HomeMy WebLinkAbout5A Thrive 2040 - Met Council 2040 Forecasts Update4646 Dakota Street SE
Prior Lake MN 55372
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PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA REPORT
MEETING DATE: MARCH 3, 2014
AGENDA #: 5A
PREPARED BY: DAN ROGNESS, COMMUNITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR
PUBLIC HEARING: NO
AGENDA ITEM: THRIVE 2040 – MET COUNCIL 2040 FORECAST UPDATE
DISCUSSION:
Introduction
The purpose of this item is to review the Met Council’s revised 2040 population,
household and employment forecasts. The Planning Commission may want to
provide input on whether these second forecasts seem accurate for Prior Lake.
History
In late 2013, the Metropolitan Council provided all cities and townships prelimi-
nary 2040 forecasts for population, households and employment. This is a nec-
essary first step in the 2040 comprehensive planning process (Thrive 2040). The
mayor submitted a letter dated November 26, 2013 that recommended the Met
Council’s initial forecasts be increased based on city staff analysis.
Current Circumstances
The Met Council’s two 2040 forecasts for Prior Lake are summarized as follows:
1. Population: 34,300 (Met Council’s initial forecast)
40,000 (City’s recommendation)
39,300 (Met Council’s revised forecast)
2. Households: 14,700 (Met Council initial forecast)
16,000 (City’s recommendation)
15,700 (Met Council’s revised forecast)
3. Employment: 11,800 (Met Council’s initial forecast)
14,150 (City’s recommendation)
12,500 (Met Council’s revised forecast)
Conclusion
City’s staff’s initial review of the latest 2040 forecasts show that the Met Council
has moved very close to the City’s recommendation for population and house-
holds. The employment forecast is not as close, but staff believes that this will
be adjusted up or down in following decades based on actual employment growth
in Prior Lake (including the Orderly Annexation Area).
ISSUES:
The Planning Commission should discuss the Met Council’s forecasts and
provide input to city staff; these figures are important since they provide the basis
for the upcoming 2040 comprehensive planning process in Prior Lake.
ALTERNATIVES:
Discussion Only.
RECOMMENDED N/A
MOTIONS:
ATTACHMENTS:
1. City Letter to the Met Council dated November 26, 2013.
2. Met Council 2040 forecast comparison, Scott County.
2