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Home My WebLink About7B - Maxfield - Scott County Needs MEETING DATE: AGENDA #: PREPARED BY: AGENDA ITEM: PRESENTATION: 16200 Eagle Creek Avenue S.E. Prior Lake, MN 55372-1714 CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT October 16, 2006 \\\ ~~nk Boyles, City Manage~ PRESENTATION FROM MAXFIELD ON HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL I INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS. The Scott County Housing and Redevelopment Authority periodically contracts with Maxfield to prepare studies to project housing and commercial/ industrial land demands. These studies provide important data which the County, cities and townships use for land planning purposes. Private developers use the information as well as one source of information for development purposes. The City Council will receive a report from Maxfield representatives as follows: Jay Thompson - Housing Needs Mary Bujold - Commercial/Industrial Following the report, there will be an opportunity for questions. The Council could consider the following questions: 1. Reports of this nature try to predict the future. Based upon experience, how accurate are they? 2. The residential unit needs for single family and town homes should add to the total need number. For Prior Lake they do not appear to. What would account for this? 3. The report indicates that State Highway 13 will be improved in Prior Lake. We have not received this message from MnDOT. Is this new data? 4. The single largest land need for commercial/ industrial is in the townships. Since no sewer and water service is available, shouldn't that need be shifted to locations where utilities are or will be available? 5. To what extent has annexation been factored into these numbers? 6. Is there a formal process for using this report so it is incorporated into land planning decisions? www.cityofpriorlake.com o 160'3 rvl1'H5~~.'44if.4230 / Fax 952.447.4245 'i -1 ~j ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ rl ~ C ~ ~ j J J ~ J SCOTT COUNTY HOUSfflG STUDY KEY FINDINGS Introduction Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the Scott County Housing and Redevelv}/Lllent Authority (Scott County HRA) to conduct a comorehensive housinl! needs assessment for Scott County. Ibis study is an update of a previous comprehensive housing needs assessment completed for the Scott County HRA in July 2002. Detailed calculations of housing demand lluLll2005 to 2015 and recommendations for housing products to meet demand over the short-term can be found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section of the report. The following are key highlights llULll the comprehensive housing needs assessment. Kev Findina I, Scott County is experiencing strong population and household growth as the urban fringe of the Twin Cities Metro Area is expanding into the County. By 2020, the Metropolitan Council projects that Scott County will have a population of about 194,000 people, up from about 89,500 people in 2000. 2. Demand is projected for over 23,000 new housing units in Scott County between 2005 and 2015. 3. Total projected housing demand by community from 2005 to 2015 is as follows: . Shakopee = 5,800 units (25% of housing demand) . Prior Lake = 5,400 units (23%) . Savage = 4,150 units (18%) . Elko - New Market = 2,500 units (11%) . Belle Plaine 1,550 units (7%) . New Prague = 1,300 units (6%) . Jordan = 1,100 units (5%) . High-Growth Twps. = 900 units (4%) . Low-Growth Twps. = 350 units (1%) 4. Between 2005 and 2015, about 87% of the housing demand is projected to be for owned housing and 13% for rental housing (including senior rental). 5. The high pJ.upOrtion of owner demand to renter demand between 2005 and 2015 is largely due to the ext..':'J.J.J.ely high number of families and individuals moving to the County in search of new single-family homes and for-sale townhomes. 6. Total projected rental de~and by community from 2005 to 2015 is as follows: . Shakopee = 940 units (32% of rental demand) · Prior Lake = 855 units (29%) . Savage = 455 units (16%) . Belle Plaine 245 units (9%) . Jordan = 190 units (6%) . Elko - New Market = 125 units (4%) . New Prague = 120 units (4%) MAXFIELD RESEARCH fflC. 1 SCOTT COUNTY HOUSING STUDY KEY FINDINGS 7. The projected rental demand of nearly 3,000 units in Scott County from 2005 to 2015 is shown by type below, Affordable and subsidized units are defined as those affordable to renters earning between 50% and 80% of median income and less than 50% of median income, respectively, . Market rate general-occupancy = 1,195 units (41% of rental demand) . Senior 1,055 units (36%) . Affordable general-occupancy 500 units (17%) . Subsidized general-occupancy = 180 units (6%) 8. After a couple of years of high vacancies, Scott County's overall market rate rental mar- ket has improved and new units will be needed to satisfy renter demand. However, de- velvpLllent costs have risen for several years while average rents have remained flat. Thus, to reach demand projections, some level of public/private partnership may be needed to create units with achievable rents. Ibis is particularly true in the County's smaller communities, 9. About 6% of total housing demand in Scott County between 2005 and 2015 is expected to be for senior housing. The following is senior housing demand by service level: . Affordable rental = 345 units . Adult J. "J....W = 215 units . Congregate = 290 units . Assisted living = 140 units . Memory care = 65 units . Adult for-sale 300 units 10. The total senior housing demand between 2005 and 2010 is double the number of exist- ing units in the County in 2006. Ibis strong demand is attributable to several factors, in- cluding a growing senior population, pent-up demand, a greater acceptance of senior housing, and a wider variety of housing types that appeal to a broader pool of potential tenantslbuyers. 11. Total for-sale demand by community from 2005 to 2015 is as follows: . Shakopee = 4,860 units (24% of for-sale demand) . Prior Lake = 4,545 units (23%) . Savage = 3,695 units (18%) . Elko - New Market 2,375 units (12%) . Belle Plaine = 1,305 units (6%) . New Prague = 1,180 units (6%) . Jordan = 910 units (5%) . High-Growth Twps, 900 units (5%) . Low-Growth Twps, = 350 units (1%) 12, Of the projected demand for about 20,000 for-sale housing units in Scott County from 2005 to 2015, apl'J.vAimately 11,500 (57%) will be for single-family homes. Very few new single-family homes priced under $325,000 are projected to be built to satisfy de- mand from moderate income buyers. Existing single-family homes and townhomes (ex- isting and new) will accommodate this demand for modestly priced homes. ~U!.LD RESEARCH INC. , 2 " I' 'I JL