ofthe market at specific cost lev- els. This data is incorporated into demand calculations, which are presented later in the analysis. The frailer the senior, the greater the proportion of their income they are willing to spend on housing and services. Studies have shown that seniors are often willing to pay 40% or more of their incomes for market rate senior housing with little or no services, while income allocations of 50% to 65% are typical in a congregate setting and 80% to 90% or more for assisted living housing. It is important to note that the proceeds from the sales of their homes, as well as finan- cial assistance from their adult children and long-term care insurance are often used as supple- mental income in order to afford senior housing alternatives, especially in settings with a high degree of support services. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 5 It is also important to note that the size and growth projected for the caregiver/referral market (ages 55 to 64) is also an indicator of potential demand for assisted living beds that could be gen- erated from outside the immediate draw area. Research has shown that more affluent caregivers sometimes provide financial assistance to their elderly parents. Recent studies have shown that 16 percent of assisted living residents received some financial assistance from family members. Another seven percent of the senior population currently has long-term care insurance, which aids in expanding the income/asset-qualified senior base. Demand for independent market rate senior housing will typically come from households with incomes of $25,000 or more, while demand for affordable senior housing will typically come from households with incomes of $25,000 or less. Based on an income allocation of 40 percent, a household with an income of $25,000 could afford a monthly rent of$830. The following are key points from Table 2. . The Market Area's older adult households have substantially higher incomes than senior households who have reached retirement age. The 2004 estimate shows that the median in- come of households aged 55 to 64 was about $78,650, compared to $47,370 for households 65 to 74, and $25,560 for households age 75 and older. The higher incomes for younger sen- ior households (65 to 74) compared to older seniors (75 plus) is primarily due to the fact that a higher proportion of younger seniors are married, and are more likely to have two pensions or higher Social Security benefits; while some continue to work. . The target market for age-restricted independent senior housing is generally senior house- holds age 65 and older with incomes of at least $25,000. A small portion of older adults, ages 55 to 64, may also choose age-restricted housing, but overall, they usually account for only a small portion of the demand within any given market area. As of2004, we estimate 2,295 senior (65+) households in the Market Area have incomes of at least $25,000, account- ing for slightly two-thirds of all senior households. Among older seniors (75+), about 51 % have incomes of$25,000 or more, or approximately 710 seniors. . The median income of senior (65+) households is expected to increase by 20% percent over the next tive years, from $36,673 in 2004 to $44,009 in 2009. Thus, the percentage of sen- iors able to afford market rate senior housing will increase. Furthermore, there is a growing awareness and acceptance ofthe senior housing concept among seniors and their adult chil- dren, resulting in an increased demand for senior housing MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 6 TABLE 2 SENIOR HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA (Number of Housebolds) 2004 & 2009 65+ Total 55-64 65 -74 75+ No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet. Under $14.999 555 16.3 230 5.4 185 9.2 370 26.6 $15,000-$24,999 555 16.3 165 3.9 245 12.2 310 22.3 $25.000-$34,999 525 15.4 165 3.9 260 12.9 265 19.1 $35,000-$49.999 605 17.8 460 10.8 385 19.1 220 15.8 $50,000-$74,999 555 16.3 955 22.4 455 22.6 100 7.2 $75,000-$99.999 290 8.5 1,045 24.6 240 11.9 50 3.6 $100,000 or more 320 9.4 1.235 29.0 245 12.2 75 5.4 Total 3,405 100.0 4,255 100.0 2,015 100.0 1,390 100.0 No. Pet. No. No. Pet. No. Pet. Under $14,999 605 13.1 250 220 7.6 385 22.3 $15,000-$24,999 595 12.8 170 250 8.6 345 19.9 $25,000-$34,999 625 13.5 175 340 11.7 285 16.5 $35,000-$49,999 820 17.7 420 530 18.2 290 16.8 $50,000-$74,999 865 18.7 1.140 640 22.0 225 13.0 $75,000-$99,999 550 11.9 1,190 475 16.4 75 4.3 $100,000 or more 575 12.4 2,425 450 15.5 125 7.2 Total 4,635 100.0 5,770 2,905 100.0 1,730 100.0 Median Income $44.009 $90.336 $54,394 $29.736 Sources: Claritas. Inc. Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 7 Homeownership Rate/Housing Values In addition to their existing income sources, many senior households will be able to derive addi- tional income from the sales oftheir homes allowing many senior households with incomes of less than $25,000 to afford senior housing alternatives. For independent seniors, the proceeds are often invested and used to supplement their income. For frail seniors, their proceeds are of- ten used dollar-for-dollar to cover assisted living housing and services. Table 3 shows the pro- pensity for the Market Area's older adult households to own or rent their housing as of the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. . As of2000, 81 % of the Market Area's senior (65+) households owned their housing. This homeownership rate is slightly higher than for the State of Minnesota. which has a senior homeownership rate of 77%. . Homeownership rates normally decline the older the household. As of2000, 92% of house- holds age 55 to 64, 87% of households age 65 to 74 and 74% of households age 75 and older owned their housing. As seniors age, they may no longer desire, or be able to maintain their single-family homes. They may prefer to move to housing that offers them greater freedom from maintenance and/or offers them support services. Seniors typically begin to consider moving into senior housing alternatives in their early 70s. If alternatives exist, a portion of these households may move into apartment or independent senior housing, while the vast majority will remain in their homes. As these seniors age, however, they will increasingly look for housing that offers support services and assistance with personal care. . The number of senior (65+) homeowners in the Market area increased by 690 households be- tween 1990 and 2000 (47%), while senior renters increased by only 55 households (+12%). . The current high homeownership rate among senior households in the Market Area will al- low prospective residents to tap into significant equity reserves upon the sale of their homes that can be utilized for alternative housing. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 8 TABLE 3 OLDER ADULT HOUSEHOLD TENURE PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 1990 and 2000 Table 4, on the following page, presents resale data for homes in the Market Area built prior to 1985 over the last five years from the local Multiple Listing Service. This home resale data is useful in that it represents the amount of equity that seniors may be able to derive from the sale of their homes to supplement their income should they desire to move into alternative housing. To more accurately gauge the average value of seniors' homes, we include only the resales of homes over 20 years old since most seniors have lived in their current single-family homes for 20 years or more. . In 2004, the average resale price of homes built before 1985 in the Prior Lake Market Area was $248,239. This average resale price was 98% of the average list price, indicating a strong housing market in which many homes for sale would have multiple offers - allowing the seller to obtain their asking price. During the four-year period, the average length oftime a home remained on the market was about 40 days. This is still a relatively rapid turn around time for the sale of single-family, and also indicates a sellers market. Seniors in the Market Area should be able to sell their homes in a reasonably short period of time should they de- cide to move into senior housing. . Homeowners have been gaining equity in their homes through appreciation over the past four years. The average resale price in the Market Area has increased by an average of 7.5% each year between 2000 and 2004, or an average annual increase of about $ t 5,500. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 9 TABLE 4 RESALE OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES BUILT BEFORE 1985 PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 2000-2004 /lome Sales List Annual Sold Annual Avg. Year Sales Price Change Price Change DOM ~ - 2000 398 $189,423 - $185,967 - 41 2001 379 $200,574 5.9% $200,773 8.0% 41 2002 389 $217,082 8.2% $213,102 6.1% 43 2003 413 $237,254 9.3% $234,849 10.2% 41 2004 366 $252,774 6.5% $248,239 5.7% 43 Sources: Northstar MLS, Maxfield Research Inc. . Since a significant majority of senior homeowners will own their home outright, they will have access to a sizeable financial resource in the form of the equity they can realize from the sale of their home. While the interest earned on investing these funds can help offset the monthly costs associated with living in a senior housing facility, many seniors are also will- ing to begin spending-down assets in order to live in a facility that meets their needs. For example, a senior who owns their home outright for $252,700 would likely be able to derive approximately $233,000 after factoring in marketing/real estate commissions and moving costs. Should this equity be invested in an interest-bearing account with a four percent re- turn, it would produce an income of$9,320 annually (or $775 per month). Should a senior utilize the home proceeds on a dollar-for-dollar basis to support assisted living housing, the proceeds of this home would last roughly 93 months (almost 8 years) based on an average monthly assisted living fee of$2,500. Senior Housing Defined Senior housing is a concept that generally refers to the integrated delivery of housing and ser- vices to seniors. As Figure I below shows, senior housing embodies a wide variety of product types across the service-delivery spectrum, from independent apartments and/or townhomes with virtually no services on one end, to highly specialized, service-intensive, assisted living units or housing geared for persons with dementia-related illnesses (termed "memory care"). In general, independent senior housing attracts persons age 65 and over while assisted living attracts persons age 80 and older who need assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs), such as dressing, showering and grooming. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 3 I, 2004 Page 10 FIGURE 1 CONTINUUM OF HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR SENIORS Single-Family Home Fully Independent Lifestyle Fully or Higllly Dependent on Care I jl Senior Housing Product Type Source: Maxfield Research Inc. The least service-intensive buildings, also termed "active adult" or "adult" projects, are similar to general occupancy housing, offering virtually no support services or health care, but restrict- ing tenancy to those ages 55 and over. Congregate projects, the next level up on the service- delivery spectrum, offer support services such as meals and housekeeping, either included in the rent or a-la-carte so that residents can choose whether or not to pay for the services. The most service-intensive product types, assisted living and memory care, offer the highest level of services short of a nursing home. Typical services covered in the fee for both of these product types include all meals, housekeeping, linen changes, personal laundry , 24-hour emer- gency response, and a wide range of personal care and therapeutic services (either built into the fee or a-la-carte). Sponsorship by a nursing home, hospital or other health care organization is common for assisted living and memory care projects (as well as for many congregate/service- intensive projects). Supply of Senior Housing in the Prior Lake Market Area Table 5 shows an inventory of the existing senior housing developments in the Prior Lake Mar- ket Area. The developments have been divided into adult/few-services, congregate, assisted liv- ing and memory care projects. Some of the senior housing developments are located on cam- puses which incorporate more than one type of housing. For example. Keystone in Prior Lake offers congregate, assisted living, and memory care housing. Maxfield Research Inc. identified 16 senior projects in the Market Area, with a total of 645 units plus two skilled nursing care facilities. Following Table 5 are key points about these projects. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31. 2004 Page II TABLE 5 SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA December 2004 Year Project Locatio. 11 nits Price/Rent Range Opal ADtJL.l'lFtlV-SERVjCEs, . '...\r,........ ... .> .; i. ...... .,. , > . ',. Rental Northridge Court Shakopee 58 $680 - $745/1BR. $950!2BR 2004 Creekside Estates* Ptior Lake 54 $650 - $830/1 BR. $885 - $1 ,050/2BR 2003 The Hamilton Savage 42 $640 - $670/1 BR, $800 - $915/2BR 2000 River City Apartments Shakopee 52 $590 - $695/1 BR, $780 - $895/2BR 1998 Subtotal 206 Ownershio Eagle Point Shakopee 20 $180,000 - $200,000/2BR** 2004 Lake1ront Plaza Prior Lake 80 $137,900+/IBR, $18L900+/2BR** 2003 Riverplace Shakopee 19 $180,000 - $200,000/2BR** 2001 Canterbury Pointe Shakopee 39 $98,500 - $125,500/2BR** 1997 Subtotal 158 CONGREGATE ~;;;;.<-< ,. ...; '.". i.." .; X. ..e...... " '.. .'., .;' " ..,.".."...... Optional Services Keystone Prior Lake 60 $940-$1,135/1 BR, $1.280-$1,475/2BR 2003 Lvnn COUlt Savage 45 $555/ I BR, $705/2BR+D 1987 Subtotal 105 ASSIStED LIVING;!;;';;'..; . : .'" ....../. ......y . /./\..., ;;.'.;;....../ .'.", '.. .".,/. .... St. Gertrude's Shakopee 40 N/A 2005 Keystone Prior Lake 27 $2.495-$2,520/1 BR. $2,790/2BR 2003 Emerald Crest Shakopee 14 $2,460 - $3,068/Suite 2002 Valley View Jordan 51 $2.400 - $4.500/Suite 2000 Subtotal 132 ...,';[,:.' ;'.".. .'.'.>,....... ..... .. ....,...... .'.."'" ..d;,:....:.. .';,.i. .:,;"'.;. ."...;.. .. Keystone Prior Lakl:: 20 $3,250 - $3.500/STU 2003 Emerald Crest Shako pee 24 $3.900 - $4,260/Suite 20011'02 Subtotal 44 8KllJ:;EJ)'MJ.BSDJQiEACIlilTJES.. ... . i.,. .. ........;,......;,....; t,.:...;.;,.> "', <ie'; .;.'; ,'; . '.':. ...~... . Shako pee friendship Manor Shakopee 80 $110 - $216 per day N/A St. Gertrude's Health Center Shakopee 75 $174 - $340 per day N/A Subtotal 155 * 20% oflhe 54 units (II units) are income restricted ** Initial Prices Source: Max.field Research. Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 12 . We inventoried 10 market rate independent senior housing developments in the Prior Lake Market Area. Of these projects. four are adult rental buildings (206 units). four are adult ownership projects (158 units) and two are congregate projects (105 units). Seven of the 10 projects have been built since 2000, and except for Lynn Court (1987), all have been built since 1997. . Three of the four adult rental projects were developed by the Scott County HRA (Northridge Court, The Hamilton, and River City Apartments). While these projects do not have income restrictions, they have rents that are affordable to moderate income seniors who otherwise could not afford market rate housing. Creekside Estates opened in Prior Lake in 2004 and also has rents that are affordable. Eleven of the 54 units at Creekside Estates are income re- stricted to senior households with incomes of 50% median income. . In addition to rental projects, there are four adult/few-service ownership projects in the Mar- ket Area with a total of 158 units. These projects include three townhome developments and one condominium (Lakefront Plaza in Prior lake). Adult ownership projects typically have a target market that is younger and more active than adult rental projects. In addition, many residents of age-restricted owned projects would not consider moving into age-restricted rental housing. Thus, there is little market overlap between renter and owner projects. We estimate that 30% of the residents of adult ownership projects would have otherwise consid- ered moving into adult rental projects. . The Market Area contains two congregate projects - Keystone (60 units) in Prior Lake and Lynn Court (45 units) in Savage. The Keystone project also contains 27 assisted living units and 20 memory care units, while Lynn Court is a stand-alone building developed by the Scott County HRA. . Three assisted living projects have been developed in the Market Area since 2000 and a fourth is under construction. These include one project each in Prior Lake (Keystone), Sha- kopee (Emerald Crest) and Valley View (Jordan). The project under construction is S1. Gertrude's in Shakopee. . The two memory care projects in the Market Area are components of larger senior housing developments. Keystone contains 20 memory care units and Emerald Crest contains 24 memory care units. Both projects were built since 2001. €} MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 13 Pending Senior Housing Development in the Market Area Our interviews with representatives of the Market Area communities revealed the following pending senior rental housing developments in the Market Area that may come on-line in the fu- ture. Prior Lake Wensmann Homes is developing Jeffers Ponds, a 300+ acre development located south of Shepherd's Path. Included in the plans for Jeffers Ponds is a 204-unit senior cooperative that would be developed by Jim Deanovic. Since this project is preliminary, the unit mix and timing have not been determined. However, it likely would not come on-line before 2006 and, being an ownership project, would have minimal market overlap with an adult rental project. Savage The Scott County HRA has tentative plans for a second "affordable" adult building near its ex- isting Hamilton building in Savage. As proposed, Hamilton II will include 65 units positioned identical to the existing Hamilton. The project is still in the planning stages and will require the acquisition of several single-family homes. The earliest likely opening for the development would be 2006. The developer, Mary T. Inc, received preliminary approvals in 2003 to build a senior housing facility in Savage. The plans were for a campus that would contain 70 congregate units and 40 assisted living units. The congregate portion was expected to be made up of 30 one-bedroom units, 20 one-bedroom units with a den, and 20 two-bedroom units. The assisted living portion was proposed to consist of 40 suite-style units in two buildings. This project has not moved for- ward and the certainty of this project is unknown. SlIakopee A 40-unit assisted living facility is currently under construction adjacent to the St. Gertrude's nursing home. This development was originally going to include 70 independent senior units but that proposal was dissolved. While independent housing remains in the long-term plans, the tim- ing remains unknown. Jordall and New Market The Scott County HRA is pursuing plans to develop "affordable" adult buildings in Jordan and New Market. These building are tentatively proposed to contain 42 units and would be identical to their existing projects in Savage, Prior Lake, and New Prague. These projects are still in the planning stages and will require land acquisition. The earliest likely opening tor either of these developments would be late 2006 or early 2007. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 3 1, 2004 Page 14 Market Rate Independent Senior Rental Housing Demand Estimates Table 6 presents our demand calculations lor market-rate, independent senior rental housing in the Market Area in 2004 and estimates for 2009. In order to arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for independent senior housing, we have included all older adult, senior, and older senior households with incomes of$25,000 or more plus households with incomes between $15,000 and $25,000 who would qualifY with the proceeds from a home sale. We have estimated this proportion based on the homeownership rates for each age cohort. We estimate the number of age/income/asset-qualified households in the Prior Lake Market Area as of 2004 to total 6,749 households. Adjusting to include appropriate short-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.0% of house- holds age 55 to 64, 7.0% percent of households age 65 to 74, and 16.0% of households age 75 and older) results in a local short-term demand potential for approximately 3 I 5 market rate inde- pendent senior rental units. Independent demand in the Market Area is split into housing that offers no basic support services ("adult") and housing that offers meals and basic support services on an optional basis ("congre- gate"). Based on the age distribution of the Market Area population, we project that 45% of the Market Area demand will be for congregate housing (142 units) and 55% will be for adult hous- ing (174 units) in 2004. Additional demand will come from outside the Market Area. We esti- mate that seniors currently residing outside the Market Area will generate one-third of the long- term demand for senior housing - increasing total demand potential to 212 congregate units and 260 independent units. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Market Area, individuals who live just outside the Market Area and have an orientation to the area, as well as former residents who desire to return upon retirement. From this total, we subtract existing and pending units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow for sufficient consumer choice and turnover) in both congregate (with services) and adult (with- out services) units. Subtracting units at the two congregate projects (Lynn Court and Keystone) results in excess demand for 112 congregate units in 2004. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 15 TABLE 6 MARKET RATE INDEPENDENT SENIOR RENTAL HOlJSING DEMAND PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 2004 & 2009 21Hl-t 2009 A e of Householder A e of Houseoolder 55-64 65-74 75+ 55-64 65-74 75+ # of Households wi Incomes of $15.@1OO to S24,9991 165 245 310 198 324 373 (times) Homeownership Rate x 92% 87% 74% 92% 87% 74% (equals) Potential Market 152 213 229 182 282 276 (plus) # of Households wi Incomes 0€S25.000+1 + 3.860 1,585 710 5,280 2,299 886 (equals)Total Potential Market Base 4,012 1. 798 939 5,462 2,581 1.162 (times) Short-Term Capture Rate x 1.0% 7.0'% 16.0% x 1.0% 7.0% 16.0% (equals) Short-Term Demand Poteatial 40 126 150 55 181 186 Total Market Rate Demand Pote1llllia1 316 ., 421 ~ With Without With Without Services Services Services Sen'ices (times) % for housing w/services & w/o sen'ices x 45% x 55% x 45% x 55% (equals) Demand potential 142 174 190 232 (plus) Demand from Outside Madt.et Area (33%) + 70 + 86 + 93 + 114 (equals) Total Demand Potential 212 260 283 346 (minus) Existing Competitive lJnitl 100 168 100 297 (equals) Excess Demand 112 92 183 49 1 2009 income-qualified figures aclljusted tor intlation (S29K or more + homeowners wi inc. of$17.5K - 29K) 2 Competitive adult units include 5{JO/o of all Scott County HRA units and 30% of tix-sale developments, at 95% occupancy (market equilibrium). Source: Maxfield Research Inc. Among the competitive adlult units are four rental projects developed by the Scott County HRA and four ownership projects. We subtract only half of the units at these adult rental projects since they have atfordable rents and an estimated one-half of the units are occupied by moderate income seniors who would! not qualify for market rate rental housing. In addition, to account for market overlap between O\V\1ed and rented product, we subtract 30% ofthe ownership units. Subtracting these competittive units (168 units) results in excess demand for 92 adult/few- services units in the Market Area in 2004. Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of $29,000 or more and homeowners with incomes of$17,500 to $29,000 would qualify for market rate independent sen- ior rental housing in 2009. Considering the growth in the older adult base, the income distribu- tion of the older adult popelation in 2009, and accounting for pending senior projects in the de- velopment pipeline, our methodology projected that demand will increase to 183 congregate units and decrease to 49 adult units in 2009. Excess demand for adult units decreases as a re- MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31,2004 Page 16 suit of pending projects expected to come on-line over the next several years. These include three adult rental projects totaling 149 units planned by the Scott County HRA and 204 senior cooperative units planned by Jim Deanovic at Jeffers Ponds, located adjacent to Shepherd's Path. "Adult" Independent Senior Rental Housing Demand Prior Lake Market Area, 2004 to 2009 4lOO 350 .. .. - .. .. .. - - - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -.. .............. - .. .. .. .. .. .. - .. .. .- .. - .. - .. .. .. - - .. .. .. .. .. J 50 o 300 250 200 nso noo 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 . Existing Units . Excess Demand , i i i I I 350 "Congregate" Independent Senior Housing Demand Prior Lake Market Area, 2004 to 2009 so 300 - -. -. .. -- .. .. .. .. .- - - .. .. .. .. -. - .. .. .. .. - .. .. -- .. - .. .. .- - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. - .. 250 200 ISO 100 o 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 . Existing Units . Excess Demand MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 1 7 Assisted Living Demand Estimates Table 7 presents our calculations for the age/income-qualified market for assisted living housing in the Market Area for 2004 and 2009. The primary market for assisted living housing in the Market Area is seniors age 75 and over with incomes of$35,000 or more. An income of $35,000 and an 85% allocation ofthat income on housing translate to an affordable monthly fee of about $2,400, approximately the starting price for basic units at assisted living projects in the Metro Area. A portion of senior homeown- ers with lower incomes could also afford assisted living housing upon allocating the proceeds from the sale of their homes toward assisted living housing. It should also be noted that there are a significant number of seniors who will spend down their assets in order to avoid institutional care. Because the vast majority (90% according to an ALF A survey) of assisted living residents are single, our demand methodology separates the number of senior households that live alone from those that live with a spouse or other relative. We have further broken down the number of sen- ior households by household type and income. From these figures, we have applied acceptable capture rates to each income cohort and household type to derive the potential income-qualified market. As of2004, there were 565 age/income-qualified seniors in the Market Area. Because demand for assisted living housing is need-driven, we then reduce the age/income- qualified market to account for the potential market needing assistance. Studies by several gov- emment agencies indicate that about 30% of all non-institutionalized seniors age 75 and over need assistance with at least three activities of daily living and would be a potential market for assisted living housing. Applying this proportion to the age/income-qualified household base yields a potential assisted living market base of 170 seniors in 2004. From this total, existing assisted living housing in the Market Area must be subtracted. After subtracting the existing assisted living units less a seven-percent vacancy rate (85 units), there remains a potential unsatisfied demand for 85 units of assisted living housing in the Market Area in 2004. Due to the availability of home health care service providers, and the likelihood of family mem- bers providing limited assistance, we estimate that 65% ofthe age/income-qualified market needing assistance will be able to remain in their homes. The remaining 35% will need assisted living housing within the short-term. Applying this market penetration rate, results in a local short-tenn demand of 30 units in 2004. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. '<T 000 o f'l ll) ~ r"lQ... l- ll) J::J E ll) () ll) o .loi: () ~ c:l c ~ ~ ...: ~ Q~ z'-l ~=; :;~ '-l.... Q~", t-I;.:l=;g '-lZ~N ;;:;:;O/l ~~'-l'" .......::i:= Q~~ ~...l "'=; [;is; ~g: '" .... ll) c t ~ Q... c "iii =' o ::c: .... o '2 ll) r/) ~ V1 5:I: (5:I: p., oo("'f')Ol""') u :: u ~ - c.'" ",0:: U ';J-~~ t.r) trl If) N ~j) + c:'" ._ t- '" '" ~:I: :i:t ~~~~ OO'o:i"...c ~ c ~ u:I: o:I: Q... "'T N 0-. I.r. Nt-r-t'- N or, ~ 1) Q..c;j '" e<:: u ~'::J:.'it " " 0 ~~o + g '" 0 ':~ :I: :I: > -l \CJMO'~ O'\Ot-o '<:tM u E o u -= 0- 0- 5d+ OrM g trj ~ 0 ~~o v~~ ~ 5:1: o:t p... ~~~~ 8 " 5 2 - '" g.e<:: u ~t!-;!- VI '" '" N ~.;:. .5 t- '" -'" ~ :I: Z:I: t.r) 0 ''0./:) C"""l N 0 lr. r'i 'F) J2 c Vl ....:I: '0= p... Q() IF) t.r) O\~~~ ~ .3 ~ g.Q! U ~~~ ",,,,0 Nt-O u + c: or. 0 ~< .... ...... > .......l ~ t.r) \r. "'T 0\ 0.. ~ M M N 00 u E o u -= o g o NO- <Ag; ~.;.'c; ~(i')O ~~~ca iUN("i")C ...l<A<Af- a " ~ '" 6 "0 u ".: ;;; ::: 't " g u .: ~ ~ Q. ;;; o f- ~N o MN >< s~ M <U v-. ~ Z5 .~ ::s ~ ::J 01) O~ -< " ~ g ., "" a 6 "0 <U 'E ;;; 5- <U E o u c~ <U 'U ~ 00 ~-< ~ ~ " u c: ;s .~ ~ 01) c :.0 " " c ~ '" '" - " '" E ::: E! MD ~O II x "'8 00 oc . I ~ ~ ~ ~ ;...c u ;s ;a .~ ?l ~ > 01) '# c r--...~ ~ ~ .l:! c: ~ - ~~ " '" ~ E .~ ~ 35 .~] > 0- :.:: QJ "0 E ~ 0 '" u .~ ~ '" <U OJ) ~ c: ': (lJ .;!l Z " t.lJ Vl -a ~ 6- ~~ ~ VIM M :< ~o ". M M '" ~~ "'..c: M " '- ;!l c 0 <U..c: 0; ... ... 0 c: 'c c ~ '! u g ~~ 0."0 ~ ~ ~ 5 6"0 E E ... 'U ~ ~ t 0 O..c: ~~ ",'!!: '" '" E g. 'S~ JJ """0 + " JJ """0 + II ~ ~"O = '" 01 ~ ~ .,"0 ~ ~ 6~ "'''0 :~ ~ .~ ~ ; g~ 6 = ~ 4J '0 g c.. .€ .. o ... g.~ ... - p... '" ~= ] ;. .e~ u -= ..c: ~ '" ~ 'U Q! "0 ]! ;:; ~ u ;to: ... ::c u =: -< IiIil rr, IiIil =: Cl oJ IiIil ... ~ ~ -< ~ u S o Vl Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 19 We estimate that 35% of the demand for assisted living at the proposed project would come from seniors currently living outside the Market Area. Thus, we project that demand exists for 46 units of market rate assisted living housing in Market Area in 2004. Following the same methodology utilizing the projected incomes of older senior households in 2009, and subtracting the 40 assisted living units under construction at St. Gertrude's in Shako- pee, results in a total Market Area assisted living demand increasing to 48 units in 2009. Assisted thing Housing Demand Prior Like Market Area, 2004 to 2009 200 ] 75 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4tt - - - - - _48_ - - 24 32 150 - - 16 - - - - - - - - - - - 125 100 75 - 50 25 o 123 123 123 123 123 8S 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ; '-- L 0 Existing Units . Excess Demand j Memory Care Housing Demand Estimates Table 8 shows the age/income-qualified market for memory care housing in the Prior Lake Mar- ket Area for 2004 and 2009. Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated Market Area senior population in 2004 and multiplying by the 8.0% incidence rate of Alzheimer's/dementia. This yields a potential market of 450 seniors in the Market Area. According to data from the National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all persons with memory care impairments are a market for memory care units. This fig- ure takes into account that seniors in the early stages of dementia will still be able to live inde- pendently while those in the latter stages will require intensive medical care that would only be available in skilled care facilities. Applying this figure to the estimated population with memory impairments yields a potential market of 113 seniors in the Market Area in 2004. Because of the staff-intensive nature of dementia care, typical monthly fees for this type ofhous- ing start at about $3,000. Some of the income-qualified seniors will have high monthly incomes, however, most will be willing to spend down assets and/or receive financial assistance from fam- ily members to afford memory care housing. We estimate that 35% of Market Area seniors MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 20 would be income-qualified for memory care housing (this figures takes into account married couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs and allows for a sufficient income for the spouse to live independently). Multiplying the potential market (113 seniors) by 35%, results in a total of39 income-qualified seniors in the Market Area in 2004. TABLE 8 MEMORY CARE DEMAND PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 2004 & 2009 ~ 2004 ~ , 2009 I 65 + Population 5.625 7,385 (times) 8% Dementia incidence rate x 8% x 8% (equals) Estimated senior pop. with dementia = 450 = 591 (times) Percent needing specialized memory care assistance x 25% 25% (equals) Total need tor dementia care = 113 = 148 (times) Percent income/assest-qualified x 35% x 35% (equals) Total income-qualitied market base = 39 = 52 (plus) Demand from outside Market Area (35%) + 21 + 28 Total Demand for memory care units 61 80 (minus) Existing memory care units* - 41 - 41 (equals) Excess memory care demand in Market Area = 20 = 39 * Existing memory care units minus a 7.0% vacancy rate. Source: Maxfield Research Inc. We estimate that 35% of the overall demand for memory care units would come from outside the Market Area. Finally, we subtract existing memory care units in the Market Area (minus a 7% vacancy rate), resulting in an excess demand for 20 memory care units in 2004. Applying the same calculations to the age/income-qualified base in 2009 and accounting for memory care units in the development pipeline results in demand for 39 memory care units in 2009. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 21 Memory Care Housing Demand Prior Lake Man.et Area, 2004 to 2009 110 100 90 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - .. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 o 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 o Existing Units . Excess Demand l_l Subsidizedl Affordable Demand Estimates In general, most senior households with incomes in excess of $25,000, and senior homeowners with incomes of$15,000 or more can afford market rate senior housing without financial assis~ tance and do not need subsidized housing. Subsequently, seniors with incomes less than $15,000 and seniors with incomes between $15,000 and $25,000 who currently rent their housing are candidates for subsidized/affordable housing. Based on these factors, we estimate demand for subsidized senior housing in Prior Lake as shown in Table 9. The table shows a total potential market base for senior housing of 660 households in the Prior Lake Market Area in 2004. Not all ofthe age/income-qualified senior households will need or want subsidized/affordable housing. We estimate that 45% of the market base will need or want subsidized senior housing in the Market Area. Thus, demand exists for 297 subsi- dized/affordable senior housing units in the Market Area. Currently, there are four subsidized senior projects with a total of 216 units in the Market Area and four market rate projects developed by the Scott County HRA (206 units). We subtract all of the subsidized units and half of the Scott County HRA, since these projects have affordable rents that attract moderate income seniors who would not qualify for subsidized housing. Subtracting the existing subsidized/affordable units results in excess demand for 17 units in the Market Area. While there is strong growth in the demand for subsidized/affordable units. there are also three pending affordable projects by the Scott County HRA, including one each in Sav- age, Jordan, and New Market. Applying the same calculations to the age/income-qualified base in 2009 results in excess demand for 44 units (after accounting for the pending projects). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 3], 2004 Page 22 TABLE 9 SUBSIDIZED/AFFORDABLE SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA December 2004 Ageflncome-Qualified Market: Senior Households (65+) w/incomes below $15,0001 (plus) Senior households w/incomes between $15,000 and $25,000 who rent their housingl (equals) Potential market base (times) % of market base needing/wanting low-income housing (equals) Subsidized/affordable senior housing demand x 555 754 105 133 660 887 45% 45% 297 399 280 355 17 44 + (minus) Existing subsidized/affordable units (equals) Excess long-term demand 1 2009 income-qualified figures adjusted to account for inflation ($17.5K or less and renters $17.5K-$29K) Source: Maxfield Research Inc. Subsidized/Affordable Senior Rental Housing Demand Prior Lake Market Area, 2004 to 2009 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 o 48 -----------------------------------~8--- 7 - - - - - - - - - - -3-7- - - - - - -27- - - - 17 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 . Existing Units . Excess Demand MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 23 Demand for Skilled Nursing Beds As of2000, there were roughly 43,000 nursmg beds in the State of Minnesota. This represented just over 74 beds per 1,000 persons age 65 cmd older and 520 beds per 1,000 persons age 85 and older. As of 2000, Minnesota was ranked t Ith in the Country in the number of beds per senior population. Nursing home occupancy rates of90 to 92% have been common in the State, how- ever, an accelerating percentage of beds are being occupied by short-term (subacute/rehab) resi- dents. The State of Minnesota has been act~e in trying to reduce its bed count closer to the na- tional average (54 beds/l,OOO age 65+ and 457 bedsfl,OOO age 85+) and had earmarked a decline of 5,000 beds in the State between 2000 and 2002. The State missed that goal however, as only 3,500 beds were decertified. The State wilt continue to be aggressive in its efforts to reduce the State's bed count. However, while the State as whole is considered over bedded, there are pock- ets of the State were demand surpasses suppily. The Gap Analysis report conducted by the State in 2001 identified 12 Counties were this occurred, including Scott County. Comparing the bed to population ratios used to gauge market satUlll3tion (in the figure below) shows that the Prior Lake Market Area falls well below the bed/population ratios ofthe State and even the nation. beds/1000 pp 65+ beds/1000 pp 85+ llarket Area 27 301 MN 74 520 US 54 457 * Note MN ranks 11th in count The rapidly growing senior population in the Prior Lake Market Area will contribute to increas- ing numbers of seniors needing skilled care.,. despite the fact that accelerating declines in nursing home utilization rates will temper this grow1h as alternatives become more prominent (home health care, assisted living, adult day care, etc.). Our demand methodology for skilled nursilllg beds, shown in Table 10, first applies the percent of each of three senior age cohorts that needi skilled nursing care (1.2% of seniors age 65 to 74, 5.5% of seniors age 75 to 84, and 24% of seniors age 85 and older) to the Market Area popula- tion. This results in a total potential bed dennand of253 beds in 2004. In 2009, we have used reduced market penetration rates (0.7%, 4.0"" and 18 %, respectively) to account for the ex- pected continual decline in nursing home ullilization in the Market Area. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 24 TABLE 10 SKILLED NURSING DEMAND PRIOR LAKE MARKET AREA 2004 to 2009 200~ 2009 Age 65-74 75-84 85+ Nursing Care Necd* 1.2% 5.5% 24.0% Pop. 3,525 1,585 515 5,625 Bcd Nursing Care Bed Necd Need* Pop. Need - 42 0.7% 4,790 34 87 4.0% 1,900 76 124 18.0% 700 126 - 253 7.390 236 t . 253 236 + 108 + 100 - - 362 336 - 155 155 2.8% 2.1% = '207>: .- 181 Local Demand (plus) Demand Form Outside Study Area (30%) (e uals) Total Potential Bed Demand INumber of Existing Nursing Beds (beds/65+ pop.) IPoteotialNew,yBeds * Includes demand for long-term, post acute, rcspitc and hospice carc and is bascd on average Icngth of stay for each component. Sources: "Aging America, Trcnds and Projections"; 1997 Edition. National Long-Term Care Survcy (1999), Minnesota De t. of Human Services -A in Initiativc. Maxfield Rescarch Inc. Subtracting the existing skilled nursing beds in the Market Area from the local demand potential results in a potential support for about an additional 205 nursing home beds in 2004 and 180 beds in 2009. Skilled Nursing Bed Demand Prior Lake Market Area, 2004 to 2009 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 o 2004 2005 2006 o Existing Beds 2007 2008 . Excess Beds i i I i I i I 2009 I I ___J MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 25 Preliminary Conclusions As we understand, the proposed senior campus on the Shepherd's Path site would consist of a Phase I that would include 28 affordable adult units, 52 market rate adult units, 48 market rate assisted living units, and 20 market rate memory care units. There is also the potential for future phases that could include skilled nursing beds and additional senior housing products. Our preliminary assessment of the age/income-qualified senior base and inventory of existing and pending competitive units in the Prior Lake Market Area indicate that the senior products with the greatest potential to succeed over the next five years (based on unmet market demand) are congregate, memory care, and skilled care. While demand is growing for adult rental units (both affordable and market rate) in the Market Area, there is strong competition from several recently developed projects and also several pro- posed projects by the Scott County HRA. These include two recently built projects in Prior Lake - Creekside Estates and Lakefront Plaza. Our preliminary calculations also indicate that the assisted living market may be competitive in the short-term, with Keystone recently opening and St. Gertrude's under construction. The 40- unit St. Gertrude's assisted living will satisfy most of the demand calculated in 2004 (46 units). However, demand will continue to grow over the next five years to support an additional 48 as- sisted living units by 2009. Prelminary Demand Potential Prior Lake Market Area t.. 2004 . .12009. Adult Rental (~tlbj ~tlor~) 17 44 .~~ult Rental (Market Rate) 92 49 <;:()~g!~&a~~ I 12 183 :\_s~is~<!~.i\l.il1~ 46 48 ~~IlI()ry<;:are 20 39 Skilled Nursing Care 207 181 Note: No one project could capture 100% of Market Area demand Source: Maxtleld Research Inc. Our analysis revealed that Scott County is one of the few counties in the State that has an inade- quate number of skilled nursing beds to serve the senior population. In fact, there are no facili- ties in Savage or Prior Lake. Our calculations reveal the potential to support up to 180 beds in the Market Area through 2009. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mr. Allen Black Senior Housing Partners December 31, 2004 Page 26 Based on our preliminary calculations we recommend revising the plans for the first phase ofthe Shepherd's Path senior campus by replacing the adult rental housing with congregate housing and reducing the number of assisted living units by one-third to one-half. Our preliminary rec- ommendation for a Phase I that would come on-line in 2006 or 2007 would be about 75 to 90 congregate units, 28 to 32 assisted living units, and 20 memory care units. We would design the building to easily add additional assisted living units in the future. We also find support for fu- ture phases that would include skilled nursing care. While competitive, we also believe that de- mand will exist to support about 50 adult townhome units on the subject Site before 2009. It is important to note that these conclusions do not consider the price and positioning of the Shepherd's Path project relative to the competition, the quality of the subject Site, or other im- portant factors (i.e. architectural, marketing and management issues) that would likely affect the potential of a project on the subject Site. Even so, we believe there is sufficient demand in the Market Area to pursue the next level of research, which would assist in refining a development concept that would be most appropriate for the proposed site. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.